This should make your head explode

[LittleWyvern]

Uh... I have a 50% chance of selecting the correct 25% answer, so... B?

[Just_A_Guy]

If you maintain that the value 1/3 (or 33%) is the correct answer (as opposed to A, B, C, or D being the right answer regardless of it's value) then there is a 0% chance of randomly picking the correct answer from A, B, C, or D. Why? Because 1/3 or 33% isn't one of the options, it's akin to having this:

What year was the US Declaration of Independence adopted?

A) 1724 AD

B) 1984 AD

C) 600 BC

D) 2010 AD

If the correct answer is the value 1776 AD there is a 0% chance of it being randomly selected within the domain of A, B, C, and D.

A double-trick question, since there was never a "1776 AD".

There was an "AD 1776", though.

[Dravin]

I fixed the image MoE, I was curious and it didn't take long. Another way to look at it is a die, even if some sides share a value there is a 1/6 (or 1/n n=sides if you don't like your standard d6) of any given side coming up and a x/6th chance of any particular value showing up (x being the number of times the value shows up on the die). That they share values doesn't mean your die starts losing dimensions. In this case we're talking about a d4. :)

Edited November 2, 2011 by Dravin

[Suzie]

Oh my goodness...I come to lds.net to relax a bit and what I find? MarginofError messing up with people's heads.

[MarginOfError]

Oh my goodness...I come to lds.net to relax a bit and what I find? MarginofError messing up with people's heads.

I love you Suzie!

[slamjet]

I'll chalk it up to MOE's meaningless dribble as a result of him drinking too much sour milk and I'll not answer it. That way I'll have a 100% failure rate as well as a 100% success rate if not something in between with would be 0% or back to where I started, thinking that MOE drank too much sour milk (you know, all alien nation like).

Or this might be his new normal, which would be scary.

[MarginOfError]

I'll chalk it up to MOE's meaningless dribble as a result of him drinking too much sour milk and I'll not answer it. That way I'll have a 100% failure rate as well as a 100% success rate if not something in between with would be 0% or back to where I started, thinking that MOE drank too much sour milk (you know, all alien nation like).

Or this might be his new normal, which would be scary.

What's wrong with sour milk?

[slamjet]

I do believe I vurped a little.

[Suzie]

Well, I don't know about sour milk but I saw a couple of sour grapes answers.

[Dravin]

Before going to work to crunch some numbers Moe decides first to crunch some milk:

[Suzie]

I love you Suzie!

I love you too MarginOfError!

[Suzie]

Since I am not into Math, statistics and all that weird stuff....what's the answer for the question?

[MarginOfError]

Since I am not into Math, statistics and all that weird stuff....what's the answer for the question?

Vort actually had a pretty good explanation.

If you ignore the commentary about "it doesn't actually ask a question" and frame it in the context of a random selection probability problem, it is impossible to answer it correctly.

Since there are four possible selections, it stands to reason that the probability is 1/4 = .25. However, there are two events that return the answer .25, so the probability of selecting that answer is .50. Therefore, the correct answer must be B, but there is only 1 way to select B so the probability of randomly selecting the correct answer must be 1/4 = .25. However, there are two events that return the answer .25......

[FunkyTown]

It depends, MOE. By 'Random', are you assuming a truly even spread of 25% chance of taking A, B, C or D?

If so, then the answer would have to be a write-in answer of 0% - Nobody is correct.

The question you are asked is 'If you answered this question at random'. Since you are not answering this question at random, you can perform the write in.

The reason it is 0% is that:

1) The moment you answer a question correctly, the answer immediately shifts to an incorrect status, which renders your answer incorrect.

2) The sample size of 'you' indicates a sample of one. Since the one automatically causes a flip in the answer to render them 'Incorrect', the answer to the original is "I would write in: 0%"

[FunkyTown]

To further explain: There are two 'Yous' in this question. The first is you - You who are answering this question with foreknowledge. And then there is the theoretical 'you' - The 'If you'.

With the REAL you answering the question of the theoretical you, and no stipulation saying you must choose one of the answers the IF you chooses, the answer is a write-in - 0%.

[MarginOfError]

Y'all are no fun. I'm taking my ball now!

[Dravin]

Y'all are no fun. I'm taking my ball now!

Now what were the odds of that happening.

[FunkyTown]

Now what were the odds of that happening.

Retroactively, I guess 100%.

[mordorbund]

Oh my goodness...I come to lds.net to relax a bit and what I find? MarginofError messing up with people's heads.

I love you Suzie!

I love you too MarginOfError!

[sister_in_faith]

so what was the answer?

[Blackmarch]

I'm posting this everywhere because...well, I love it. Enjoy

If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A) 25%

B ) 50%

C) 60%

D) 25%

(was published on ANZSTAT mailing list a couple of days ago).

42%

[sister_in_faith]

okay, did not see that one coming.

[LittleWyvern]

so what was the answer?

Ah, so that's the reason this question makes your head explode: MoE isn't going to tell you the right answer! It's going to bother you forever!

*evil laugh*

[John11111]

Its the Russel Paradox there is no right answer.