Tariffs?

[NeuroTypical]

Here's page one of what got revealed yesterday.  Blanket 10% tariffs for everyone, plus higher ones for certain nations Trump is mad at for various reasons.

There were several screens like this.  Notably missing was Canada and Mexico, and Russia.

The Twitter community notes say: 

Quote

Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs (e.g., China 67%, EU 40%) aren’t based on actual foreign tariffs (WTO: China 7.3%, EU 5.2%) but likely on the U.S. trade deficit divided by imports (e.g., China: 279B/427B=65%). See WTO data: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm 

 

Here's a pretty informative article that helps explain things to folks like me trying to wrap their heads around things.  This link should get y'all past the paywall:

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/what-to-know-about-the-u-s-trade-imbalance-in-charts-79b25c0b?st=Rfzsky&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

What do y'all think?    I'm struggling to get informed enough to have a relevant opinion.

Edited April 3 by NeuroTypical

[LDSGator]

https://general-history.com/why-are-tariffs-bad-according-to-milton-friedman/?amp=1
 

Let’s ask the Chairman of the Board. 

[Ironhold]

As I've explained on Twitter -

In the kind of business environment Trump came up in, aggression of the type he's been showing is a feature rather than a bug. This aggression can and often does include bluffs, outrageous bids, outrageous demands, and other bits of game theory. The idea is for both parties to throw out ridiculous proposals and then haggle their way down to where everyone is actually wanting to be. 

The problem is that the last 5 years have broken something inside of Trump. He was done dirty in the 2020 elections, with evidence surfacing to the effect that the Hunter Biden laptop story and several other bits that could have hurt Biden were deliberately suppressed through orchestrated campaigns. [1] He was nearly assassinated due to incompetent Secret Service agents allowing a shooter to get dangerously close to him, with a civilian being killed in the process. He's been the victim of outright lawfare in which various people went to legally questionable lengths to try and destroy him. His family has been the subject of vile comments and the like from ostensible "progressives" who would scream themselves unconscious if the same level of abuse was heaped on them. Various reports are now claiming that the "lab leak" theory for the origin of Covid was indeed more than likely correct. Et cetera. 

Now reports are coming in from across North America and Europe saying that Tesla owners are being targeted and that Tesla vehicles & facilities are being vandalized or even set on fire, a repeat of the left-wing violence that the nation suffered through in 2020 and years prior.

This has ramped his aggression levels up beyond what is normal even for this kind of environment while also blinding him to the fact that he's dealing with individuals who aren't from his same business background and so don't know how the game is played. 

It's possible that some of these nations will work out compromises that will lead to these tariff issues being dispensed with. But it's just as possible that people will overreact to his intense aggression and make a trade war out of things. 

 

[1] Yes, at this point it can indeed be argued that 2020 was stolen due to how much was forcibly suppressed to help Biden out. 

[NeuroTypical]

Yep.  I grew up in the '70's listening to my union Democrat father and neighbors zealously supporting tariffs.  Japanese cars were better and cheaper, and they were so mad about it you could literally see the veins popping out of their heads as they swore about it, demanding the govt protect US made stuff.  Cars and clothes seemed to be their biggest pet peeves.    

In the '80's as I turned conservative, Friedman's notions seemed to have won the day.  Global competition was best.  Into the '90's factories moved overseas and Detroit decayed into the lawless pit it is today.  Union protectionism could only do so much.  My dad saw Japanese writing on some of the cables under the hood of his Chevy, and he swore and kept swearing into the next decade, literally dying mad about it.  In the 2000's I remember getting a job, one of the rare hires as a company was downsizing.  They had just had a meeting with assigned seating where they told half the room "you're staying" and the other half "you're going because your job is moving overseas".  Bush took flak from the dems and libs for his globalism - they were so ticked at his "New World Order" talk.    

From the 2010's until the week before Trump got elected, everyone stopped talking about it, and it just seemed to be the conventional wisdom.  We had been told the US was a service industry powerhouse, and it was best for us to have the cheap labor make the stuff, while we had high paying white collar jobs doing all the thinking and banking and software and whatnot. 

Here comes Trump throwing the whole thing on its ear, telling us we're going broke because of the trade imbalance.  His claim is we need to go back to the 1800's when tariffs were so successful we had a hard time spending all the money.

I mean, if Friedman's principles remain accurate (which I assume they do), surely Trump still has a point about the whole going broke thing?

 

I mean, ok, if tariffs aren't the answer, what is?  If the US continues to send upwards of ~1 trillion dollars a year out of itself and into the world isn't a problem, when does it start to be?

Edited April 3 by NeuroTypical

[NeuroTypical]

12 minutes ago, Ironhold said:

The problem is that the last 5 years have broken something inside of Trump.

Yeah, I'm thinking you're on to something.  I've had a vague wondering about how he was impacted by getting shot in the ear.  Surviving a fatal encounter by a few millimeters and luck, is enough to traumatize people or change their worldview, even their personality.  It's like the air seems different, reality looks different after such an event to someone who has survived it.   I saw the inauguration party with Melania's "you [beeps] tried to kill my husband" vibe.  It makes me wonder how the two of them talk about it in bed at night.

Edited April 3 by NeuroTypical

[Ironhold]

4 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Yep.  I grew up in the '70's listening to my union Democrat father and neighbors zealously supporting tariffs.  Japanese cars were better and cheaper, and they were so mad about it you could literally see the veins popping out of their heads as they swore about it, demanding the govt protect US made stuff.  Cars and clothes seemed to be their biggest pet peeves.    

I mean, ok, if tariffs aren't the answer, what is?

What happened was that in the 1960s Detroit got complacent. Even with Volkswagen, Renault, and other European car manufacturers slowly moving into the United States the Big Three truly believed that they were untouchable. As part of this, they utterly ignored and rejected the various efficiency experts that came in to try and explain what and how they could improve everything. 

Well, those efficiency experts went to Japan, where the automakers there were quite eager to hear about these new proposals. 

Couple this with a variety of other factors going on, like the difference between the yen & dollar, and by the late 1970s Japan was flooding the United States with competitively priced vehicles that were often just as good as, if not better than, their American counterparts. By the time Detroit actually managed to come back with better-quality vehicles, it was too late and the Japanese companies had gotten a permanent foothold. 

As it is, I'm presently chipping my way through Lee Iacocca's "Talking Straight", and he devotes an entire chapter in there to warning about the nation's growing trade imbalances, especially with how countries like Japan put up barriers and whatnot to make it difficult for American products to be sold abroad. This was 1987 when the book was published, so it's been an known issue for nearly 40 years now. Trump, it seems, is trying to force a resolution of some sort, but he is doing it in a rather ham-fisted fashion. 

[Ironhold]

6 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Yeah, I'm thinking you're on to something.  I've had a vague wondering about how he was impacted by getting shot in the ear.  Surviving a fatal encounter by a few millimeters and luck, is enough to traumatize people or change their worldview, even their personality.  It's like the air seems different, reality looks different after such an event to someone who has survived it.   I saw the inauguration party with Melania's "you [beeps] tried to kill my husband" vibe.  It makes me wonder how the two of them talk about it in bed at night.

The Secret Service behaved in *such* an incompetent fashion, such as by not inspecting or securing that roof despite it being plainly visible, that there are conspiracy theories about whether or not the attempt was allowed to happen, especially since agents who had originally been intended to be there got pulled away at the last minute for a Biden event. 

Not helping matters any is all of the Democrats who insisted that the incident was staged because Trump was up and around soon after; in their eyes, he wasn't injured enough for it to have been a real attempt, and they had no comeback for the civilian who had been killed. 

Things are only going to get worse before they get better. That's the one guarantee we have right now. 

[Ironhold]

Also - 

Right now, the US entertainment industry is such a flaming mess that a lot of people are seeking out foreign-produced entertainment, especially comic books, simply because the foreign-produced material is seen as being of better quality and more entertaining on the whole. 

I wonder how much of our trade deficit is people spending money on foreign-produced content. 

[HaggisShuu]

33 minutes ago, Ironhold said:

I wonder how much of our trade deficit is people spending money on foreign-produced content. 

There is a global anime epidemic. While the rest of the world is working on weapons of mass destruction, Japan is producing some of the most lethal fiction to ever be seen on earth. Just last week I saw an anime fan and have never felt so afraid in my life. Japan needs to be stopped. 
 

This is all part of Japan's plot to weaken the USA after the failure of pearl harbour. 

[zil2]

54 minutes ago, Ironhold said:

Various reports are now claiming that the "lab leak" theory for the origin of Covid was indeed more than likely correct.

This video is the most informative I've seen about the biology of the virus itself.  Good stuff if you can follow the science (don't let the thumbnail fool you - one of the scientists likes to surf):

 

[Carborendum]

1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

Yeah, I'm thinking you're on to something.  I've had a vague wondering about how he was impacted by getting shot in the ear.  Surviving a fatal encounter by a few millimeters and luck, is enough to traumatize people or change their worldview, even their personality.  It's like the air seems different, reality looks different after such an event to someone who has survived it.   I saw the inauguration party with Melania's "you [beeps] tried to kill my husband" vibe.  It makes me wonder how the two of them talk about it in bed at night.

Ever since around the first week of February, I got the impression that Trump doesn't really expect to survive this term.  If he does, great.  But he is going forward at ramming speed because he doesn't think he has time to get it all done before he gets killed.  He feels like he has nothing to lose.  And he's bound and determined to fix the world before he is killed.

That gives him tremendous drive to implement the agenda.  But it also means there is a degree of wrecklessness.

[NeuroTypical]

1 hour ago, Carborendum said:

I got the impression that Trump doesn't really expect to survive this term.

I'm the last person on earth to give a crap about what famous people wear to important events, but for whatever reason, I was struck by Melania's choice.  

- Mob boss wife
- Starting mourning her husband early
- "You [beep]s tried to kill my husband"

The outfit made an impact on me.  And I've never had an impact made on me by anyone's outfit before in my entire life (with the obvious exception of my wife on our sealing day).

Edited April 3 by NeuroTypical

[Phoenix_person]

Re: automotive tariffs, it's important to keep in mind that most "American-made" cars are assembled in the US, but various parts of the car will come from other countries, including Mexico and Canada. Domestic manufacturing relies heavily on international commerce, in the auto industry and many others as well. That's not exactly something Trump (or anyone else) can change overnight, or even in 4 years.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2025/03/29/made-in-america-cars-impacted-by-tariffs/82690031007/

[NeuroTypical]

2 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

Domestic manufacturing relies heavily on international commerce, in the auto industry and many others as well.

I’m interested, do you think Bernie Sanders should have had his way back in 2008 when he was against all of this getting set up in the first place?
 

 

[Phoenix_person]

3 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

I’m interested, do you think Bernie Sanders should have had his way back in 2008 when he was against all of this getting set up in the first place?
 

 

I disagree with Bernie here, for the reason I named above. Tariffs can only protect domestic industries that are 100% reliant on domestic logistical support, and those are rare these days. 

[NeuroTypical]

6 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

I disagree with Bernie here

And do you also disagree with Pelosi (‘96) and Obama (‘18)?

 

Again, my entire life since the 1970’s has been filled with left wing pro tariff voices.  And now, having been put in their place by a Republican with a pro-tariff message, y’all spin on a dime to oppose what you’ve always supported.

 Here’s an interesting challenge for you as things unfold:  Before 2024, can you find a single anti-tariff message from anywhere on the American left in the last 50 years?

I mean, I’m sure the left is searching for any such thing right now, so it’s not on you FP.  But if none of you show up with anything, isn’t that basically proof that the only reason you’re spinning now, is because of Orange man bad?

In such a case, it doesn’t really prove Trump is right, just that the left is not being honest about its sudden allegedly principled opposition to tariffs.

[Phoenix_person]

1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

And do you also disagree with Pelosi (‘96) and Obama (‘18)?

 

Again, my entire life since the 1970’s has been filled with left wing pro tariff voices.  And now, having been put in their place by a Republican with a pro-tariff message, y’all spin on a dime to oppose what you’ve always supported.

As I keep having to remind you, I am not a Democrat, and America's mainstream left wing is one of the most conservative left wing parties in the world.

1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

 Here’s an interesting challenge for you as things unfold:  Before 2024, can you find a single anti-tariff message from anywhere on the American left in the last 50 years?

I'm sure I could find several from Trump's first term.

1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

I mean, I’m sure the left is searching for any such thing right now, so it’s not on you FP.  But if none of you show up with anything, isn’t that basically proof that the only reason you’re spinning now, is because of Orange man bad?

When it comes to economic matters, I listen to economists, not politicians. A lot of economists, even some of the more conservative ones, are saying that Trump's tariffs are ill-conceived and will bring a recession if he doesn't back off of them. Trump's own rhetoric backs that idea, with him repeatedly promising that the end result will justify short-term economic pain. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-americans-could-feel-pain-trade-war-with-mexico-canada-china-2025-02-02/

I know several Trump voters who expected more immediate economic relief from the inflation-driven price hikes under Biden. I'm not sure how patient they're going to be if he hasn't delivered by the time midterms roll around.

[Ironhold]

20 hours ago, HaggisShuu said:

There is a global anime epidemic. While the rest of the world is working on weapons of mass destruction, Japan is producing some of the most lethal fiction to ever be seen on earth. Just last week I saw an anime fan and have never felt so afraid in my life. Japan needs to be stopped. 
 

This is all part of Japan's plot to weaken the USA after the failure of pearl harbour. 

A lot of Japanese works have a sort of "hero's journey" concept undergirding everything. 

The central character is someone who is put in a hard situation, usually through no fault of their own. Even though most people would forgive them for giving up and fading away, the character pushes themself in order to grow and develop what skills and traits they do have, along the way gaining sympathy for others from their trials. Because they've kept working and pushing, when the call to action comes they're well able to answer it. It's not easy, but they do just well enough for themselves that they begin gaining a level of esteem. This esteem, however small, is enough for them to start gathering a group of friends and mentors, possibly even including a lover. With their help and encouragement, the central character is able to overcome the increasing challenges they face as they try to reach their ultimate goal. In the process they build their relationships with these individuals, and possibly even make it official with their love interest(s). 

This sends the message that if a person works hard, cultivates good characteristics, and seizes opportunity as it comes, they too can be a hero. 

You'll see everything from romantic comedies to science fiction to high fantasy using this formula. 

Pick up a lot of the pop culture material created in the United States and what you'll see... is anything *but* this formula. A lot of modern-day hero characters didn't earn their call to action, let alone the perks that came with answering the call. Meanwhile, solid, stable, romantic relationships are being spat upon by people whose own relationships failed utterly or who can't get a relationship going and so are cynical about the entire idea. And of course the classic virtues and classic ideals of heroism are being rejected outright in the belief that nobody could match that ideal so there's no point in even bothering. 

I think you can understand why a lot of folks are preferring what Japan's cranking out to what the mainstream US studios are cranking out. 

 

[LDSGator]

2 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

When it comes to economic matters, I listen to economists, not politicians. A lot of economists, even some of the more conservative ones, are saying that Trump's tariffs are ill-conceived and will bring a recession if he doesn't back of

I totally, 100% agree with you that tariffs are a bad idea, and I also agree that conservatives economists are the ones saying that. 

Just curious-do you listen to economists on the minimum wage? Because it’s universally thought to be a bad idea to raise it. What about rent control? Because economists think rent control is a terrible idea. How about raising taxes? Because most economists think raising taxes can lead to economic slowdowns. 

Like I mentioned, I totally agree tariffs are a bad idea. A really bad idea. Free trade used to be a republican thing-and democrats would get very uncomfortable with it. Not so in 2025.   
 

And check Facebook. Tagged you in an album I think you’ll like. 

Edited April 4 by LDSGator

[Traveler]

It is interesting to me that in this world the most ardent objections to the USA tariffs come from the countries that tariff the most goods coming to them from the USA.  I personally am opposed to tariffs because they unlevel the playing field.  But tariffs are not the only means through which the trade playing field is unleveled. 

It is my opinion that Trump is going too far in requiring that foreign countries must manufacture in the USA to avoid tariffs.  This is an insane notion that will cause more problems than solutions.   Every place and people of earth should be able to contribute to and receive from a world economy.  Industry should be the core principle of economy, and no one should profit from the labor of others more than those laboring.

Our worldwide economics should encourage industry.  Those without natural resources should be encouraged and allowed to add value through their own industry.

 

The Traveler

[LDSGator]

7 minutes ago, Traveler said:

is my opinion that Trump is going too far in requiring that foreign countries must manufacture in the USA to avoid tariffs.  This is an insane notion that will cause more problems than solutions.   Every place and people of earth should be able to contribute to and receive from a world economy. 

Amen. 

 

[NeuroTypical]

All fair answers @Phoenix_person.    I suppose I should ask you what you personally thought of tariffs before Trump.  If you're like me, you didn't think much about them at all.

3 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

A lot of economists, even some of the more conservative ones, are saying that Trump's tariffs are ill-conceived and will bring a recession if he doesn't back off of them.

Honestly, I'm having a difficult time finding any economist, conservative or not, saying positive things about what Trump is doing.  Besides Trump appointees like Bessent and the Ag secretary and such folks, is there any positive voice in agreement?  I see much hedging and guessing and maybe some cautious "this might accomplish X, but at what cost?" stuff going on.  

If any of this ends up working, let the record show that it was because Trump dragged the entire nation, kicking and screaming or at least hemming and hawing, into the light.   Dude is surely out to cement his legacy in the history books, let his economic plan dictate how it will be cemented.

 

In other news, I'm hardly impressed with all the end-of-the-world screaming about how the stock market is crashing.  Here's my family's 401k performance:

I note scary apocalypse dip is not as bad as the entire year of 2022.  It's about as bad as Oct-Nov 2023.  Maybe slightly worse than the dips of Jan 19 and May 20.  Real quick - does anyone remember the panicky sense in the air for any of those?   Anyone want to hazard a guess as to why not?   My guess is that orange man bad drives the news cycle.

In other words, it's a prime time to invest in the stock market.  Imma try to see if I can suck an extra percent into my 401K.

 

Edited April 4 by NeuroTypical

[Phoenix_person]

1 hour ago, LDSGator said:

Just curious-do you listen to economists on the minimum wage? Because it’s universally thought to be a bad idea to raise it. What about rent control? Because economists think rent control is a terrible idea. How about raising taxes? Because most economists think raising taxes can lead to economic slowdowns. 

As a nation, I think we took several steps back when we started slashing taxes for the wealthy in the 80s (a precedent Trump was elected specifically to continue). I think undoing that harm may not be fully possible without significant additional economic hardship, and whenever economic hardship rolls around, it's always the poor who hurt the most. I'm far from an expert on liberal economics, but I think the general idea is to try to undo past harm by squeezing from the top for once. If you look at the dependency on federal revenue of worker-friendly blue states compared to more business-friendly red states, it paints an interesting picture. 

A map showing the disbursement of SNAP and Medicaid funds will look similar, which would suggest that maybe federal taxes are subsidizing poor labor practices in red states. Actually, we can drop the "maybe". Bernie created a government commission to find out what the cost of low wages is to the American taxpayer.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/walmart-mcdonalds-largest-employers-snap-medicaid-recipients

 

[LDSGator]

5 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

As a nation, I think we took several steps back when we started slashing taxes for the wealthy in the 80s (a precedent Trump was elected specifically to continue). I think undoing that harm may not be fully possible without significant additional economic hardship, and whenever economic hardship rolls around, it's always the poor who hurt the most. I'm far from an expert on liberal economics, but I think the general idea is to try to undo past harm by squeezing from the top for once. If you look at the dependency on federal revenue of worker-friendly blue states compared to more business-friendly red states, it paints an interesting picture. 

A map showing the disbursement of SNAP and Medicaid funds will look similar, which would suggest that maybe federal taxes are subsidizing poor labor practices in red states. Actually, we can drop the "maybe". Bernie created a government commission to find out what the cost of low wages is to the American taxpayer.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/walmart-mcdonalds-largest-employers-snap-medicaid-recipients

 

We are on different pages here, and that’s fine. I’m for slashing taxes everywhere, every place and every time. Income, sales, capital gains and many more .

The only fair taxes are land taxes and consumption taxes.  

[NeuroTypical]

32 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

As a nation, I think we took several steps back when we started slashing taxes for the wealthy in the 80s

It's been decades since I thought about this, but I remember the buzz as Reagan cut and slashed the Carter malaise stagflation rates.   If I remember correctly, some of the top rates were 90% of income. 

I pretty clearly remember the claim that pretty much nobody paid those high rates, and there were endless loopholes.  I forget the details, but it was something like 2% of millionaires ended up paying those top rates.  The claim was they were stupid feel-good bits of legislation passed by democrats to show they were doing something to stick it to the rich, but didn't really have any real effect. 

Fast forward to the present day, I'd like to remind everyone that Elon Musk paid $11,000,000,000 (that's eleven billion dollars) in taxes in 2021.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/20/investing/elon-musk-11-billion-dollars-taxes/index.html

I'd also like to remind everyone that not only was that not enough for folks like Elizabeth Warren, such stories are never enough for people who want to tax the rich.   There's always a surprisingly large segment of the eat-the-rich population that openly admits that nothing other than the extinction or elimination of the rich will be enough. 

I share some level of concern for the consolidation of power and wealth by a few, but folks lose me as soon as they start talking guillotines and whatnot.  After the UHC CEO assassination, I shouldn't still be surprised at how easy it is to find bloodthirsty people desiring the death of rich folk.  But I still manage to be surprised every time I look.