Church Growth and membership

[Thetruechurch]

This is a very interesting topic for me.

Firstly I and everyone else would like to see membership to continue to grow around the world for the church to expand so more and more people get the chance to accept the gospel and work towards a greater salvation. Positive news on church growth is something that makes me very happy inside, as I am gracious to see it happen.

I myself have contributed to this just over half a year ago when I decided to get baptized, and I have only ever missed one service (due to illness) since that wonderful day for me and I hope to further contribute to church growth by one day marrying someone within my stake youth, and then going on to raise any children I would have as Latter Day Saints.

It has also been a good year for my ward, as a number of other people who have joined have also managed to stay on as active members (though sadly, some haven't and we all know that happens).

However, church critics may argue that church growth is slowing, in this post I would like to rubbish such a theory using this source: The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints membership history - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia which shows how many have joined the church year in contrast to the total amount of members at the time.

If we look at 2008's statistics we see that 314,510 were baptized into the church, about 2%growth, which is a fairly good number and larger than in 06, 05, 04, 03, 02, 01 . Now critics gain the "decline" theory from the fact that the growth rate is only "2 percent" where as if we look back in 1990 it was about 6%.

This however does not equal to decline in growth, as simply with each year the total membership (regardless of active or inactive) increases. Meaning that automatically the growth rate is going to come in a smaller percentage in comparison to the total, where it was a larger percentage in the past as the membership number was less in total. The critics feel to realise the number of converts has not reduced at all (regardless if they go inactive or not), but just became a smaller percentage to a growing total.

Aside with this, the birthrates of members are also worth considering, as usually they are quite high. There has been about 25 children born to lifelong active members in my ward since 2002, and I am positive that a lot of children who are born into the church do become active members. There were 120,000 births into the whole church last year, a record total (and I believe this is not counted in the baptism numbers)

To conclude, decline in church growth is a load of rubbish and a very exaggerated theory. What they need to remember is that churches take a long time to establish and we have not even exsisted for 200 years yet. Take islam for example, from its origins in the 7th century it took hundreds of years for it to expand across the middle eastern world and then eventually evolve into a major world religion. I believe that despite the ravengous attacks against us, our church will continue to spread across the globe and it will ultimately stand the test of time to prepare the world for the 2nd coming of christ. To say it extremely, those critics will never destroy us.

by the way, stay tune to this official LDS growth progress blog LDS Church Growth

[john doe]

Does anybody have any stats on the growth rate of the missionary force? Iwould think the birth rate in the church has likely slowed since the 1950s as well.

[pam]

Per lds.org statistical reports:

Number of full time missionaries:

Dec. 31 1990 - 43,651

Dec. 31 2000 - 60,784

Dec. 31, 2008 - 52,494

[NeuroTypical]

I think this in an interesting topic too. But no matter how interesting modern growth rates are, we have some more interesting times in the past. I'm not sure what thousand words this picture paints, but it sure is thought-provoking:

1855-6 must have been a heck of a couple of years!

LM

[pam]

Here is an article about 1856 which might explain a little bit about that year:

Reformation (LDS) OF 1856-1857

[john doe]

Per lds.org statistical reports:

Number of full time missionaries:

Dec. 31 1990 - 43,651

Dec. 31 2000 - 60,784

Dec. 31, 2008 - 52,494

You mean the ranks of missionaries regressed? Oh, no!!!!

[Hemidakota]

by the way, stay tune to this official LDS growth progress blog LDS Church Growth

impressive blog site!

[RipplecutBuddha]

Well, by raising the standards of acceptance for full-time missionaries the numbers will drop a little at first. In time, as the youth begin to accept the need for physical preparation as well as spiritual preparation I think the numbers will come back up again, If they haven't started to already.

[hordak]

I think many critics like to argue this point is because many believers cite the growth as an indication of truth.

Of course depending how the data is collected, almost every religion from Wicca and Buddhism to Islam and Falun Gong can make the claim of the fastest growing.

Their are 2 other parts to the mission of the church. While proclaiming the gospel is important. It isn't the end all.

[Elphaba]

I don't know who the "critics" are you keep referring to, but it is the erroneous, yet often uttered, "The Mormon Church is the fastest growing Church in America," or "The Mormon Church is the fastest growing Church in the world," that is soundly debated by critics, because neither statement is true.

Additionally, you casually dismiss the number of converts who go inactive as if those numbers don't matter. However, if you want to know the real numbers of converts that reflect the Church's real growth, you cannot dismiss them.

For example, in 2006, Rick Phillips, a social scientists who is not a "ravenous" critic, but a believing member, wrote a paper about the subject, titled Rethinking the International Expansion of Mormonism. His abstract is as follows:

The rapid international expansions of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints--the Mormon Church--prompts some sociologists to claim that Mormonism is an incipient world religion. This expansion also serves as the basis for several sociological theories of church growth. However, these observations and theories rely on an uncritical acceptance of the LDS Church’s membership statistics. This article uses census data from nations around the world to argue that Mormon Church membership claims are inflated. I argue that Mormonism is a North American church with tendrils in other continents, and that calling Mormonism a “world religion” is premature.

Phillips participated in a 2006 thread at By Common Consent that discussed his paper, which I recommend it to anyone interested in the subject. In this discussion, Phillips wrote:

I believe that the primary reason why growth rates and retention have such a strong negative correlation is that rapid growth areas have a pronounced dearth of leadership. Sex ratios in places like Latin America exacerbate this problem. Seasoned Melchizedek priesthood holders take time to cultivate, and when units are flooded with new converts, there simply aren’t enough pastors for the flock.

Another indicator of the real number of converts is the numbers of people who self-identify as LDS in a census. Again, according to Philllips:

The census questions are slightly different for each country, but basically amount to asking, “What religion are you?” It is a measure of one’s subjective religious identification.

What is significant here is that in Mexico less than 25% of those who are formally members of TCoJCoLDS claim to be members on census forms. They either claim to be something else, or nothing at all.

. . .

This is not good news, however, because it means that of the 23% of Mexican Mormons on church rolls who actually affirm their affiliation, some unknown percentage is inactive. The LDS church is among those denominations that do not drop inactive members from its rosters. Others, like the Lutherans, will drop you if they haven’t heard from you in a few years.

It is interesting to note that “none” is the second most common religious affiliation in Utah, and it is easy to believe that many (most?) of these people were raised LDS.

So, if you're interested in real growth in the Church, you cannot ignore those converts who go inactive.

None of this is to say the Church will not continue to grow--of course it will. What I am saying is your focus on "critics" is unfounded. I am aware of one anti-Mormon who has published data indicating the Church's growth is not what it claims. So what? That is certainly not "ravenous," and it's not going to have any effect on the Church's expansion.

by the way, stay tune to this official LDS growth progress blog LDS Church Growth

This is not an official site of the Church.

Elphaba

Edited to add: I meant to include that I think the Church is taking steps to address the issues Phillips raised. Unfortunatley, I was not able to find anything more currrent than Phillips' 2006 paper.

Additionally, the cumorah.com website that also addressed these issues appears to have disappeared. Does anyone know why that is?

Edited November 12, 2009 by Elphaba

[sixpacktr]

We have been told over and over again by prophets that without converts the church would wither and die. It is a very important part of our duty as Saints, and we sometimes are less than diligent in doing this because of fear (quite simply). So we rationalize our behavior in a myriad of ways to make ourselves feel better.

The sad fact is that too many converts never fully integrate into the church. It is a hard change for many of them, and while they have the fire when they are baptized, I believe that Satan gives them a double dose of whatever doubts they had before baptism right after. Up to the baptism it is 'you don't need to do this' and after the baptism it is 'you don't need to do any more than this'.

Numbers rising and falling is of little consequence. We have in the scriptures that the church will be like a stone cut without hands until it fills the whole earth, and the Prophet Joseph stated that it would fill every nation and clime. The reason it doesn't grow faster is because we don't want it to. We lack the faith. That, I feel, is evidenced by the decline in the missionary force. Too many of our YM are opting out of a mission because they don't want to sacrifice two years of their life. And they don't prepare themselves accordingly.

The church is growing, but could grow so much more if we would not doubt and do our part...

[Vort]

I don't know who the "critics" are you keep referring to, but it is the erroneous, yet often uttered, "The Mormon Church is the fastest growing Church in America," or "The Mormon Church is the fastest growing Church in the world," that is soundly debated by critics, because neither statement is true.

I agree with Elphaba's take. Moreover, I'm a bit confused by the apparent pride many in the Church take at being "the fastest-growing Church" (which, as Elphaba points out, isn't actually true).

Obviously, every believing Latter-day Saint rejoices in those who join the kingdom of God -- another brother or sister holding to the iron rod and joining us in our journey. What's not to like? But many Saints seem to take pride in the mere fact (as they suppose) of great Church growth, as if the growth of the Church were itself a testimony of its truthfulness.

But that is not the case. The Church will never make up more than a small minority of the earth's population. Though I am not sure I agree with Br. Phillips' contention that the LDS Church is not truly a worldwide Church, still I would say, even as a worldwide Church, the LDS Church will always be a minority religion.

Isn't that what our doctrine teaches? The Lord's sheep hear his voice, but it is "one of a city and two of a family", not stadiums-full converting to a megachurch. We offer the gospel to all, but we do not expect everyone to respond. Those who join are a self-selecting minority, and always will be. Even those raised in the Church will eventually be forced to choose whether and how they follow the faith of their fathers.

Church growth is exciting, even inspiring. But let's not get caught up in the false notion that Church growth somehow reflects the truthfulness of the gospel. The gospel and the Church were true even when the Church struggled with apostasy. Great struggles lie ahead for the Church and its membership, yet the Church will still be true even if and when members apostatize by the hundreds and thousands.

[pam]

Great struggles lie ahead for the Church and its membership, yet the Church will still be true even if and when members apostatize by the hundreds and thousands.

This is so, so true. And we know that will happen.

[sixpacktr]

This is so, so true. And we know that will happen.

and, in fact, has already started...

[Moksha]

The most meaningful number is the average number of people sitting in the pews on any given Sunday (plus the foyer sitters).

Ditto on what Elphaba and Vort said.

BTW, did you know that Prisonchaplain's group, the Assemblies of God (Pentacostals) is perhaps the new fastest growing faith tradition in the world, but I can't remember hearing him point to it as a sign of anything.

I have driven past McDonalds so many times and yet I can't remember their total for numbers served. It is simply not relevant to the truth of my hamburger enjoyment.

[pam]

I think they quit posting it because honestly...people just didn't care.

[prisonchaplain]

BTW, did you know that Prisonchaplain's group, the Assemblies of God (Pentacostals) is perhaps the new fastest growing faith tradition in the world, but I can't remember hearing him point to it as a sign of anything.

To use LDS terms, roughly half of our Sunday attenders are "investigators." Our U.S. membership is roughly 1.8 million, but our Sunday attendance is over 3 million. I've seen the # 3.2 million "adherents," thrown around. To put it in local perspective, my church probably sees about 140 on Sunday, but our membership is likely in the low 80s. Members get to vote at the annual business meeting, but they are expected to live up to the standards of the church and to tithe (gasp!). On the other hand, membership is open, but not pushed.

Also, our U.S. membership has platued somewhat (we're growing, due mostly to the Spanish churches). On the other hand, non-U.S. membership is exploding. We're already more than 95% non-U.S., with the largest member country being Brazil. Our biggest single congregation is in Seoul, Korea.

So, we're happy that world #s are growing, concerned about the condition in the U.S., very focused on the young generation (which appears to be non-commital), and we remain introspective about some serious shifts taken places in how our churches approach the gospel work.

Yeah...the harvest is so much more complicated than Sunday #s, baptism rates, etc. The solution though is pretty easy--we need a mighty outpouring and openness to the Holy Spirit.

[bytor2112]

Isn't the church of the devil the fastest growing and largest church?

[Jamie123]

Members get to vote at the annual business meeting, but they are expected to live up to the standards of the church and to tithe (gasp!). On the other hand, membership is open, but not pushed.

PC - Would I be correct in thinking that unlike the LDS concept of "church membership", membership of your church carries no spiritual significance, and that it is a person's own faith God is what really matters? (Sola Fide)

[Jamie123]

..."one of a city and two of a family", not stadiums-full converting to a megachurch. We offer the gospel to all, but we do not expect everyone to respond. Those who join are a self-selecting minority, and always will be.

Whatever my own personal beliefs, whenever I read a statement like that I always feel a perverse desire to see it proved wrong. I often wonder how your church (or mine too for that matter!) would cope if the world suddenly decided to take its message seriously!

If the church is self-selecting, and people have libitarian free will, then it may not always be a minority. To suggest otherwise is to open the doors to double predestination - something I've always thought the LDS church opposed.