MrShorty

vaccines at the intersection of religious liberty and public health

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1 hour ago, MarginOfError said:

The vaccine may not have contributed much to the reduction in mortality. But it certainly contributed to the reduction in cases.

The line of questioning was an attempt to gather more background data and address alternative explanations for the resultant data to determine how certain we should be with that assertion.

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And there can be no measles-mortality without contracting measles

I can't argue that point. But that appears to take us into circular logic territory.  If we assume it is effective, then this is a profound argument to get vaccines.  If they are not effective, then it is a meaningless argument.

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(to say nothing of any of the complications and/or side effects it can bring).

Complications are certainly a valid argument that we have not delved into in this thread.  It is worth looking into.

But keep in mind that one side effect of contracting the disease naturally is that there appears to be a reduced likelihood of contracting Hodgkins Lymphoma later in life.  Unknown if there is an actual causal relationship.  But a correlation has been documented.  The logic behind the possible causal relationship is that the antibodies from natural disease are different than antibodies from vaccines.  And some "brother" diseases (different, but in a similar category genetically) are fought off by natural antibodies, but not vaccine-induced antibodies.

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I wouldn't call this "small benefit"

I would agree if we were certain of the causal relationship.  There doesn't appear to be sufficient data to determine if the general idea you're espousing is accurate.

Here's the ironic part of our exchange.  I was of the opinion that MMR was one of the biggies that we should all get.  But with the data you've shown me, I now have reason to doubt its efficacy.  Basically, the conceptual and causal arguments prior to this thread had me already.  I thought it was a no brainer.

But when you put the graph of the cases of Measles from 1900 to 1963, it actually gave me pause.  I've seen too many graphs of things that follow this pattern to ignore it.  Too many times, this pattern has indicated that the purported "good idea" really didn't do anything.  I'm not certain that is the case here.  But I'm not really seeing any answers statistically to answer that question either way.  And your responses have the tenor of assumption and belief rather than scientific evaluation.  That is what gives me pause.

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image.png.1fbbd3cd4bf4585568c9e9426344b736.png

This graph is indeed helpful.  It shows that there was a very stark change in the slope of the line of best fit from 1963 to 1968.  Without this, the slope prior to 1963 could easily be interpreted as going from 1960 to around 2000 (which was the beginning of the second time period in your spreadsheet) to the same level as previously discussed.

The fact that this slope changes so abruptly is pretty damning evidence against the anti-vaxxer crowd.  Then the only other common argument I know of is (as Mikbone was saying) if there was something else culturally or technologically that would explain such a shift.  At that point, I'd say that the onus is on the anti-vaxxer crowd to prove it -- such as, show that in less developed countries, there was no such shift while having access to vaccines or something along those lines.

So, what's up with the blips in the 70s and the one blip around 1990?  Anyone know?

Edited by Mores

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2 hours ago, MarginOfError said:

This is why I question mandatory seat belt laws for adults--an adult that doesn't wear a seat belt injures himself only.

So the widows and orphans of the idiot who doesn't buckle up or rides a motorcycle without a helmet should not be allowed a full draw on government benefits? Because if we're going to allow such personal decisions, we must also allow the consequences of such personal decisions.

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On 6/19/2019 at 11:54 AM, Mores said:

What I'm wondering is if the vaccine only keeps us "comfortable".  Is the actual mortality largely due to other factors (as MB suggests)?  It seems the data is insufficient to answer these fairly basic questions.

If you want to know if it's just "keeping you comfortable" or have real results... go to the Philippines - where vaccination is STILL a factor in death rates of children.

@MarginOfError, how easy can you pull stats from there?

Edited by anatess2

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Just now, anatess2 said:

If you want to know if it's just "keeping you comfortable" or have real results... go to the Philippines - where vaccination is STILL a factor in death rates of children.

Explain.  Do you have the stats to show this?

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On 6/19/2019 at 11:59 AM, mikbone said:

Satan’s platform was mandatory compliance.  I will continue to fight mandatory compliance whenever possible.

This is silly.  You live in the USA.  It would be different if you live in China.  Mandatory compliance in the USA means - you can't avail of public schools.  Wow, such freedom.

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13 minutes ago, Mores said:

Explain.  Do you have the stats to show this?

I asked MOE to pull it.

We had an issue with the dengue vaccine that had to be pulled as it was tainted and caused death to children - the source of the vaccine has been put in jail for negligence.  Our stupid politicians - due to political pursuits - used it as a "scare tactic" against the administration.  This caused parents to refuse vaccines in general and not just dengue due to the scare.  We already have low herd immunity due to affordability - we only achieve herd immunity because vaccines are free.  Before that, we were on our way to eradicating measles.  It didn't take long for a measles outbreak to occur in the Philippines after this fiasco causing, I think it was 49 deaths within a couple of months.  And, Australia - who have been declared measles free for a decade - experienced cases of measles brought to their shores by Filipino travelers but it did not cause an outbreak as they have herd immunity.  But, we still had to fight over immigration bans between our countries.

Edited by anatess2

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10 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

I asked MOE to pull it.

OK.  Thanks.

But I was asking you to explain what you meant by "go to the Phillipines."  Did you mean that you can show that both the occurrence rate and the mortality rate differences were directly related to the use of vaccines in the Phillipines?

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We had an issue with the dengue vaccine that had to be pulled as it was tainted.

That's all well and good.  But remember that my big complaint about some vaccines being mandated is the necessity for them due to mortality and occurrence rates (as well as some special factors that may be disease specific).  Dengue has a high mortality rate.  So, I'd be all for that vaccine if it were proven effective and safe.

For something like Dengue that has a potential mortality rate around 50%, I'd accept a vaccine if the vaccine had a mortality rate of 1/10,000.  Those numbers are negotiable.  But you get my meaning.

Basically if the disease mortality rate is significantly higher than the vaccine mortality rate, then I'd probably be all for it.  That's why I got the MMR and DPT.  But we gotta take some other minor factors into consideration as well.  That's why I don't bother getting the HPV for myself or my family.

Edited by Mores

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8 minutes ago, Mores said:

OK.  Thanks.

But I was asking you to explain what you meant by "go to the Phillipines."  Did you mean that you can show that both the occurrence rate and the mortality rate differences were directly related to the use of vaccines in the Phillipines?

That's all well and good.  But remember that my big complaint about some vaccines being mandated is the necessity for them due to mortality and occurrence rates (as well as some special factors that may be disease specific).  Dengue has a high mortality rate.  So, I'd be all for that vaccine if it were proven effective and safe.

For something like Dengue that has a potential mortality rate around 50%, I'd accept a vaccine if the vaccine had a mortality rate of 1/10,000.  Those numbers are negotiable.  But you get my meaning.

Basically if the disease mortality rate is significantly higher than the vaccine mortality rate, then I'd probably be all for it.  That's why I got the MMR and DPT.  But we gotta take some other minor factors into consideration as well.  That's why I don't bother getting the HPV for myself or my family.

I don't know if you were able to read the whole thing properly as I have this habit of editing my posts a lot.  This is not about the dengue vaccine.  This is about a MEASLES outbreak after Filipino parents refused vaccinations en-masse due to the dengue scare.

I did not get HPV vaccines for my family.  We don't do flu shots either.  We have MMR, DPT, meningitis, and Hepatitis.  My kids also got the TB because they travel to the Philippines a lot.

Edited by anatess2

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31 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

I guess you really didn't understand my line of questioning. 

.

.

.

:unsure:<_<-_-:hmmm:Forget about it.

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1 hour ago, anatess2 said:

This is silly.  You live in the USA.  It would be different if you live in China.  Mandatory compliance in the USA means - you can't avail of public schools.  Wow, such freedom.

I homeschool silly.

I don’t do PTA, or teacher conferences, or paperwork, or doctor notes, or sex / gender education, or lack of accountability, or separation of church and state, or liberal indoctrination, etc

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Reported measles cases spiked in 2017, as multiple countries experienced severe and protracted outbreaks of the disease. This is according to a new report published today by leading health organizations. 

Because of gaps in vaccination coverage, measles outbreaks occurred in all regions, while there were an estimated 110,000 deaths related to the disease.

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The epidemiologist who reported that Measles was eradicated was an idiot.

Just saying.

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2 hours ago, mikbone said:

I homeschool silly.

I don’t do PTA, or teacher conferences, or paperwork, or doctor notes, or sex / gender education, or lack of accountability, or separation of church and state, or liberal indoctrination, etc

And you think mandatory vaccinations is akin to Satan’s plan?  Hello... if it was akin to Satan’s plan you’d either be fatally injected by now or at the very least rotting in prison.  Yet, you’re still there.  Unvaccinated and exercising your free speech on the internet.

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34 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

And you think mandatory vaccinations is akin to Satan’s plan?  Hello... if it was akin to Satan’s plan you’d either be fatally injected by now or at the very least rotting in prison.  Yet, you’re still there.  Unvaccinated and exercising your free speech on the internet.

I said mandatory compliance was Satan’s plan.

And that I don’t appreciate anyone telling me what I have to do.

I agree with Joseph Smith  -  Teach them correct principles and let them govern themselves.

Your logic escapes me.

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12 hours ago, mikbone said:

I said mandatory compliance was Satan’s plan.

And that I don’t appreciate anyone telling me what I have to do.

I agree with Joseph Smith  -  Teach them correct principles and let them govern themselves.

Your logic escapes me.

The logic is simple.  Saying that a Government Mandate is akin to Satan's Plan is idiotic.  Jesus Christ gave us LAWS.  We are free to follow it or not but there is consequence for not following Christ's law.  Just because Christ MANDATES that we follow Him to enter the Kingdom of Heaven doesn't mean He is akin to Satan stripping us of our free agency.  In the same token, a Democratic Government creating Laws to organize society is not akin to Satan stripping us of our free agency.  In the USA, you are still free to choose to follow a law or not - with consequence.

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12 hours ago, mikbone said:

I said mandatory compliance was Satan’s plan.

So, does this philosophy extend to stuff like taxes and having a driver's license? I'm just wondering how close you are to being one of those Sovereign Citizens I keep seeing on Youtube.

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13 hours ago, anatess2 said:

f it was akin to Satan’s plan you’d either be fatally injected by now or at the very least rotting in prison.  Yet, you’re still there.  Unvaccinated and exercising your free speech on the internet.

Satan’s plan does not include fatal injections.  Or rotting in prison.  His plan was stupid nonsense.  It would have never worked.  His plan was that everyone would be a stupid drone and follow mandatory compliance.  And that everyone would be saved without learning anything.

You are confusing his current Plan B with his originally proposed Plan A.

I am vaccinated, by choice for the vaccines that make sense.  If they ever figure out an influenza vaccine that has a reasonable success rate I might take that too.  I won’t take the HPV.  I have only had one sex partner my entire life and I trust her.

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49 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

So, does this philosophy extend to stuff like taxes and having a driver's license? I'm just wondering how close you are to being one of those Sovereign Citizens I keep seeing on Youtube.

Paid .25 M in taxes last year.

Current CA DL too.

I am quite the patriot.

 

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14 hours ago, mikbone said:

I said mandatory compliance was Satan’s plan.

 

35 minutes ago, mikbone said:

Paid .25 M in taxes last year.   Current CA DL too.

 

So, just out of curiosity, how do you reconcile these?  When you pay taxes and have a DL, are you going along with Satan's plan?  Or do you figure compliance isn't mandatory, you just do these things out of voluntary choice?

(Full disclosure - I honestly do know a good brother just inches away from going full-out sovereign citizen.  He's a clerk like me.  People avoid the clerk's office because of all the political talk.  I'm just wondering if I should expect posts from you about how when you're driving you're actually travelling...)

Edited by NeuroTypical

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1 hour ago, mikbone said:

Satan’s plan does not include fatal injections.  Or rotting in prison.  His plan was stupid nonsense.  It would have never worked.  His plan was that everyone would be a stupid drone and follow mandatory compliance.  And that everyone would be saved without learning anything.

At the risk of beating the same drum I've had for years: Satan's "plan", such as it was, was to exalt himself by destroying the agency of man. That's it. There was no other "plan". Satan pretended to be able to save all from sin, in exchange for receiving all glory and honor. This pretense was, of course, a lie. Satan could not save even himself, much less anyone else. He fomented rebellion and discord for his own perceived gain.

I see no scriptural indication that Satan had any "plan" that involved coercion or "mandatory compliance". Salvation means being cleansed from sin, and Satan claimed he would just extend that gift to all, so all glory and honor be to him. It was a lie, from our perspective a seemingly transparent lie, but one that was still pretty successful in achieving its purpose. The consequences of that lie and the war that followed continues to destroy us and our children.

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1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

So, does this philosophy extend to stuff like taxes and having a driver's license?

I believe the real question is about how much risk is society willing to accept vs. the burden placed upon a person who may wish to object -- with consideration for the effectiveness of the proposed solution.  Three variables that must all be examined.  For example, get rid of all guns and we will never have any gun deaths.  Well, theoretically, that's true.  But the reality is not so simple as that.

In the past, I've believed that there were reasonable people with reasonable requirements who would reasonably balance those variables.  But today, it seems that if there is a 1/million chance that something may happen, that is just too big a risk to accept.  And we MUST implement mandatory requirements without really understanding the effectiveness or the practical burdens created by those solutions.

To state again, I'm not anti-vaccine.  I just want some reasonable standards to determine the proper balance between risk and burden.

The primary one I'm wondering about is the HPV vaccine.  I hear the statistics and probabilities arguments.  They're good numbers, I'm sure.  But on a practical level, does this justify mandating it?  The chaste individual poses no danger to anyone.  Why mandate something for them?

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1 hour ago, Vort said:

At the risk of beating the same drum I've had for years: Satan's "plan", such as it was, was to exalt himself by destroying the agency of man. That's it. There was no other "plan". Satan pretended to be able to save all from sin, in exchange for receiving all glory and honor. This pretense was, of course, a lie. Satan could not save even himself, much less anyone else. He fomented rebellion and discord for his own perceived gain.

I see no scriptural indication that Satan had any "plan" that involved coercion or "mandatory compliance". Salvation means being cleansed from sin, and Satan claimed he would just extend that gift to all, so all glory and honor be to him. It was a lie, from our perspective a seemingly transparent lie, but one that was still pretty successful in achieving its purpose. The consequences of that lie and the war that followed continues to destroy us and our children.

I don’t think my comment implied anything else.

 

“The contention in heaven was—Jesus said there would be certain souls that would not be saved; and the devil said he could save them all, and laid his plans before the grand council, who gave their vote in favor of Jesus Christ. So the devil rose up in rebellion against God, and was cast down, with all who put up their heads for him.” (Teachings of the Prophet Joseph Smith)  Moses 4:1

Yes Satan’s campaign was a lie.  But the lie that hooked all his followers was the idea that all could be saved via manditory compliance.  His followers followed him because he convinced them that he could save them.

He still uses this technique by preaching security and dependence on government etc...

Whenever anyone tries to promise me some sort of security I immediately stop listening.

I believe in self-reliance, growth though work / critical problem solving, and of course the grace of Jesus Christ.

Edited by mikbone

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1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

So, just out of curiosity, how do you reconcile these?  When you pay taxes and have a DL, are you going along with Satan's plan?  Or do you figure compliance isn't mandatory, you just do these things out of voluntary choice?

I follow Jesus Christ.

So I give to Caesar.  But I preach and vote for limited government, and against the Nanny State.  

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