Utter Chaos

[cdowis]

My wife and I were talking about how society has changed over the years, and what the future holds.  I told her, The time is coming when people will call what we have now as "the good old days".

For myself, as I read the prophecies of the future, it is like a story book, difficult to imagine.  But I recently saw this story of the chaos in Venezuela today.  I believe this is what the future holds for us.

http://www.infowars.com/scenes-from-the-venezuela-apocalypse-countless-wounded-after-5000-loot-supermarket-looking-for-food/

I have learned something from this.

[cdowis]

Top insurer Lloyds warns that a “pandemic” of global civil unrest could go viral, threatening international stability.

Lloyds commissioned leading global risk management consultancy the Risk Advisory Group to produce a report analyzing what factors could prompt the spread of civil unrest around the world.

The report found that, “Instances of political violence contagion are becoming more frequent and the contagion effect ever more rapid and powerful,” with head of exposure management and reinsurance, Trevor Maynard, warning that global outbreaks of violence are increasingly likely to develop into “pandemics” of civil unrest.

This transformation will lead to “widespread disruption yet prove extremely difficult to anticipate,” and threaten “international stability,” according to the report.

http://www.infowars.com/top-insurer-warns-global-civil-unrest-could-go-viral/

[Guest MormonGator]

22 minutes ago, cdowis said:

Top insurer Lloyds warns that a “pandemic” of global civil unrest could go viral, threatening international stability.

Lloyds commissioned leading global risk management consultancy the Risk Advisory Group to produce a report analyzing what factors could prompt the spread of civil unrest around the world.

The report found that, “Instances of political violence contagion are becoming more frequent and the contagion effect ever more rapid and powerful,” with head of exposure management and reinsurance, Trevor Maynard, warning that global outbreaks of violence are increasingly likely to develop into “pandemics” of civil unrest.

This transformation will lead to “widespread disruption yet prove extremely difficult to anticipate,” and threaten “international stability,” according to the report.

http://www.infowars.com/top-insurer-warns-global-civil-unrest-could-go-viral/

Infowars is notoriously conspiracy related. Like tinfoil hat conspiracy. If you want to believe it, fine. But they are almost always wrong. 75% of people in the real world correctly do not take them seriously. Then again, people still believe that Elvis is alive and that 9/11 was an "inside job" so you truly can't debunk the real conspiracy loonies. 

Deep breath my friend. It'll all be fine and no, the world isn't ending in the foreseeable future. 

Edited May 14, 2016 by MormonGator

[cdowis]

So, are you saying that infowars falsified the story?  There is no report, or Lloyds of London is a fake organization?
OK, then are you trying to say that Lloyds of London is tinfoil hat organization?  Just a bunch of crazed loons.

I have absolutely no idea of your point -- it seems that you are promulgating a conspiracy theory when you bring this highly reputable firm into your tinfoil hat narrative.

Edited May 14, 2016 by cdowis

[Guest MormonGator]

11 minutes ago, zomarah said:

Well, office fires don't melt steel beams (building 11).

 

Good luck with that. I used to debate with 9/11 conspiracy theorists. I honestly thought that reason would eventually make them realize they were wrong. Now I just just say "You are onto something. Go get em Tiger!" Sort of like how I treat my 7 year old nephew with no athletic talent who tells me he's going to play in the NBA. 

[kapikui]

13 minutes ago, zomarah said:

Well, office fires don't melt steel beams (building 11).
 

 

1 minute ago, MormonGator said:

Good luck with that. I used to debate with 9/11 conspiracy theorists. I honestly thought that reason would eventually make them realize they were wrong. Now I just just say "You are onto something. Go get em Tiger!" Sort of like how I treat my 7 year old nephew with no athletic talent who tells me he's going to play in the NBA. 

I was going to post a couple of youtube videos debunking that moronic claim, but you're right. 

[Guest MormonGator]

3 minutes ago, kapikui said:

 

I was going to post a couple of youtube videos debunking that moronic claim, but you're right. 

Thank you my friend. You just have to accept what a writer (I forget who, if someone knows, please tell me) called "The Elvis factor". 10% of people still think Elvis is alive.

[cdowis]

1 hour ago, zomarah said:

We are nearing a point of change. Everyone can see that. The government is overstepping its bounds in so many area. Eventually groups of activists will start making changes while the rest just go along with the flow. It's been pretty much the same through out history.

I think the bathroom policy will be seen as the tipping point, especially  If the next election results in the perception that we can expect an expansion of those policies.

If the government forces a mandate that our children must share the restroom and showers with those off the opposite sex, and open borders which results in allowing the party in power to guarantee that they stay in power,  the consequences will be interesting.

As the scriptures say, safety will only be found in Zion.

Edited May 14, 2016 by cdowis

[NeuroTypical]

4 hours ago, cdowis said:

So, are you saying that infowars falsified the story?  There is no report, or Lloyds of London is a fake organization?

Ok, I breezed through the infowars story, and saw melodramatic end-times-are-near illuminati tinfoil hat paroxysms of yellow-journalism-ish panic news with x-files-background music.  And a link to the Lloyds of London report.

Then I breezed through the Lloyds report, and saw it was a very dry, bean-counterish language to describe a need for... well... here - read for yourself:

This report is therefore intended to stimulate further development of analytical approaches that could enhance the identification and assessment of the mechanisms by which an outbreak of violence can escalate to a widespread PV pandemic.

BORING!  Sort of the antithesis of interesting.  You know how you can spot an extroverted accountant?  They're looking at someone else's shoes.  These folks are talking about exciting stuff from the perspective of figuring out what to charge people who want to insure against said exciting stuff.  That is sort of what they do.

 

(But yes, the stuff happening in Venezuela is pretty melodramatic and horrible.)

Edited May 14, 2016 by NeuroTypical

[cdowis]

I see it slightly differently.

Lloyds is placing bets on whether there will be a "  an outbreak of violence can escalate to a widespread PV pandemic".  Apparently there is a market in anticipation of such an event.

You don't bet on a horse that is not on the track, so there are those who feel this is a credible probability for such an event, and are willing to place bets (not just talk, but actual money).  Lloyds is accessing the premium for such a risk.

Bottom line -- there are those who are willing to place a bet on such an event.  We are not talking about nickle and dime bets in a betting parlour, but major players, customers of Lloyds, probably multinational corporations.  Certainly not those who wear tinfoil hats.  It's well beyond that.

Edited May 14, 2016 by cdowis

[Guest MormonGator]

3 hours ago, cdowis said:

I see it slightly differently.

Lloyds is placing bets on whether there will be a "  an outbreak of violence can escalate to a widespread PV pandemic".  Apparently there is a market in anticipation of such an event.

You don't bet on a horse that is not on the track, so there are those who feel this is a credible probability for such an event, and are willing to place bets (not just talk, but actual money).  Lloyds is accessing the premium for such a risk.

Bottom line -- there are those who are willing to place a bet on such an event.  We are not talking about nickle and dime bets in a betting parlour, but major players, customers of Lloyds, probably multinational corporations.  Certainly not those who wear tinfoil hats.  It's well beyond that.

No, it's not the "bottom line" at all actually. In fact, you are wrong. Lloyds is not "placing bets". 

In the disclaimer Lloyds says their report "does not make any representations or warranties as to it's accuracy or completeness". The report (which can be read here) talks a lot of about the Arab Spring, north Africa, places that are known for being socially and politically unstable in the first place. 

What do you think will happen? Give me certain dates, times, and events. I want cause and effect analysis given in a certain time period. (Not just "we will have a finical collapse". No, much too vague. We will have political upheaval. Again, too vague.) Insurance companies usually operate on specifics. 

That's one of the many problems with the tinfoil hat crowd. Unreliable sources. They'll take things and vastly twist them around or take them totally out of context.  They'll misread things that are vague, open to all sorts of interpretation and then claim the end is near. They did during Y2K-no apology. After 9/11-no apology. With SARS-no apology. During the 2008 financial crisis- no apology. During 2014 with Ebola-No apology. They are starting to do it now with Zika. And there will be no apology when Zika turns out to be a dud as well. 

Being a conspiracy theorist means never having to say "I was wrong". 

Sorry for the tartness of this post, but the doomsayers give all of us online cats/religious people a bad name. 

Edited May 15, 2016 by MormonGator

[cdowis]

1 hour ago, MormonGator said:

No, it's not the "bottom line" at all actually. In fact, you are wrong. Lloyds is not "placing bets". 
 

Sigh.  

Lloyds is in the insurance business..  An insurance company is in the business of "placing a bet" that your home will not burn down when they issue homeowner insurance.  It does a risk analysis, research into probabilities, in order to price premiums.  They are doing a business analysis of risk, not tinfoil hat conspiracy theories.

This is a waste of time.  Best of luck to you.

[Vort]

10 hours ago, zomarah said:

Well, office fires don't melt steel beams (building 11).

A few things to consider:

1. Sure, office fires absolutely can melt steel beams if (1) the office fire is fueled by tons of aviation fuel and (2) the insulative covering on the beams was blasted off. Heck, I can melt steel in my back yard using a homemade foundry, an electric fan, and charcoal. (I actually did so a week ago, without meaning to. Got the thing waaaaay too hot.)
2. The beams do not have to have been melted, or even particularly close to melting, before failure. In fact, if you were an investigator in the collapse, you would have expected not to find the beams actually melted. As they get hot, the steel beams would lose tensile and compressive strength, and would bend and then fail long before reaching their melting point. At that point, gravity and pancaking take over, and catastrophic failure is guaranteed.

Excepting Steven Jones, I know of no credentialed physicist or mechanical engineer who denies that a fully fueled jet liner crashing into a tower could indeed cause exactly the type of catastrophic failure witnessed in 2001. (That's not to say there aren't any, just that I don't know of them.)

[Guest MormonGator]

10 hours ago, cdowis said:

This is a waste of time.  Best of luck to you.

We agree on that. Whenever I've tried to debate with the doomsayers and tinfoil crowd, that's what I end up saying as well. They'll continue to try and scare us, never answer questions, they'll continue to be wrong-and nothing will change. 

in a few months/weeks Alex Jones and his followers will move onto the next scare, pretend it's the end of the world, and this one will be forgotten about. 

Edited May 15, 2016 by MormonGator

[NightSG]

16 hours ago, Vort said:

AThe beams do not have to have been melted, or even particularly close to melting, before failure. In fact, if you were an investigator in the collapse, you would have expected not to find the beams actually melted. As they get hot, the steel beams would lose tensile and compressive strength, and would bend and then fail long before reaching their melting point. At that point, gravity and pancaking take over, and catastrophic failure is guaranteed.

Excepting Steven Jones, I know of no credentialed physicist or mechanical engineer who denies that a fully fueled jet liner crashing into a tower could indeed cause exactly the type of catastrophic failure witnessed in 2001. (That's not to say there aren't any, just that I don't know of them.)

At least for A36 steel, (the most common we use in buildings) the yield strength is cut in half at around 900F.  By 1400F, it's less than a tenth of the yield strength in a normal ambient temperature range.  Overbuilding by a factor of 100% isn't that uncommon on smaller structures, (I generally deal with single story steel framed buildings of maybe 40-50' maximum free spans.) though I don't know if it's done, or even possible on something like the WTC buildings, but I'm sure nobody's dropping the cash to overbuild by much more.

[Guest MormonGator]

This is a good thread idea-How do people deal with conspiracy theorists? The 9/11 truthers, Alex Jones types. Is it better to treat them like Antis, use kids gloves and be nice and sweet? Ignore them? Attempt to reason with them? 

I've given up on trying to reason with them and I do my best to ignore them.

[Still_Small_Voice]

I don't believe a lot of stuff I have read from InfoWars but I believe that Venezuela really is in crisis because of what the government has done to the country.  I found my information and verified it from other sources.  There are food shortages there in that country.

[NeuroTypical]

18 hours ago, zomarah said:

Thanks, but I was referring to building eleven. Which no planes crashed in into.

I assume you mean 7 World Trade Center, the third building in NY to collapse that day?  That's correct - office fires didn't melt steel beams in that building.  Pretty much everyone seems to understand that, and yet 9/11 truther folk keep trotting out the fact as if it is relevant somehow.  

The relevant part of the NIST review, completed in 2008, is found on pages 21-23.  "The initiating local failure that began the probable WTC 7 collapse sequence was the buckling of Column 79.  This buckling arose from a process that occurred at temperatures at or below approximately 750 F, which are well below the temperatures considered in current practice for determining fire resistance ratings associated with significant loss of steel strength.  When steel (or any other metal) is heated, it expands.  If thermal expansion in steel beams is resisted by columns or other steel members, forces develop in the structural members that can result in buckling of beams or failures of connections."

That's what brought down 7WTC.  Not melted steel, not softened steel.  Just heated expanding steel.  And it took a long, long time that day.  It's an 88 page link chock full of data gathered, and hypothesis considered, and reasonable conclusions drawn. Sort of like a drenching thick fog from a fire extinguisher on the passionate fires of conspiracy theory.  But unlike a fire, the theorist must go to the data, you can't bring the data to the theorist.  Zomarah is free to totally ignore the link, or insufficiently breeze through it and gain incorrect conclusions, or whatever, and continue to say "office fires don't melt steel beams" as long as there is breath in the lungs (or fingers for the keyboard.)

What do you say, Zomarah?  Do you understand?  Have you learned anything?  Will you change your notions one iota based on the NIST review?  Some folks on this thread have given up on you, but I still believe in you.  Show us you can accept relevant data and learn, and have an evolving opinion.

Edited May 16, 2016 by NeuroTypical

[carlimac]

10 hours ago, Still_Small_Voice said:

I don't believe a lot of stuff I have read from InfoWars but I believe that Venezuela really is in crisis because of what the government has done to the country.  I found my information and verified it from other sources.  There are food shortages there in that country.

I have a friend who lives in Venezuela. I messaged her last night and she said the same thing. Very little food, water and light shut off for hours every day. Very scary! We need to pray for them. I wish there was more we could do. I didn't know if even messaging her would put her in danger. I hope not. She says the government is "very bad". She is in her mid 50s and out of work for medical reasons and gets $18/day for her "retirement". She is also taking care of her elderly mother.   And here I sit with my freedom, a fully stocked pantry, running water and no fear of walking out my front door. How long is this pleasant life going to last for us? 

[NeuroTypical]

So, kind of like this?

Edited May 16, 2016 by NeuroTypical

[omegaseamaster75]

57 minutes ago, carlimac said:

I have a friend who lives in Venezuela. I messaged her last night and she said the same thing. Very little food, water and light shut off for hours every day. Very scary! We need to pray for them. I wish there was more we could do. I didn't know if even messaging her would put her in danger. I hope not. She says the government is "very bad". She is in her mid 50s and out of work for medical reasons and gets $18/day for her "retirement". She is also taking care of her elderly mother.   And here I sit with my freedom, a fully stocked pantry, running water and no fear of walking out my front door. How long is this pleasant life going to last for us? 

Wait so what your saying is that your friend lives in a third world socialist country?

I think we will be just fine.....

[NightSG]

1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

That's what brought down 7WTC.  Not melted steel, not softened steel.  Just heated expanding steel.

Heated, expanding and softened; ASTM A36 is down 30% in yield strength at 750F.  Thermal expansion between 50F and 750F is only going to amount to about an inch in ten feet, which will likely contribute to concrete breaking away and exposing the steel directly to more heat, but shouldn't be enough to buckle a well made structure by itself.  Coupled with a 30% loss of strength, OTOH, it (just off the top of my head - I don't really feel like spending the rest of the morning on the numbers) sounds like enough to start a chain reaction of failures in a large structure.

[LeSellers]

1 hour ago, omegaseamaster75 said:

Wait so what your saying is that your friend lives in a third world socialist country?

I think we will be just fine.....

That is until we give up our freedoms and substitute socialism for the government our Framers and God gave us. If Hillary wins in November, we have about six years to use up the capital we've accumulated over the past 400 years (and have been squandering like drunken sailor for the past 100) and we find our selves in Venezuela North.

Lehi

[Guest]

56 minutes ago, NightSG said:

Heated, expanding and softened; ASTM A36 is down 30% in yield strength at 750F.  Thermal expansion between 50F and 750F is only going to amount to about an inch in ten feet, which will likely contribute to concrete breaking away and exposing the steel directly to more heat, but shouldn't be enough to buckle a well made structure by itself.  Coupled with a 30% loss of strength, OTOH, it (just off the top of my head - I don't really feel like spending the rest of the morning on the numbers) sounds like enough to start a chain reaction of failures in a large structure.

Actually, it's more complicated than that.  And it can be down almost 50% at 750F.

Notice the bump in the 20 degree and 200 degree curves?  Those are the numbers and levels of strain that we normally design to.  When we have 400 C (about 750F) we have a flexibility problem.

Additionally, it's not just the strength.  It's the flexibility.

 

Notice not only the gradual drop in stiffness up to 600 F, but the drastic drop after that point.  The general temperature may have been at 750F, but if a critical spot reached 800F, then that would also have caused a catastrophic cascading failure.

[NightSG]

1 hour ago, Carborendum said:

Notice the bump in the 20 degree and 200 degree curves?  Those are the numbers and levels of strain that we normally design to.  When we have 400 C (about 750F) we have a flexibility problem.

Since I'm usually just designing to overbuild a simple occupancy category 1 steel building that may or may not even have exterior walls, the theory of "go up to the next common size, or two sizes up if it looks better that way" eliminates a lot of the details for not that much cost.  If I need a 60' free span or something, I pass it off to an engineer.

The cost difference between, say, W10x17# and W14x22# beam just isn't that much when you only need ~120' of it and it's ~1/3 of your total steel.  Keeps the engineers happy and keeps me from spending hours doing math they're paid to check.