UtahBuilder

Safely Passing The Sacrament These Days

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So many ways to look at data.  So many things I learned.

I caught the COVID hype early on, when the data showed exponential growth.  You get something possibly fatal that doubles every period of time (doubles every day, every week, every 3 weeks), and you absolutely have to do something to "flatten that curve".  I made my own logarithmic chart, and saw the exponential growth with my own eyes.  Look at that scary thing in the early days:

image.png.655a62b698d375b0eebd1889308e2fa7.png

(Blue line is my state, red line is my county, green line was what we could expect if we did nothing.  That green line is where all the projections of overloaded hospitals and millions dead came from)

So America shut down the economy in March, sent everyone home, and we flattened the curve.  As long as we don't go back to logarithmic growth, we're ok to sit and argue about this or that increased or decreased number, and we (i.e. government) isn't going to take any specific additional actions to increase restrictions.  We're all seeing how much we can relax restrictions slowly and wisely without going logarighmic.

 

Since April, I haven't needed any logarithmic charts, just happy to see if things are a little better, or a little worse.

image.png.985292343f29b45a5c5d2b10f3db1430.pngimage.png.3fbbd1dad3e70d77c3cb8cbf68ff29bc.png

This is sustainable until there's a vaccine (maybe this year or 2021), or there's herd immunity (2021/2022 at this low rate).

So yeah, if we all drop our masks and head to bars and churches and indoor arenas, we'll go logarithmic again, and the govt will need to shut things down again.  Here in phase two, "we" will be the county and state level, maybe the city level for bigger cities.  So your "we" will be different than my "we".

For the love of Pete, everyone needs this one fact crowbarred into their skulls: Your mask doesn't protect you.  Your mask lowers the number of people you will infect, if you have COVID.  I'll keep shouting it until I'm blue in the face: Let's say you want to spit on someone's face.  If neither of you have masks, it's pretty easy.  If your target has a mask, it's a little harder, but still likely, because wherever your stuff lands, your target will get it on his clothes, and his fingers, and his grandma in the nursing home.  If you are wearing a mask, how easy is it to spit on someone's face?

 

 

Edited by NeuroTypical

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Guest MormonGator
1 minute ago, NeuroTypical said:

Your mask doesn't protect you.  Your mask lowers the number of people you will infect, if you have COVID.

Couldn't agree more, and that's why you should wear a mask. To protect others in case you are infected. 

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There are some easy things that could be instituted, IF a ward or stake actually TOOK the virus seriously, but still wanted to meet as a congregation.  The most obvious is one that they probably won't do...

1.  Do services OUTSIDE!  It's a REALLY simple thing to do.  It's easier to social distance outside, and the air allows movement of breath so that it does not get trapped inside a building or an enclosed space as easily.  Most Chapels have lawns and even parking lots if they had to, and most have a ton of folding chairs if they really wanted it that way.  One of the easiest ways to reduce the spread of the virus, yet I don't think anyone is going to do it.

2.  Wellness checks.  If one is sick or has any symptoms of the illness, or in a household with someone who does...do not come to meetings.

3.  Have the young men wash hands before the sacrament, use sanitizer before the sacrament, and then use sterilized gloves which they have to change if they so much as touch their face or any other thing except the sacrament, then they can break the bread.  Same applies to those who pass it.  You may have to have older individuals pass the sacrament if younger ones cannot adhere to the guidelines.

4.  Masks are highly encouraged, even in an outdoor setting.

5.  Allow those who are uncomfortable with meeting in groups at the current time, or that are in a high risk to be able to bless the sacrament in their own homes if they have a priesthood holder, OR if they do not have a priesthood holder in the home, the ability to invite someone from the Bishopric or a family member to bless the sacrament for them.

 

These are VERY simple steps which I expect most wards and stakes will not do when they meet.  It would not stop the spread of disease, but it would help prevent it from occurring as easily.  I don't think most are taking the pandemic all that seriously though.  If there is justice, I hope the deaths of those who die because people do not care about the health of others are placed upon the heads of the leaders who SHOULD have cared more.

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4 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

 

So yeah, if we all drop our masks and head to bars and churches and indoor arenas, we'll go logarithmic again, and the govt will need to shut things down again.  Here in phase two, "we" will be the county and state level, maybe the city level for bigger cities.  So your "we" will be different than my "we".

For the love of Pete, everyone needs this one fact crowbarred into their skulls: Your mask doesn't protect you.  Your mask lowers the number of people you will infect, if you have COVID.  I'll keep shouting it until I'm blue in the face: Let's say you want to spit on someone's face.  If neither of you have masks, it's pretty easy.  If your target has a mask, it's a little harder, but still likely, because wherever your stuff lands, your target will get it on his clothes, and his fingers, and his grandma in the nursing home.  If you are wearing a mask, how easy is it to spit on someone's face?

 

 

One thing I think that is happening (even as people are getting it in higher numbers, the mortality is not as high.  Some say it is because younger people are getting it but there is another thing that could be happening) is that the heat of summer has decreased exposure.  They said early on that the amount someone was exposed to the virus resulted in how bad the virus affected them.  Thus, someone who was in an enclosed building doing choir practice for 2 hours and got it deep in the lungs continuously during that time period could have a case that would result more in mortality and death than someone who got a brief exposure during a visit to the store.  We also know that the heat of summer decreases the strength of the virus and can kill it (the hotter the more quickly it dies).  It's more resistant than many strains of the cold or flu, but it is still highly affected.

This could mean lesser exposures (though for those rushing indoors to escape the heat, in places like Florida or Southern Texas I imagine it could still present difficulties, but even then, if it is seasonal like other diseases similar to the Flu, Colds, or other Covid's, than it will be decreased during the summer months) for us during the summer.  It probably is a LOT like other viruses in it's family and in related diseases where it is seasonal.  Seasonal does NOT mean that it completely disappears during the summer months.  It means that it is not as volatile (doesn't hit as heavily and does not cause as much mortality or hard health difficulties).  

In this instance, if this is what is occurring (and indications are that from what I've seen, the numbers of deaths are trending lower from what I've seen, as well as hospitalizations, even as infections have gone up, indicating more of a seasonal disease like the flu or cold or other covids), the mortality and death rates could shoot up this coming fall again.

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Guest MormonGator
11 minutes ago, JohnsonJones said:

  Do services OUTSIDE!  It's a REALLY simple thing to do.

In Florida? in August? 

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3 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

In Florida? in August? 

Well, have everyone have a water bottle and make it a 15 minute meeting (if it's only sacrament, may be doable).  They didn't have air conditioning 100 years ago and they survived...easier to be outdoors then indoors without A/C.

 

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Guest MormonGator
Just now, JohnsonJones said:

Well, have everyone have a water bottle and make it a 15 minute meeting (if it's only sacrament, may be doable).  They didn't have air conditioning 100 years ago and they survived...easier to be outdoors then indoors without A/C.

 

Bro, first off-that's your first post ever that wasn't 5,000 words. Congrats. 😉

Second, your odds of dying of heat exhaustion are much greater than dying of Covid. 

 

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Just now, MormonGator said:

Bro, first off-that's your first post ever that wasn't 5,000 words. Congrats. 😉

Second, your odds of dying of heat exhaustion are much greater than dying of Covid. 

 

You think Florida is hot, try it in equatorial Africa (nations around Africa).  Some of them have meeting places which have no A/C.  Of course, they may be used to not having A/C more than some in other places of the world.  Meeting outside or in a place with more airflow is a blessing in those locations to me though.

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8 minutes ago, mordorbund said:
1 hour ago, JohnsonJones said:

They didn't have air conditioning 100 years ago and they survived

Not true. There are very few people still alive from 1920. I would say a super minority.

Random person from last March: If I get COVID-19, will I die?

Vort: ...yes, of course.

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15 hours ago, Vort said:

Random person from last March: If I get COVID-19, will I die?

Vort: ...yes, of course.

Reminds me of one of my favorite news headlines of all time:

Severe sleep apnea sufferers more likely to die

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/25952469/ns/health-health_care/t/severe-sleep-apnea-sufferers-more-likely-die/#.XvSdSii6PIU

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1 hour ago, MarginOfError said:

Reminds me of one of my favorite news headlines of all time:

Severe sleep apnea sufferers more likely to die

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/25952469/ns/health-health_care/t/severe-sleep-apnea-sufferers-more-likely-die/#.XvSdSii6PIU

Oh, no! *I* have sleep apnea! Does that mean...that...I'm gonna...

...die?

noooooooooooooooooooooo.jpg

Edited by Vort

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On 6/24/2020 at 10:54 AM, NeuroTypical said:

So many ways to look at data.  So many things I learned.

I caught the COVID hype early on, when the data showed exponential growth.  You get something possibly fatal that doubles every period of time (doubles every day, every week, every 3 weeks), and you absolutely have to do something to "flatten that curve".  I made my own logarithmic chart, and saw the exponential growth with my own eyes.  Look at that scary thing in the early days:

image.png.655a62b698d375b0eebd1889308e2fa7.png

(Blue line is my state, red line is my county, green line was what we could expect if we did nothing.  That green line is where all the projections of overloaded hospitals and millions dead came from)

So America shut down the economy in March, sent everyone home, and we flattened the curve.  As long as we don't go back to logarithmic growth, we're ok to sit and argue about this or that increased or decreased number, and we (i.e. government) isn't going to take any specific additional actions to increase restrictions.  We're all seeing how much we can relax restrictions slowly and wisely without going logarighmic.

 

Since April, I haven't needed any logarithmic charts, just happy to see if things are a little better, or a little worse.

image.png.985292343f29b45a5c5d2b10f3db1430.pngimage.png.3fbbd1dad3e70d77c3cb8cbf68ff29bc.png

This is sustainable until there's a vaccine (maybe this year or 2021), or there's herd immunity (2021/2022 at this low rate).

So yeah, if we all drop our masks and head to bars and churches and indoor arenas, we'll go logarithmic again, and the govt will need to shut things down again.  Here in phase two, "we" will be the county and state level, maybe the city level for bigger cities.  So your "we" will be different than my "we".

For the love of Pete, everyone needs this one fact crowbarred into their skulls: Your mask doesn't protect you.  Your mask lowers the number of people you will infect, if you have COVID.  I'll keep shouting it until I'm blue in the face: Let's say you want to spit on someone's face.  If neither of you have masks, it's pretty easy.  If your target has a mask, it's a little harder, but still likely, because wherever your stuff lands, your target will get it on his clothes, and his fingers, and his grandma in the nursing home.  If you are wearing a mask, how easy is it to spit on someone's face?

 

 

When your spit travels beyond 94 feet, let me know.... there's a Guiness Book of World Records we can put you on.

In any case, stay away 25 feet from sneezing people, not 6 feet.

In any, any case... if we find ourselves stopping the work of the Lord because we're afraid of dying... it's time to rethink things.

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On 6/24/2020 at 4:02 PM, JohnsonJones said:

You think Florida is hot, try it in equatorial Africa (nations around Africa).  Some of them have meeting places which have no A/C.  Of course, they may be used to not having A/C more than some in other places of the world.  Meeting outside or in a place with more airflow is a blessing in those locations to me though.

Try Philippines.  Not only do you have ward buildings without A/C, they also have ward buildings within 10 feet of the neighbors yelling, roosters crowing, dogs barking, motor vehicles running, etc. etc... all in cacophony with your sacrament prayer.

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