How fast is the church growing?

[Guest]

Does anyone know how many members a year are converted to the church compared to how many stay active . I'd love to know activity rates of those 15 milion members claimed.

[Vort]

At the beginning of the second (Saturday afternoon) session of each April General Conference, a statistical report is provided that gives the number of convert baptisms and baptisms of children of record for the previous year. It also gives a count of wards and branches, stakes, districts, and missions. The most recent statistical report from this last April is as follows:

Church Units
Stakes: 3,174
Missions: 418
Districts: 558
Wards and Branches: 30,016

Church Membership
Total Membership: 15,634,199
New Children of Record: 114,550
Converts Baptized: 257,402

Missionaries
Full-Time Missionaries: 74,079
Church-Service Missionaries: 31,779

Temples
Temples Dedicated in 2015 (Córdoba Argentina, Payson Utah, Trujillo Peru, Indianapolis Indiana, and Tijuana Mexico): 5
Temples Rededicated (Mexico City Mexico and Montreal Quebec): 2
Temples in Operation at Year End: 149

As far as I have ever heard, the Church does not provide statistics about activity rates.

[Jane_Doe]

29 minutes ago, Zarahemla said:

Does anyone know how many members a year are converted to the church compared to how many stay active . I'd love to know activity rates of those 15 milion members claimed.

It depends on what you mean "activity".  Do you mean whom show up to church every week?Do you mean those whom come to church on occasion  Do you mean those whom carry a testimony of the restored Gospel in their hearts?

Those are all different numbers, and none really perfect indicators of discipleship.  We can't know people's hearts.

Edited November 2, 2016 by Jane_Doe

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Jane_Doe said:

It depends on what you mean "activity".  Do you mean whom show up to church every week?Do you mean those whom come to church on occasion  Do you mean those whom carry a testimony of the restored Gospel in their hearts?

Those are all different numbers, and none really perfect indicators of discipleship.  We can't know people's hearts.

I'll take who attends sacrament meeting weekly because we count sacrament attendance now.

[Jane_Doe]

7 minutes ago, Zarahemla said:

I'll take who attends sacrament meeting weekly because we count sacrament attendance now.

You want to take: (number of people at sacrament this week) / (toll people on the rolls) = activity rate?

That's a big simplification.  Let's take a scenario-- George loves the Lord and comes to church whenever he can, which is every 1st and 3rd week of the month because he has to work at the hospital the other weeks.   George's co-worker Tim, whom also loves the Lord, can only come the 2nd and 4th weeks because he works the opposite shifts as George.  

Would you say that either George or Tim are inactive or should only "half" active because they can only come every other week?

(This was actually the exact situation my dad was in when I was growing up)

[Maureen]

@Zarahemla, I'm not sure if this will answer your question but give it a look and see if it helps.

http://www.cumorah.com/index.php

M.

[Guest MormonGator]

10 minutes ago, Jane_Doe said:

You want to take: (number of people at sacrament this week) / (toll people on the rolls) = activity rate?

That's a big simplification.  Let's take a scenario-- George loves the Lord and comes to church whenever he can, which is every 1st and 3rd week of the month because he has to work at the hospital the other weeks.   George's co-worker Tim, whom also loves the Lord, can only come the 2nd and 4th weeks because he works the opposite shifts as George.  

Would you say that either George or Tim are inactive or should only "half" active because they can only come every other week?

(This was actually the exact situation my dad was in when I was growing up)

Jane makes a good point. Define "active". I go out with the missionaries once a month, go out to dinner once a month with them, but only go to my ward once a month as well. I have a testimony of the restored gospel and I'm a convert. So am I part of what you would call active or...?  

Edited November 2, 2016 by MormonGator

[mordorbund]

1 hour ago, Vort said:

At the beginning of the second (Saturday afternoon) session of each April General Conference, a statistical report is provided that gives the number of convert baptisms and baptisms of children of record for the previous year. It also gives a count of wards and branches, stakes, districts, and missions. The most recent statistical report from this last April is as follows:

Church Units
Stakes: 3,174
Missions: 418
Districts: 558
Wards and Branches: 30,016

Church Membership
Total Membership: 15,634,199
New Children of Record: 114,550
Converts Baptized: 257,402

Missionaries
Full-Time Missionaries: 74,079
Church-Service Missionaries: 31,779

Temples
Temples Dedicated in 2015 (Córdoba Argentina, Payson Utah, Trujillo Peru, Indianapolis Indiana, and Tijuana Mexico): 5
Temples Rededicated (Mexico City Mexico and Montreal Quebec): 2
Temples in Operation at Year End: 149

As far as I have ever heard, the Church does not provide statistics about activity rates.

And the report from 2015 for comparison:

Church Units
Stakes: 3,114
Missions: 406
Districts: 561
Wards and Branches: 29,621

Church Membership
Total Membership: 15,372,337
New Children of Record: 116,409
Converts Baptized: 296,803

Missionaries
Full-Time Missionaries: 85,147
Church-Service Missionaries: 30,404

Temples
Temples Dedicated during 2014 (Fort Lauderdale Florida, Gilbert Arizona, and Phoenix Arizona): 3
Temples Rededicated (Ogden Utah): 1
Temples in Operation at Year End: 144

You can try tracking children of record over the years since one of the parents would need to be active for the Church to get that information, but you would need to recognize that that is also dependent on the declining (at least in America) fertility rates.

A better proxy may be the number of wards and branches, as those don't get split unless there's enough active people to carry both new organizations.

[Vort]

10 minutes ago, mordorbund said:

A better proxy may be the number of wards and branches, as those don't get split unless there's enough active people to carry both new organizations.

Stakes might be a good proxy, too. I see the number of stakes increased by 60 from 2014 to 2015. Interestingly, the number of districts decreased by three in that period. Districts of the Church are organized in a mission when there is no stake covering that area, so a decrease in districts suggests that those districts were absorbed into one or more newly created stakes.

[Guest]

9 hours ago, Zarahemla said:

Does anyone know how many members a year are converted to the church compared to how many stay active . I'd love to know activity rates of those 15 milion members claimed.

If you look at the numbers provided by Vort and Mordor, you'll find that the activity rate is around 50%.

[NeuroTypical]

Temples and churches cost money, paid for by tithes.  Tithes are usually not paid by inactive members.  I hear an occasional anecdotal account of reorganization of wards and stakes to account for declining membership (combining 2 wards into 1, or 3 stakes into 2, that sort of thing).  But anecdotes aside, the most likely reason we gained 400-ish wards and branches between '15 and '16, is because we gained enough active tithe payers to support the increased cost of additional real estate and buildings.

A more accurate measure would be total meetinghouses, but I'm thinking we didn't just absorb all 400 wards and branches into existing buildings.

(Yes, I am a bean counter.  Why do you ask?)

Edited November 2, 2016 by NeuroTypical

[Sunday21]

9 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Temples and churches cost money, paid for by tithes.  Tithes are usually not paid by inactive members.  I hear an occasional anecdotal account of reorganization of wards and stakes to account for declining membership (combining 2 wards into 1, or 3 stakes into 2, that sort of thing).  But anecdotes aside, the most likely reason we gained 400-ish wards and branches between '15 and '16, is because we gained enough active tithe payers to support the increased cost of additional real estate and buildings.

A more accurate measure would be total meetinghouses, but I'm thinking we didn't just absorb all 400 wards and branches into existing buildings.

(Yes, I am a bean counter.  Why do you ask?)

Good thinking! Also a bean counter!

[Guest]

1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

A more accurate measure would be total meetinghouses, but I'm thinking we didn't just absorb all 400 wards and branches into existing buildings.

I'm going to have to disagree.

Most ward buildings today have a capacity of 4 wards. But many buildings will only have two wards meeting in them.  In fast growing areas, they'll cut out Sunday School (no, they're not phasing out Sunday School) and have 5 wards meet in one building until they can get a new one built.  Other wards meet in reduced sized buildings until membership in the area picks up.  Then they can always add onto the building later to accommodate a greater number of wards.

So the number of meeting houses is not an accurate count either.

[mordorbund]

10 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

I'm going to have to disagree.

Most ward buildings today have a capacity of 4 wards. But many buildings will only have two wards meeting in them.  In fast growing areas, they'll cut out Sunday School (no, they're not phasing out Sunday School) and have 5 wards meet in one building until they can get a new one built.  Other wards meet in reduced sized buildings until membership in the area picks up.  Then they can always add onto the building later to accommodate a greater number of wards.

So the number of meeting houses is not an accurate count either.

Yeah, I was going to mention that meeting houses/temples would also be inaccurate as it would be tied to economic factors. 

[omegaseamaster75]

Every Quarter the Ward clerk is required to submit a report. 

This is how they calculate Sacrament attendance:

Sacrament Meeting Attendance
To determine the average sacrament meeting attendance, add the total number attending each sacrament meeting during the last month of the quarter and divide by the number of meetings held. Count all persons attending sacrament meeting, including members, nonmembers, and visitors. Do not count any ward members not in attendance, such as members serving missions, away performing other Church assignments, or attending other wards.

All other information is tracked at church headquarters this includes: 

Members who are sealed to their spouse in the temple
Endowed members with a current temple recommend
Young men advanced in the Aaronic Priesthood at the appropriate age
Males ages 18–25 who are serving or who have served full-time missions
Adult males holding the Melchizedek Priesthood and prospective elders advanced to the Melchizedek Priesthood
Converts baptized and confirmed in the last 12 months
Adults and youth who have submitted ancestor names for temple ordinances

Most of this information is acquired by the individual ward clerks entering the pertinent information into MLS.

In response to the OP's question about activity rates we can't quantify what is in a person's heart or their reasons for not attending regularly. 

If someone were to ask me about activity rates I would say activity rate is about 30-35% of baptized members who attend regularly. This is outside the mormon belt where church attendance is not cultural. Inside of that 30-35% who attend regularly 20-25% of the 35% do the heavy lifting i.e. leadership positions etc. so a percentage of a percentage make the wheels turn.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, omegaseamaster75 said:

If someone were to ask me about activity rates I would say activity rate is about 30-35% of baptized members who attend regularly. This is outside the mormon belt where church attendance is not cultural. Inside of that 30-35% who attend regularly 20-25% of the 35% do the heavy lifting i.e. leadership positions etc. so a percentage of a percentage make the wheels turn.

Just a curiosity.  What do you base your guess of 30% to 35% on?

[omegaseamaster75]

Ill use my ward as an example, and in the people's republic of California I think it is a good representation of high activity levels.

We have potential Sacrament meeting attendance of 533 people, our average for the last quarter was 205 or 39% Now this was high because we do the children's sacrament program in September on purpose because it is a sweeps month and attendance that day was 260ish. 

Our normal Sacrament attendance runs about 175-200. So pretty much right on the 35% mark. 

[Jane_Doe]

51 minutes ago, omegaseamaster75 said:

Ill use my ward as an example, and in the people's republic of California I think it is a good representation of high activity levels.

We have potential Sacrament meeting attendance of 533 people, our average for the last quarter was 205 or 39% Now this was high because we do the children's sacrament program in September on purpose because it is a sweeps month and attendance that day was 260ish. 

Our normal Sacrament attendance runs about 175-200. So pretty much right on the 35% mark. 

But again, this method of calculating attendance does not account for people who can only attend part-time, nor does it reflect actual belief.

[NeuroTypical]

My ward in Colorado has around 450 members, and an average sac attendance of around 235.   That's a tad more than 50%.  Yep, some people show some weeks and not others, so the total individuals in a month would be higher than 235. 

[omegaseamaster75]

1 hour ago, Jane_Doe said:

But again, this method of calculating attendance does not account for people who can only attend part-time, nor does it reflect actual belief.

No it does not, but if you HAD to put a number on it this is the number I would put.

[omegaseamaster75]

1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

My ward in Colorado has around 450 members, and an average sac attendance of around 235.   That's a tad more than 50%.  Yep, some people show some weeks and not others, so the total individuals in a month would be higher than 235. 

Where in Colorado are you? 50% is a high number for attendance.

[NeuroTypical]

Colorado Springs-ish.  LDS is absolutely a minority here.

[Sunday21]

Sweeps week, huh? I once attended a small ward and I used to scheme how to juice up attendance so that we could get an extension. I tried to pull the ward mission leader into my evil plots but he was too straight arrow. I figured some interesting guest speakers on specific dates might do it. I guess the process is more complicated than I thought! You can't fool salt lake!

[bytebear]

I was in a phase one building, it was basically the cultural hall, and the pulpit stand was where the overflow area would be, and that was it.  It was tiny, and they were begging for converts so they could expand their building.  The non-Mormons, if they didn't think we were weird already, thought our half church was totally odd.  It didn't help that the steeple was detached next to the building.

But based on my analysis of ward attendance and total number of wards, I estimate church attendance is somewhere between 6 and 9 million.   But considering that maybe 20% are part timer attendees, I would say 50% is a fair estimate.

[Jane_Doe]

29 minutes ago, bytebear said:

I was in a phase one building, it was basically the cultural hall, and the pulpit stand was where the overflow area would be, and that was it.  It was tiny, and they were begging for converts so they could expand their building.  The non-Mormons, if they didn't think we were weird already, thought our half church was totally odd.  It didn't help that the steeple was detached next to the building.

But based on my analysis of ward attendance and total number of wards, I estimate church attendance is somewhere between 6 and 9 million.   But considering that maybe 20% are part timer attendees, I would say 50% is a fair estimate.

My ballpark estimates are 1/3 super regular every week, super active in every way.  1/3 comes occasionally, nurtures their testimony, but not consistently.  1/3 just inactive in their testimony.