SETI, Extraterrestrials, UFO’s and G-d (Devine beings)

[zil2]

1 hour ago, Vort said:

He (my grandpa) was a young husband and father of 29 or 30 during WWII and recruited to work at Hanford as a reactor operator.

So, during WWII, your grandpa was unsure how many children he fathered?

[Jamie123]

1 hour ago, mikbone said:

Nah, its simple. 

How many stars are in the galaxy.  What percent have habitable planets.  Which percent of those support life.  Which percent of those a actually have intelligent life.  Which percent of those have progressed to have communication via the electromagnetic spectrum.  And the length of time that the communication persists.  

The equation only gives a probability of us being able to intercept those communications.  Based upon the variables that are chosen.

The Drake equation does not take into account the possibility of deity or the Star Trek Prime Directive (prohibiting Starfleet’s members from interfering with the natural development of alien civilizations.)

When Enrico Fermi was asked to calculate the probability based upon variables he chose.  He famously responded, “Where is everybody?”

 

This is the great part about the Drake equation. Enrico Fermi was a freakin genius.  If he thought we should have already been contacted…  Then, there is probably something or someone interfering / preventing us from communicating with the other intelligences.   Thus, There is a God.

Or Starfleet’s prime directive is functioning.

Or something else is out there preventing our communication.

There are several different forms of the Drake equation. You're right, there is a version which is a simple multiplication of probabilities and other dimensionless numbers. However, the classic version (which I was addressing) includes the rate of star formation and the average civilization lifetime.

[mikbone]

1 hour ago, Jamie123 said:

There are several different forms of the Drake equation. You're right, there is a version which is a simple multiplication of probabilities and other dimensionless numbers. However, the classic version (which I was addressing) includes the rate of star formation and the average civilization lifetime.

There is only one Drake equation.  That is the one I was describing.  Although there have been modifications (not approved by Drake).

Still a very simple equation.  The inherent problem is that the equation does not take into account the possibility of deity, or interference from a more technically advanced civilization.

The following is an interactive drake equation calculator.  Knock yourself out.

https://www.spacecentre.nz/resources/tools/drake-equation-calculator.html

The following image is probably even more instructive.  The blue dot in the inset bottom right is how far Earth Radio transmission signals have traveled since we became intelligent enough to make them.

Not very far…

Because the Milky Way diameter is 100,000 light years across.  If there was one intelligent species halfway across the Milky way, it would take 50,000 years for our message to reach them and another 50,000 years for the return response.  

Space is vast.  And ain’t nobody got the patience for this type of conversation.

Edited April 21, 2023 by mikbone

[Vort]

2 hours ago, Vort said:

He (my grandpa) was a young husband and father of 29 or 30

Um, to be clear, my grandpa was 29 or 30 years old. He was not the father of 29 or 30 children. *blush* At least I'm not, like, a technical writer or anything...

[Vort]

1 hour ago, zil2 said:

So, during WWII, your grandpa was unsure how many children he fathered?

D'oh. zil already called me on it. How humidifyin'.

[NeuroTypical]

Imma just leave this here and see what I catch.

 

[Jamie123]

2 hours ago, mikbone said:

There is only one Drake equation.  That is the one I was describing.  Although there have been modifications (not approved by Drake).

And it is also the exact same equation I said was the special equilibrium case (except that for brevity I amalgamated all the stacked fractions into one single quantity n, the average number of civilizations per star). Like it or not, the assumptions DO give rise to a first order ODE, which does (I agree) have a very simple solution.

The point I was making is that the Drake equation as you state it is the equilibrium case only - not the general case.

P.S. looking back over this thread I think you have confused two forms of the equation. The version in the online app you linked is based on star formation rate. In other messages you have talked about the "number of stars in the galaxy" (which is not the same thing, any more than population is the same as birth rate). If you're going to use the number of stars then the last factor in the equation needs to be the fraction of the planet's lifetime that a communicating civilization exists. If you multiply by the average length of time it exists, you'll get something with the dimensions of time, which is meaningless. Carl Sagan uses the number-of-stars version correctly:

 

 

Edited April 21, 2023 by Jamie123

[NeuroTypical]

Heh.  They say our two great nations are allies, and yet:

[Jamie123]

27 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Heh.  They say our two great nations are allies, and yet:

Ugh try this link instead:

We could call this the "static form" of the equation, and the other the "dynamic equilibrium" form. Its important to stick to one or the other. If you mix them then your result is dimensionally incorrect.

(Shannon's formula for differential entropy is not dimensionally correct either, but that is a rare exception where it doesn't matter. Here dimensionality does matter A LOT!)

 

Edited April 21, 2023 by Jamie123

[NeuroTypical]

7 minutes ago, Jamie123 said:

Ugh try this link instead:

Same deal.  Have you tried converting it to gallons?  We don't do YouTube in pounds sterling on this side of the pond, mate.

[Jamie123]

3 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Same deal.  Have you tried converting it to gallons?  We don't do YouTube in pounds sterling on this side of the pond, mate.

Oh we have gallons too! It's just that they're bigger and better than yours!

Try this instead

 

[NeuroTypical]

That worked - yay Dailymotion!

I miss Carl Sagan.  And Vangelis, who did the music for his Cosmos series.  

Billyun!

[Vort]

For some reason, I was never a huge Carl Sagan fan. Since his death I have found several things that I really admire about him. For example, I think he was honest with himself, always an attractive trait. Another example: Though he was a confirmed atheist, I didn't see that he bore particular ill will toward religious people, a refreshing change from today's in-your-face, hateful, openly insulting atheists that have become so common.

[Jamie123]

Hmmm...nearly two days and I'm still waiting for my next chewing-out by Mikbone for (supposedly) not understanding the Drake equation. If this goes on I'm going to need to start worrying about some real problems instead!

(I miss Anatess and her quick, sassy comebacks. Its such a pity she's gone. I hope she's well and happy.)

[mikbone]

6 hours ago, Jamie123 said:

Hmmm...nearly two days and I'm still waiting for my next chewing-out by Mikbone for (supposedly) not understanding the Drake equation.

You almost hurt my feelings.  Lol, jokes on you, I almost don't have feelings.  I am not one to dissappoint though.  

Yes, Drake's equation is based upon average rate of star formation in our Galaxy, and thus is a dynamic equation.  And people generally just want to use a static equation because it is much simpler to deal with statics, then dynamics (I took an engineering statics class and loved it. Dropped dynamics like a hot potato as it was too hard).  Thus we generalize and substitute the average rate of star formation for how many stars are in the Galaxy (sometimes at at specific reasonable radius).

Anyway.  It dosn't matter.  Obviously, with conservative estimates we should have been contacted already.  Clearly demonstrated by Enrico Fermi's commentary.

And the variable L (the average length of time such civilizations produce such sign in years).  Is probably vastly under estimated.  Carl Sagan seems to think that humanity should have already destroyed itself.  And that probably 99 out of 100 civilizations that develop radioastronomy are destined to either destroy themselves or be wiped out by some kind of mass extinction event.  I call hogwash.  I am an optimist.  I believe that humanity has a 99 % chance of survivability and we will become an interstellar species before we become wiped out by our own stupidity or a catastrophic mass extinction event.  I mean just use common sense.  Life is absolutely tenatious.  Lift up a rock, anywhere, and you will find life.  I spent a couple hours last week just spraying my yard with weed killer.  I can't win the battle.  Bottom of the ocean - life, volcanic underwater vents - life, top of everest - life.  Cockroaches are damn near impossible to get rid of - Humans are worse.  Humans will be on Mars in 50 years (conservatively).  We will definately have a civilization there in 500 years.  Will we be able to terraform Mars? Probably.  When we get to Mars, will we find evidence that life had existed there - probably.  Scientist estimate that the human species is 100K to 500K years old.  I have no idea how long it will take us to colonize other worlds but I cant imagine that we couldn't do it within 5000 years.  So many options.  Von neumann machines, 3D printers, DNA manipulation, AI.  

I am a firm believer of panspermia and that God is directing the continuination of our species.  

So, the real question is this.  If we should have been contacted already, why haven't we?

This is where it gets interesting.  Any why the question is pertinent to a religious message board.  

 

God is preventing us from having any communication with our bretheren.  It is obvious.  

He has either isolated us, or is preventing us from interacting with others.

Or life as we know it is something like a computer simulation, and we are living in His matrix.  

Joseph Smith has already stated that Enoch and the City of Zion are missionaries to other terestrial bodies.  

 

We are here to walk by Faith.  God has spent much effort to give us this opportunity to grow, including his Beloved Son.

 

Edited April 24, 2023 by mikbone

[Jamie123]

12 hours ago, mikbone said:

You almost hurt my feelings.  Lol, jokes on you, I almost don't have feelings.  I am not one to dissappoint though. 

Almost? I never thought that Lurch the Butler was one to have his feelings hurt easily. (Though he did have some vulnerable moments - like the time they sold his harpsichord!)

12 hours ago, mikbone said:

Thus we generalize and substitute the average rate of star formation for how many stars are in the Galaxy

The point is that if you use the absolute number of stars, then you cannot multiply by L at the end and get a dimensionless number (which is what N would need to be). You would instead have to to multiply by the fraction of a planet's lifetime that a communicating civilisation exists (what Carl Sagan calls "n sub L").

The equation (both forms) makes a great deal of sense, perhaps, if we assume Hoyle's steady state universe, so that no longer how long civilisations exist, they "infinitely long ago" reached a density at which they are wiped out, on average, at the same rate at which they arise.

Edited April 24, 2023 by Jamie123

[Traveler]

On 4/20/2023 at 12:52 PM, Jamie123 said:

I wonder though, if there are aliens flying around us, would we necessarily know it? Perhaps when we look up at the clouds, we're actually looking at alien beings - much the way fish in the aquarium are looking uncomprehendingly through the glass at us.

Having once worked for the USA Defense Department – I seriously doubt that extraterrestrial life forms as we are aware of life are capable of operating in the clouds as something unintelligent.  However, intelligence can be difficult to empirically measure.  The concept of a ghost within a shell is one way to define intelligence or programming of say a computer.  What is a difficult concept is a possible metric for an intelligence that is not within a shell.  The effect of such intelligence would be obvious but there would be no indication of the substance. 

Here is a thought.  We know from scripture that the intelligence of G-d permeates throughout the universe.  Perhaps Dark Matter and Dark Energy are effects of intelligence but the substance of which cannot be empirically measured or accounted.  Sometimes I speculate that the weirdness of quantum physics of the micro-universe is order by intelligence.

 

The Traveler

[Traveler]

On 4/20/2023 at 3:52 PM, NeuroTypical said:

Pretty bold of you to just grab the title 'civilization' for humans.  Seems like the higher the actual value, the less certain that we'd qualify, when compared to other civilizations.  Could they tell the difference between us and a slime mold?  Would they bother?

Any intelligence that is capable of discovering earth (somewhat of a needle in a haystack) would be impressed with the life here and would certainly be able to decipher the difference of intelligence between humans and slime mold.  If such intelligence has come here obviously, they bother.

What I speculate about is how the variance of intelligence within individual humans would be accounted.  For example, I wonder how the intelligence of those that identify with the LGBTQ+ community would be considered.  I seriously doubt such would be regarded as worthy of replication as something capable of sustaining and stability in the long term.

 

The Traveler

[Traveler]

On 4/21/2023 at 9:50 AM, mikbone said:

Nah, its simple. 

How many stars are in the galaxy.  What percent have habitable planets.  Which percent of those support life.  Which percent of those a actually have intelligent life.  Which percent of those have progressed to have communication via the electromagnetic spectrum.  And the length of time that the communication persists.  

The equation only gives a probability of us being able to intercept those communications.  Based upon the variables that are chosen.

The Drake equation does not take into account the possibility of deity or the Star Trek Prime Directive (prohibiting Starfleet’s members from interfering with the natural development of alien civilizations.)

When Enrico Fermi was asked to calculate the probability based upon variables he chose.  He famously responded, “Where is everybody?”

 

This is the great part about the Drake equation. Enrico Fermi was a freakin genius.  If he thought we should have already been contacted…  Then, there is probably something or someone interfering / preventing us from communicating with the other intelligences.   Thus, There is a God.

Or Starfleet’s prime directive is functioning.

Or something else is out there preventing our communication.

There is a great deal of our universe that we have concerning data that should be reflected in the Drake equation - so far there is not a single exoplanet discovered capable of intelligent life as we know it.  There is no indication that the Drake equation has any validity or reflection of life as we know it in the universe.

 

The Traveler

[Traveler]

On 4/21/2023 at 10:55 AM, mikbone said:

The Tower of Babel didn’t get us any closer to God.

I highly doubt a modern tower or telescope will get us any closer…

I am curious why you think so?  Scripture tells us that all things denote that there is a G-d.  We are also commanded to “seek” – especially for the things of G-d.

I am impressed that the tower of Babel was not to bring anyone closer to G-d but rather deliberately constructed to prevent a need for G-d.  Is short to take G-d out of the equation and rely only upon man’s resources.

I am convinced that the more we learn of the universe (and of the light of truth in general) that the more we will become convinced that there is a G-d.

 

The Traveler

[Traveler]

On 4/21/2023 at 12:45 PM, mikbone said:

There is only one Drake equation.  That is the one I was describing.  Although there have been modifications (not approved by Drake).

Still a very simple equation.  The inherent problem is that the equation does not take into account the possibility of deity, or interference from a more technically advanced civilization.

The following is an interactive drake equation calculator.  Knock yourself out.

https://www.spacecentre.nz/resources/tools/drake-equation-calculator.html

The following image is probably even more instructive.  The blue dot in the inset bottom right is how far Earth Radio transmission signals have traveled since we became intelligent enough to make them.

Not very far…

Because the Milky Way diameter is 100,000 light years across.  If there was one intelligent species halfway across the Milky way, it would take 50,000 years for our message to reach them and another 50,000 years for the return response.  

Space is vast.  And ain’t nobody got the patience for this type of conversation.

It is not so much a matter of the extent of radio broadcasts but rather the extent of radio broadcasts that are currently reaching us and not just of our galaxy.  We cannot see and therefore are unaware of anything that exist beyond the speed of light (light years away from us).  There is a great deal of the universe of which we are aware – so far in all that we are aware there is no indication of life as we know it.

The only possibility, as I see it, is that we really do not know what to look for.  I speculate that the isotropic nature of the order of the universe ought to be something to consider.

 

The Traveler

[NeuroTypical]

1 hour ago, Traveler said:

Any intelligence that is capable of discovering earth (somewhat of a needle in a haystack) would be impressed with the life here and would certainly be able to decipher the difference of intelligence between humans and slime mold.  If such intelligence has come here obviously, they bother.

I am impressed with the incredibly complex social structures in beehives and ant hills.  Whenever I happen to come across an ant hill (usually totally by chance), sometimes I'll pause and watch them.  I'm fascinated they wage war and even sometimes take slaves from rival species of ant. 

And I'm impressed with how a slime mold can expand itself in efficient ways that humans took a long time to figure out, like the Tokyo rail system.

I wonder if the ants feel like they're superior in intelligence to things like tardigrades and microorganisms.  I'm not sure I do.

[mikbone]

1 hour ago, Traveler said:

I am curious why you think so?  Scripture tells us that all things denote that there is a G-d.  We are also commanded to “seek” – especially for the things of G-d.

I am impressed that the tower of Babel was not to bring anyone closer to G-d but rather deliberately constructed to prevent a need for G-d.  Is short to take G-d out of the equation and rely only upon man’s resources.

I am convinced that the more we learn of the universe (and of the light of truth in general) that the more we will become convinced that there is a G-d.

 

The Traveler

The first principle of the gospel is Faith not Science or even common sense.

Although all things testify of God.  Those without faith will just come up with a theory as to why ‘x’ exists.  Whereas those who have faith will see the hand of God.

If there ever comes a time when science does prove that God exists (when the city of Zion returns, 2nd coming) it will be too late…  

[mikbone]

3 hours ago, Traveler said:

It is not so much a matter of the extent of radio broadcasts but rather the extent of radio broadcasts that are currently reaching us and not just of our galaxy.  We cannot see and therefore are unaware of anything that exist beyond the speed of light (light years away from us).  There is a great deal of the universe of which we are aware – so far in all that we are aware there is no indication of life as we know it.

The only possibility, as I see it, is that we really do not know what to look for.  I speculate that the isotropic nature of the order of the universe ought to be something to consider.

 

The Traveler

If there was no God, it would be a matter of origin of radio waves (electromagnetic radiation) and the power output of the source.  Although we can see light that is billions of years old that has traveled vast distances.  The sources of that light are amazingly powerful.  

Pulsars are easy to find even in other galaxies.  But if an Earth like civilization had existed in the Andromeda galaxy 2.537 Billion years ago, we couldn’t detect their transmissions.  Just too feint.  Too far away.  Totally wiped out by the background noise.

https://theconversation.com/weve-used-a-new-technique-to-discover-the-brightest-radio-pulsar-outside-our-own-galaxy-180508

But there is a God.  And I’m pretty sure that He is keeping us isolated.  

Edited April 25, 2023 by mikbone

[Traveler]

4 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

I am impressed with the incredibly complex social structures in beehives and ant hills.  Whenever I happen to come across an ant hill (usually totally by chance), sometimes I'll pause and watch them.  I'm fascinated they wage war and even sometimes take slaves from rival species of ant. 

And I'm impressed with how a slime mold can expand itself in efficient ways that humans took a long time to figure out, like the Tokyo rail system.

I wonder if the ants feel like they're superior in intelligence to things like tardigrades and microorganisms.  I'm not sure I do.

Some thoughts about the intelligence of ants and bees.  The complexity of such societies are completely built around the female of the species.  There is hardly any complexity associated with the males.  As a student of artificial intelligence, I am most impressed with the intelligent concept of the hive mind – that in reality is very unlike the bee hives or ant hills.  There are two basic kinds of intelligence – one is in essence that of a superior intelligence that governs the entire system.  The second is what is called distributed intelligence. 

What we have discovered it that unlike the most discussed artificial intelligence with superior processor dictating functions as the highest intelligence form.  However, this is not true.  Distributed intelligence out functions the higher intelligence concept.  This is why the separate creatures working in unison of slime mold are such impressive performers.  I find this most interesting as a concept of G-d and heaven.  The LDS concept is that man can become a G-d like unto G-d – which unlike most religious concepts of singular higher G-d.  Thus, I understand the LDS concept of G-d as a distributed concept of intelligence.

With all this in mind – I would suggest that individualism intelligence and the operation of a society acting as one is scientifically validated as a better definition of G-d (in essence a plural verse singular definition of G-d) rather than the concept of a all knowing singularly superior being controlling lessor intelligent beings without individual expression of agency.

 

The Traveler