Why the Fight Over the Wall Matters

[Guest Scott]

23 minutes ago, askandanswer said:

Does anyone know how effective the border wall that Israel recently built when it comes to keeping out Palestinians, and how much it cost per kilometer? ANd how valid would that be as a comparison for what Trump would like to do? 

That's an excellent question.  Can anyone find an answer?   How much did the border wall in Israel cost?  

[Guest Godless]

9 minutes ago, Scott said:

If Trump can build an effective border wall along the southern for  $5.7 Billion, then he has my blessing.   I can tell you though, that it can't be done.  Maybe the Democrats should just let him have his $5.7 billion and let Trump take the blame when it is proven ineffective, or at least not to be impregnable.   

 

17 minutes ago, estradling75 said:

And I think the IDEA that someone has to lose BIG is the problem. Trump wants the wall.  He is making that big and clear (it is important to his base).  The wise thing would be for the Democrats to find something they want (that is important to their base) and go to the negotiating table.  This has a making for a classic win win... But the Democratic leadership is showing no signs of having a plan or agenda to help their base..  All they have is STOP Trump. They need a much better plan then that or they lose again.

Lost in this conversation is the fact that Congress, including some Democrats, already approved $1.6B for the wall last March. At that time, Dems were able to add restrictions on where the wall could be built and what materials could be used for it. Trump came back and demanded more. Not gonna hold that against him, but it's hard to say that the Dems haven't tried to hash this out with their GOP counterparts.

[Guest MormonGator]

I love this forum. Even though many people disagree, no one is really gotten obnoxious/contentious over this issue. It's called a discussion, not an argument. 

[unixknight]

7 minutes ago, Godless said:

Lost in this conversation is the fact that Congress, including some Democrats, already approved $1.6B for the wall last March. At that time, Dems were able to add restrictions on where the wall could be built and what materials could be used for it. Trump came back and demanded more. Not gonna hold that against him, but it's hard to say that the Dems haven't tried to hash this out with their GOP counterparts.

Actually, it's pretty easy to say that.  If @Scott is even close to being right about the actual cost, then $1.6B is peanuts and they'd have known it.  Giving that amount is nothing.  Heck, maybe $5B is peanuts too and won't be even remotely enough.  (Note:  I'm not conceding the $100B guesstimate is reliable.  Just making a point here.)

And that, my friends, is my OP.  This is about politics.  It's a showdown to see who gets the credibility and momentum going into 2020.  The actual status of the wall is almost irrelevant.

[unixknight]

2 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

I love this forum. Even though many people disagree, no one is really gotten obnoxious/contentious over this issue. It's called a discussion, not an argument. 

NO!  YOU'RE WRONG AND YOU'RE A BIG MEAN POOPYHEAD.  HOW DARE YOU DISAGREE WITH ME?!?!?!?!?!?!?!  YOU MUST BE A NAZI/LIBTARD/BIGOT/COMMIE!!!!!!!!!!!

[anatess2]

41 minutes ago, Scott said:

I didn't say a barrier wasn't necessary, I said that an effective wall that Trump is promising would be a lot more expensive than he say it is.

There are plenty of "barriers" that can be used to help curb illegal immigration.  I already mentioned one big one (going after companies that hire illegal immigrants).  More border patrol can be used as well, as well as fences.  Obviously those would also not be 100% effective. 

How's this?

If Trump can build an effective border wall along the southern for  $5.7 Billion, then he has my blessing.   I can tell you though, that it can't be done.  Maybe the Democrats should just let him have his $5.7 billion and let Trump take the blame when it is proven ineffective, or at least not to be impregnable.   

$5.7 Billion is not the total cost of the wall.  The total cost of the wall is $25 Billion that was left off the budget in the 2018 funding.  Remember that shutdown?  Trump offered the Democrats DACA in exchange for $25 Billion and Ryan stabbed him in the back because Ryan thinks Stephen Miller is a reprobate (ok, hyperbole there). Remember that?  Ryan announced he was leaving the House after that.

$5.7 Billion is the cost to build sections of the wall where majority of the illegal immigrants pass through.  This is not the end of that debate.  2020 budget is going to be the big showdown.

Edited January 16, 2019 by anatess2

[mirkwood]

12 minutes ago, unixknight said:

NO!  YOU'RE WRONG AND YOU'RE A BIG MEAN POOPYHEAD.  HOW DARE YOU DISAGREE WITH ME?!?!?!?!?!?!?!  YOU MUST BE A NAZI/LIBTARD/BIGOT/COMMIE!!!!!!!!!!!

No, he's a KISS fan.

[NeuroTypical]

14 minutes ago, unixknight said:

YOU MUST BE A NAZI/LIBTARD/BIGOT/COMMIE!!!!!!!!!!!

Why not all four?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Scott said:

An effective wall would likely cost at least $100 billion and would probably be a lot more than that. 

Where did you get that estimate from?

[unixknight]

4 minutes ago, mirkwood said:

No, he's a KISS fan.

 

 

2 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

Why not all four?

You mean there's a difference?

[Guest]

41 minutes ago, Scott said:

That's an excellent question.  Can anyone find an answer?   How much did the border wall in Israel cost?  

https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Israels-border-walls-A-case-study-For-Trumps-mantra-574517

In 2010 dollars, the wall cost $450MM for a 150 miles of solid concrete wall.  I'd suspect that we could do it cheaper per mile, but since there has been inflation, let's call it a wash.

1954 miles of border.

580 miles already covered.

100 miles too rough to cross or build (a number out of the air) leaves 1274 miles @ $3MM/mile = $3.8B.

That seems like a very small number compared to what we've been talking about.  My hunch is that part of that additional cost is all the other things you've been talking about:

Terrain/access, Eminent domain / legal issues, Environmental issues, Flooding issues, Political issues, Wages and other economics.

Yes, if the American people and the politicians had the will to clearly act on this, it would not even cost $10B.  It is all the artificial roadblocks that prevent us from doing it more cheaply.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Scott said:

...but the wall seems like a waste.

Let's take a look at your reasons.

Quote

Most illegal immigrants are those who overextend their work visas.

Anatess showed the statistics that debunk this statement.

Quote

The wall won't stop the majority of illegal immigrants. As a civil engineer (highways, but we built a lot of walls), I'm also very skeptical that it could be done for the cost that politicians are claiming. I'm betting that, if such a wall is built and it is to be effective that it will cost over $100 billion.

I believe I debunked that.

Quote

I also believe that we should do more to curb illegal immigration, but although effective at the border itself I don't know if a secured concrete wall is the best choice.

The Israeli wall is a solid concrete wall.  It works.  Lately they've had zero illegal crossings in the area of the wall.

Quote

At least some of Trump's current prototype walls are more of a fence than a wall.   They can easily be breached.

That's anyone's guess.

Quote

Here's another problem with the wall.    It would take a a lot of Eminent Domain.   

I'm with you there.  But even so, the news is blowing up the proportion of the land that would be required via eminent domain.

Quote

Of note, let's not forget that the Mormon Pioneers immigrated to the Salt Lake Valley illegally.   It seems that that is often forgotten.  

You'll have to explain that one.

Edited January 16, 2019 by Guest

[Guest Scott]

23 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

Where did you get that estimate from?

From a very rough and approximate cost of building a similar freeway wall.    Presumably, the cost would be cheaper for a border wall because of the size, so I reduced that.  

Also, a impregnable border wall would require border guards and towers.  

I can promise you that it would cost at least $100 million and that would include maintenance.  

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Scott said:

From a very rough and approximate cost of building a similar freeway wall.    Presumably, the cost would be cheaper for a border wall because of the size, so I reduced that.  

Also, a impregnable border wall would require border guards and towers.  

I can promise you that it would cost at least $100 million and that would include maintenance.  

Did you read my two posts above?

[Guest Scott]

1 hour ago, Carborendum said:

https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Israels-border-walls-A-case-study-For-Trumps-mantra-574517

In 2010 dollars, the wall cost $450MM for a 150 miles of solid concrete wall.  I'd suspect that we could do it cheaper per mile, but since there has been inflation, let's call it a wash.

1954 miles of border.

580 miles already covered.

100 miles too rough to cross or build (a number out of the air) leaves 1274 miles @ $3MM/mile = $3.8B.

That seems like a very small number compared to what we've been talking about.  My hunch is that part of that additional cost is all the other things you've been talking about:

Terrain/access, Eminent domain / legal issues, Environmental issues, Flooding issues, Political issues, Wages and other economics.

Yes, if the American people and the politicians had the will to clearly act on this, it would not even cost $10B.  It is all the artificial roadblocks that prevent us from doing it more cheaply.

Um, no.   You didn't read the article.  $450 million was for a fence at the Egyptian border, not a concrete wall.

See here:

After breaking ground in 2010, Israel completed the 242-km. (150-mile) fence in December 2013 at a cost of around $450 million.

The concrete wall in the photograph is part of the border with Lebanon, not Egypt (the Lebanon wall is at the opposite end of the Israel than the Egypt fence).  The cost of the concrete wall in question is not mentioned in the article.  

What your article does show however, that a fence can still be effective (even if not impregnable) and much cheaper.  

Here is a photo of the border fence between Egypt and Israel:

The one in the photograph above is the one that cost $450 million.  It is not a concrete wall.   There is a big difference. 

Quote

You'll have to explain that one.

What is there to explain?   I am talking about the law of the land and what is in our Church history.

When the Mormon Pioneers (illegally) emigrated to the Salt Lake Valley, the Salt Lake Valley was part of Mexico.   Mexico and the United States were at the time at war and by way of Mexican law it was illegal for citizens of the US to occupy Mexican territory.  Further, the United States Government itself forbade (as they have in other times) the Mormon Pioneers from leaving the country because they didn't want them to occupy and become citizens of a country that the US was at war with.  The Saints were only allowed to leave because the Federal Troops wanted to avoid a blood bath and war with the Mormons (there was a lot of panic on both sides) and because Brigham Young pledged Mormon soldiers for the Mormon Battalion to both prove their loyalty to the United States and for money that would help move the Saints to the Salt Lake Valley.

The Salt Lake Valley was part of Mexico until 1848.  All Mormon immigration into the valley before then was illegal.

The Church believed that Mexico wouldn't interfere because they had their hands tied with the war and because they believed that no one wanted the land that they were settling.  

Perhaps slightly off topic, but also interesting, migrating to Mexico wasn't the only idea that the Church had, but it was the one chosen in the end.   Mormon explorers were also sent to Minnesota and Texas to asses the practicality of settling there.   Deciding on the Salt Lake Valley was not a blind choice.  Other options were discussed as well.  The final decision to migrate to the valley may have based on a final answer to prayer, but there was a lot of work put into the decision.  The Church leadership also consulted trappers and Hasting's guide for information on the Salt Lake Valley before setting out.  They intentionally chose a place that would be hard to live in because they thought that they would be left alone that way.  

Quote

 

 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Scott

[Guest MormonGator]

51 minutes ago, mirkwood said:

No, he's a KISS fan.

Dude, you are obsessed with me liking Kiss. Much more so than I actually like Kiss! 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Scott said:

Um, no.   You didn't read the article.  $450 million was for a fence at the Egyptian border, not a concrete wall.

My bad.  Thanks for the correction.

So, let's do a quick calculation instead.

• A 20 ft concrete wall would need to be about 12" thick to handle the crash of a mid-sized vehicle (controlling load).
• The TIC cost of a precast wall to be delivered and erected at all points unknown will be about $1500/yd x mileage given above = about $10B.
• Then add piles at 8ft intervals x $2500/pile = $2.1B.
• Underground wall to prevent tunneling (let's short hand it and call it the same price as the above ground wall.  $10B.
• TIC = $22.1B.

That sounds remarkably similar to someone else's estimate of $25B.

These are numbers that I've seen in actual construction in the wastelands of west Texas.  So, certainly more than the $3B that I mentioned before.  But the $3B was a lot less than the $100B that you mentioned.

The only other argument to say it goes up is that it is a government job that always triples the cost.  So, $66.3B.  That's still shy of $100B.  And you're saying that was a generous lower limit?

Again, where are you getting your number?

Edited January 16, 2019 by Guest

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Scott said:

What is there to explain?   I am talking about the law of the land and what is in our Church history.

When the Mormon Pioneers (illegally) emigrated to the Salt Lake Valley, the Salt Lake Valley was part of Mexico.   Mexico and the United States were at the time at war and by way of Mexican law it was illegal for citizens of the US to occupy Mexican territory. 

That doesn't sound like "illegal".  It sounds like an invasion. 

Yup, illegal immigration is an invasion.  We invaded Mexico.  And those south of the border are invading the US.  I couldn't have said it better myself.

[askandanswer]

2 hours ago, unixknight said:

NO!  YOU'RE WRONG AND YOU'RE A BIG MEAN POOPYHEAD.  HOW DARE YOU DISAGREE WITH ME?!?!?!?!?!?!?!  YOU MUST BE A NAZI/LIBTARD/BIGOT/COMMIE!!!!!!!!!!!

I can't believe how long it's taken you to realise that!

[Guest Godless]

1 hour ago, anatess2 said:

Ryan thinks Stephen Miller is a reprobate.

Wait, Paul Ryan and I actually agree on something??? 

[Just_A_Guy]

4 hours ago, Scott said:

Of note, let's not forget that the Mormon Pioneers immigrated to the Salt Lake Valley illegally.   It seems that that is often forgotten.  

Yeah, how’d that work out for the Mexicans/Utes/Paiutes/Navajo?

Do you believe that the current crop of immigrants to the US is more altruistic, more tolerant, more respectful of the native-born population and its values, less tribal (in the sociological sense of the word), and less allegiant to their own cultural mores; than the Mormon pioneers were?

Why, or why not? 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Just_A_Guy

[anatess2]

26 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

Yeah, how’d that work out for the Mexicans/Utes/Paiutes/Navajo?

Do you believe that the current crop of immigrants to the US is more altruistic, more tolerant, more respectful of the native-born population and its values, less tribal (in the sociological sense of the word), and less allegiant to their own cultural mores; than the Mormon pioneers were?

Why, or why not? 

There's another 15K-strong caravan marching its way to the border.  Let's ask them.  My first question would be... why are you carrying the flag of the country you're fleeing from?

Interestingly... they're not getting oxygen in the press.  I wonder why...

Edited January 16, 2019 by anatess2

[NeuroTypical]

1 hour ago, Carborendum said:

2 hours ago, Scott said:

What is there to explain?   I am talking about the law of the land and what is in our Church history.

When the Mormon Pioneers (illegally) emigrated to the Salt Lake Valley, the Salt Lake Valley was part of Mexico.   Mexico and the United States were at the time at war and by way of Mexican law it was illegal for citizens of the US to occupy Mexican territory. 

That doesn't sound like "illegal".  It sounds like an invasion. 

Yup, illegal immigration is an invasion.  We invaded Mexico.  And those south of the border are invading the US.  I couldn't have said it better myself.

Worth noting that the US and Mexico were at war in part to settle borders, in part to deal with immigration.  And the resolution of the war didn't really resolve how immigration was going to be handled.  Mexico had a surplus of people, and the US had vast tracts of empty land and a need to fill it's frontier.  The war's end basically left the illegal immigration issue with sort of a mutual decision to not decide.

Also worth noting, that when two nations are at war over what's allowed and what isn't, you sort of do things an injustice calling them "Illegal".  

Finally, it's most worth noting that when things get bad enough over immigration and legal/illegal disagreements, sometimes we go to war and start killing each other as a way to settle things.

Edited January 16, 2019 by NeuroTypical

[unixknight]

2 hours ago, Scott said:

The Salt Lake Valley was part of Mexico until 1848.  All Mormon immigration into the valley before then was illegal.

I know others have addressed this, but my question is:

So what?

How is this at all relevant?  Is this supposed to mean that any Mormon who opposes illegal immigration is a hypocrite?  I don't think that's the point you're making so I'm left with:  So what?

[prisonchaplain]

22 hours ago, prisonchaplain said:

I'm not taking sides in this string. It does seem appropriate though to share how impressed and humbled I am to be part of a group of workers who take our mission seriously, and remain dedicated, despite being caught in the middle of this.

Maybe I should change my pic.