LittleWyvern Posted November 2, 2011 Report Share Posted November 2, 2011 Uh... I have a 50% chance of selecting the correct 25% answer, so... B? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Just_A_Guy Posted November 2, 2011 Report Share Posted November 2, 2011 If you maintain that the value 1/3 (or 33%) is the correct answer (as opposed to A, B, C, or D being the right answer regardless of it's value) then there is a 0% chance of randomly picking the correct answer from A, B, C, or D. Why? Because 1/3 or 33% isn't one of the options, it's akin to having this:What year was the US Declaration of Independence adopted?A) 1724 ADB) 1984 ADC) 600 BCD) 2010 ADIf the correct answer is the value 1776 AD there is a 0% chance of it being randomly selected within the domain of A, B, C, and D.A double-trick question, since there was never a "1776 AD".There was an "AD 1776", though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dravin Posted November 2, 2011 Report Share Posted November 2, 2011 (edited) I fixed the image MoE, I was curious and it didn't take long. Another way to look at it is a die, even if some sides share a value there is a 1/6 (or 1/n n=sides if you don't like your standard d6) of any given side coming up and a x/6th chance of any particular value showing up (x being the number of times the value shows up on the die). That they share values doesn't mean your die starts losing dimensions. In this case we're talking about a d4. :) Edited November 2, 2011 by Dravin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suzie Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 Oh my goodness...I come to lds.net to relax a bit and what I find? MarginofError messing up with people's heads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarginOfError Posted November 3, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 Oh my goodness...I come to lds.net to relax a bit and what I find? MarginofError messing up with people's heads.I love you Suzie! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slamjet Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'll chalk it up to MOE's meaningless dribble as a result of him drinking too much sour milk and I'll not answer it. That way I'll have a 100% failure rate as well as a 100% success rate if not something in between with would be 0% or back to where I started, thinking that MOE drank too much sour milk (you know, all alien nation like). Or this might be his new normal, which would be scary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarginOfError Posted November 3, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 I'll chalk it up to MOE's meaningless dribble as a result of him drinking too much sour milk and I'll not answer it. That way I'll have a 100% failure rate as well as a 100% success rate if not something in between with would be 0% or back to where I started, thinking that MOE drank too much sour milk (you know, all alien nation like).Or this might be his new normal, which would be scary.What's wrong with sour milk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slamjet Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 I do believe I vurped a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suzie Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 Well, I don't know about sour milk but I saw a couple of sour grapes answers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dravin Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 Before going to work to crunch some numbers Moe decides first to crunch some milk: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suzie Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 I love you Suzie!I love you too MarginOfError! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suzie Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 Since I am not into Math, statistics and all that weird stuff....what's the answer for the question? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarginOfError Posted November 3, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 Since I am not into Math, statistics and all that weird stuff....what's the answer for the question?Vort actually had a pretty good explanation. If you ignore the commentary about "it doesn't actually ask a question" and frame it in the context of a random selection probability problem, it is impossible to answer it correctly. Since there are four possible selections, it stands to reason that the probability is 1/4 = .25. However, there are two events that return the answer .25, so the probability of selecting that answer is .50. Therefore, the correct answer must be B, but there is only 1 way to select B so the probability of randomly selecting the correct answer must be 1/4 = .25. However, there are two events that return the answer .25...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunkyTown Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 It depends, MOE. By 'Random', are you assuming a truly even spread of 25% chance of taking A, B, C or D?If so, then the answer would have to be a write-in answer of 0% - Nobody is correct.The question you are asked is 'If you answered this question at random'. Since you are not answering this question at random, you can perform the write in.The reason it is 0% is that:1) The moment you answer a question correctly, the answer immediately shifts to an incorrect status, which renders your answer incorrect.2) The sample size of 'you' indicates a sample of one. Since the one automatically causes a flip in the answer to render them 'Incorrect', the answer to the original is "I would write in: 0%" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunkyTown Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 To further explain: There are two 'Yous' in this question. The first is you - You who are answering this question with foreknowledge. And then there is the theoretical 'you' - The 'If you'.With the REAL you answering the question of the theoretical you, and no stipulation saying you must choose one of the answers the IF you chooses, the answer is a write-in - 0%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarginOfError Posted November 3, 2011 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 Y'all are no fun. I'm taking my ball now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dravin Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 Y'all are no fun. I'm taking my ball now! Now what were the odds of that happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FunkyTown Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 Now what were the odds of that happening. Retroactively, I guess 100%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mordorbund Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 Oh my goodness...I come to lds.net to relax a bit and what I find? MarginofError messing up with people's heads.I love you Suzie!I love you too MarginOfError! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sister_in_faith Posted November 3, 2011 Report Share Posted November 3, 2011 so what was the answer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackmarch Posted November 4, 2011 Report Share Posted November 4, 2011 I'm posting this everywhere because...well, I love it. EnjoyIf you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?A) 25%B ) 50%C) 60%D) 25%(was published on ANZSTAT mailing list a couple of days ago).42% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sister_in_faith Posted November 4, 2011 Report Share Posted November 4, 2011 okay, did not see that one coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleWyvern Posted November 4, 2011 Report Share Posted November 4, 2011 so what was the answer?Ah, so that's the reason this question makes your head explode: MoE isn't going to tell you the right answer! It's going to bother you forever!*evil laugh* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John11111 Posted November 7, 2011 Report Share Posted November 7, 2011 Its the Russel Paradox there is no right answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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