What’s Next?

[Traveler]

We live in changing times.  But many changes are not benefiting our country very much.   Now that Trump has taken office what are the expectations?   First off – I did not expect Trump to win – especially the popular vote.  I did not expect that even in deep blue regions that he would make headway with the public.  I am concerned that either our hope or our fear clouds our expectations.  Here are some of my thoughts – what are yours?

First expectation:  The calm before the storm.  I am somewhat dumbfounded that so many in the media and political landscape that accused Trump of worse than Hitler type of desire to destroy our freedoms and liberties are going to slither off softly into the night.  Some may have a come to Jesus moment but I suspect that the worse of what is coming will be more like an ambush.  Kind of a guerrilla warfare deflection kind of thing with lots of plausible deniability.

Second expectation: Bureaucratic rebellion.  The largest concentration of federal bureaucrats are in Washington DC, and they voted in numbers over 90% against Trump.  This troubles me.  Our government bureaucracy is way too politically minded, one sided and connected.  Nothing can be implemented in government without bureaucrats.  I speculate that a government shutdown is both possible and likely from within rebellion of bureaucrats.  I would compare our bureaucrats to vampires addicted to sucking the nation’s life blood.  They are hidden in the dark, powerful and intrenched. 

Third expectation: Diversity.  I am not sure that there is enough common ground to overcome the diversity that is crescendo ling.  The more we concentrate on our diversity the less we realize our common ground and what we can and should accomplish together.   I am concerned that the hatred of Trump and those the vote or support him is greater than the love of country and hope to work together for possible common interest.    When much of the nation thinks that best people are sad and worse people are happy with the election – Something has to give.  In geological terms we call such a giving a tectonic shift.  Tectonic shifts tend to cause a lot of damage.

 

The Traveler

[NeuroTypical]

Doge wish-list from a WSJ opinion piece with which I about 50% agree: 

The federal government has around three million civilian employees, with an average salary of $106,000. Dr. Anthony Fauci made $481,000 in 2022. There’s room to cut. Mr. Trump has said he may close the Education Department and move its function to the states. Good start.

Federal Trade Commission: Toss. The current FTC under Lina Khan has a worse record than the Chicago White Sox. The FTC already splits antitrust cases with the Justice Department, so move a few pro-consumer-competition lawyers there and then shutter.

Federal Communications Commission: Toss. The FCC caused the dot-com boom and bust. Net neutrality killed broadband in Europe yet was still reinstated here under the Biden administration. Spectrum auctions are why we overpay for cell service. Three economists in a back room can create and maintain a set of rules to keep access competitive.

Securities and Exchange Commission: Toss. The SEC missed the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, allowed crypto and SPAC pump-and-dumps, and missed the FTX fiasco. Free trading requires setting and enforcing simple rules.

U.S. Department of Agriculture: Toss. This will finally end corn subsidies for Iowa. We can move food-stamp administrators and funding to states.

Federal Reserve: Shrink. The central bank missed Bidenflation. Dart throwers could do better than its 400 Ph.D.s. Cut its funding.

Defense Department: Squeeze. Reallocate spending to drones, ships and defense systems such as Patriot missiles. Antimissile defenses can be a giant export business.

U.S. Postal Service: Toss. End its monopoly on first- and third-class mail. Go private. Amazon trucks already come to most neighborhoods every day.

Others to toss: Fracking happened despite the Energy Department. Do we need it? Trump tariffs will curtail imports, so we can shrink the Export-Import Bank by at least half. Close the Small Business Administration. And what does the Commerce Department even do?

Even more to toss: Labor Department—union puppets. Transportation Department—its mileage and electric-vehicle mandates killed Detroit, although Mr. Musk may want to run the department himself. Environmental Protection Agency—reduce its carbon footprint. Housing and Urban Development—it isn’t the ’70s anymore. Interior—outsource parks to Disney. Veterans Affairs—can’t they use the same hospitals as the rest of us, no matter who pays?

[Carborendum]

6 minutes ago, Traveler said:

Third expectation: Diversity.  I am not sure that there is enough common ground to overcome the diversity that is crescendo ling.  The more we concentrate on our diversity the less we realize our common ground and what we can and should accomplish together.   I am concerned that the hatred of Trump and those the vote or support him is greater than the love of country and hope to work together for possible common interest.    When much of the nation thinks that best people are sad and worse people are happy with the election – Something has to give.  In geological terms we call such a giving a tectonic shift.  Tectonic shifts tend to cause a lot of damage.

Diversity of intersectionality is what is bad.  

Diversity of experience that will inform the whole is good.

Diversity of traits that cannot be changed is meaningless.

Diversity of core values is a recipe for civil war.

[Carborendum]

44 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

• The federal government has around three million civilian employees, with an average salary of $106,000. Dr. Anthony Fauci made $481,000 in 2022. 

That alone will amount to about $0.5T to $1.8T when including cost factor multipliers.  But that would require firing all 3Million.

Quote

U.S. Department of Agriculture: Toss. This will finally end corn subsidies for Iowa. We can move food-stamp administrators and funding to states.

This will enrage many a farmer.  But it is something that should be done.  It was a bad idea to implement it.  And I'm surprised that it is still a thing.  There is no legitimate purpose for a Federal entity such as this.  Technology today makes it perfectly manageable at the state level.

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Federal Reserve

Make it a part of the Dept of Treasury.  I think it should be reduced to a government office of a couple dozen administrators and support staff and the personnel required to run the facilities (printing presses, vaults, trucks, etc.).  The interest that it generates will become a source of income for the Federal govt.

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Post Office

Definitely privatize it.  If it is run well, it will eventually figure out a system of paying for itself.  If not, another private entity will pick up the demand (if any).

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DoD

I realize it can and should be reduced.  But I know just enough to know that it is not as easy as it sounds.  As such, I don't know what the best approach would be.

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DoE

There is a need. But it should have a greatly diminished role.

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Commerce

It regulates the rules of interstate and international trade.  Enforcing contracts between states and negotiating/enforcing treaties with foreign nations are the primary function.  It is necessary to do so.  And it is an itemized power of the Federal Government. But it is FAR more powerful than the Constitution ever allowed under the Commerce Clause (thanks to Filburn).

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EPA

As a department, we need to get rid of it.  No "regulations".  Only legislation (laws passed by Congress).  The DoJ will still be in charge of enforcing.

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Veteran Affairs

No separate Department for them.  They should be a part of the DoD. 
Yes, fund medical needs for the veterans.  But don't force them to use the poorly run VA medical centers.  Let them use the same doctors we all tend to go to. 

Yes, get rid of the rest of them.  They do nothing useful.

Edited November 18, 2024 by Carborendum

[Vort]

Please keep in mind that there will no longer be any free elections in the US. Never again. Free elections are a thing of the past. This we know absolutely to be true, because every prominent Democrat clearly said so in the weeks and months leading up to the election.

[Carborendum]

5 minutes ago, Vort said:

Please keep in mind that there will no longer be any free elections in the US. Never again. Free elections are a thing of the past. This we know absolutely to be true, because every prominent Democrat clearly said so in the weeks and months leading up to the election.

Don't worry.  If Trump doesn't do all the nasty things that Dems predicted, they (Dems) will make sure to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[zil2]

41 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

U.S. Postal Service: Toss. End its monopoly on first- and third-class mail. Go private. Amazon trucks already come to most neighborhoods every day.

Noooooo!  As one of the few thousand people who still send postal letters - please, no!  Amazon / FedEx / UPS would not take over sending my letters - not for a price any normal person could afford.  And a variety of providers would make for more lost mail and slower service.  I've been subsidizing your spouse and children for my whole life, now you all get to subsidize my pen-pals.

[Carborendum]

Whoa!  I just discovered that if we got rid of the dept of housing... that would be about $5000 for every US citizen.  For my family, that would be $50,000 per year.

[Carborendum]

3 minutes ago, zil2 said:

Noooooo!  As one of the few thousand people who still send postal letters - please, no!  Amazon / FedEx / UPS would not take over sending my letters - not for a price any normal person could afford.  And a variety of providers would make for more lost mail and slower service.  I've been subsidizing your spouse and children for my whole life, now you all get to subsidize my pen-pals.

Private industry has an option that is already working.  Instead of daily deliveries to everyone's house, we'd have to rent a box (e.g. Mailboxes, Etc.).  If the only effect would be to get rid of daily mail carriers, that would save nearly $1B.

Also, many more payees would be willing to accept electronic payments (some places still require a physical check).

[zil2]

17 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

Private industry has an option that is already working.  Instead of daily deliveries to everyone's house, we'd have to rent a box (e.g. Mailboxes, Etc.).  If the only effect would be to get rid of daily mail carriers, that would save nearly $1B.

Also, many more payees would be willing to accept electronic payments (some places still require a physical check).

Like I said, a price ordinary people can afford.  I don't know what the point is with electronic payments, so I'm ignoring that.  Right now, I can send a letter inside the US for $0.45 (because I bought a gazillion "forever" stamps eons ago) and internationally for $1.65 (I think that's the current rate - also bought some "global forever" stamps).  I don't have to rent anything.

[Carborendum]

11 minutes ago, zil2 said:

Like I said, a price ordinary people can afford.  I don't know what the point is with electronic payments, so I'm ignoring that.  Right now, I can send a letter inside the US for $0.45 (because I bought a gazillion "forever" stamps eons ago) and internationally for $1.65 (I think that's the current rate - also bought some "global forever" stamps).  I don't have to rent anything.

I feel ya.  I've got a bazillion forever stamps once upon a time.  We're finally running low.

So, what kinds of things do you do through snail mail that makes it indispensable for you?

The point about electronic payments:  Most people only use snail mail for government entities who still don't have online methods of communications or receiving funds.   Virtually all other uses of mail have more commonly been replaced by electronic equivalents.

Sometimes snail mail will include things like Christmas cards, wedding invitations, etc.  But it is rare.  The great majority of communications is now electronic.   The fact that you still have a lot of stamps remaining is evidence of that.

For parcels, yes, Amazon and UPS have the corner market.  The P.O. simply cannot compete with that level of service for the price.

As far as a box, you can easily disperse the costs by sharing with some friends or extended family that are in the general area.

Edited November 18, 2024 by Carborendum

[NeuroTypical]

29 minutes ago, zil2 said:

Noooooo!  As one of the few thousand people who still send postal letters - please, no!

I get it.  My dad was a printer-proofreader, from a long line of printers.  My ancestors ran print shops and published small-town newspapers.  Then computers and dot-matrix printers showed up, and the entire industry collapsed.  Replaced, as my dad said, with a dumb high school kid and the F7 button.

Just like the horse and buggy industry, buggy-whip manufacturers and all, collapsed after automobiles.  Or how the cast iron stove industry collapsed after federal regulations demanded efficiency improvements.  Or the incandescent light bulb industry with flourescents and LEDs.  Or the Kodak/FotoMarts with digital media.

I mean, you can still buy buggy whips and cast iron stoves.  We got an actual polaroid photo taken of us at a cousin's wedding and sat there and taught the children as the photo developed.   But yeah, the only reason the us post office is still around, is govt never shrinks or adapts, especially if the constitution itself says "The Congress shall have Power ... To establish Post Offices".

If using FedExor whatever is a hit to your art, maybe consider a boost like sealing a letter with a wax seal?  

 

[Carborendum]

48 minutes ago, zil2 said:

Noooooo!  As one of the few thousand people who still send postal letters - please, no!  Amazon / FedEx / UPS would not take over sending my letters - not for a price any normal person could afford.

3 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

If using FedEx or whatever is a hit to your art, maybe consider a boost like sealing a letter with a wax seal?  

I get it now, Ms. Fountain Pen afficionada. 

You like writing letters.  It's an art. There's a certain personal element with unique panache that cannot be duplicated electronically.

Yup.  That would be a big hit to your level of personal expression.

I was just having a conversation with a co-worker about how the rising generation doesn't know cursive anymore.  A kid he knew that just became an adult had trouble because he wasn't allowed to sign a form in print.  It had to be cursive.  And he couldn't sign it.  I figure we'll have to do a thumb print on all our documents now instead of signing it.

The times, they are a changin'.

[zil2]

20 hours ago, Carborendum said:

So, what kinds of things do you do through snail mail that makes it indispensable for you?

As I said previously: I write to my pen-pals.  And if you think that's the same as emailing, it's only because you've forgotten the extreme difference between emails and hand-written letters received in a mailbox.

Edited November 19, 2024 by zil2

[zil2]

12 minutes ago, NeuroTypical said:

If using FedEx or whatever is a hit to your art, maybe consider a boost like sealing a letter with a wax seal?  

I already have wax and seals.  I could not afford to send my letters at FedEx prices - who could?  According to FedEx, sending a letter to my friend in Austria would cost me $99.23 (as opposed to $1.65).  My pen-pals are in:

• Canada
• UK (England) x2
• Australia
• Austria
• New York state
• Pennsylvania
• New Jersey
• Florida
• Sweden / Germany (he's a university student in Sweden, but from Germany - I have both addresses)

And I'm open to adding more.   If I could not send letters at (near) postal rates, I would not be able to send letters at all, and this would be a tragedy (and that is not hyperbole).

5 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

The times, they are a changin'.

And I'm a-resistin'!  (As are all my kind.)  Like I said, I subsidized your marriage and children, so I'm not going to feel bad about demanding you subsidize my pen-pals.

[Carborendum]

2 minutes ago, zil2 said:

Like I said, I subsidized your marriage and children, so I'm not going to feel bad about demanding you subsidize my pen-pals.

In my tax bracket, no one is subsidizing me for anything.  That may change next year when I may have to take a "normal job."  But for now...

[zil2]

2 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

In my tax bracket, no one is subsidizing me for anything.  That may change next year when I may have to take a "normal job."  But for now...

Single people have been subsidizing married people and people with children for ages.  Would you be paying more if you filed as a single person?  Would you pay more (now or previously) if you couldn't  (hadn't been able to) count your children as dependents?  Pretty sure you would be / have been.

I'm perfectly fine with removing waste / fraud / abuse from the postal service.  But ending the postal service would be a nightmare for letter-senders and small businesses who use them for package delivery.  Amazon would become more of a monopoly, small businesses would go out of business because of the "free shipping" obsession, and letter-sending would cease altogether.

[Carborendum]

3 minutes ago, zil2 said:

Single people have been subsidizing married people and people with children for ages.  Would you be paying more if you filed as a single person?  Would you pay more (now or previously) if you couldn't  (hadn't been able to) count your children as dependents?  Pretty sure you would be / have been.

I'm aware.  In the past, yes.  But the additional amount I'm paying currently in taxes is far more than the deductions I get for being married or having children.

Edited November 18, 2024 by Carborendum

[zil2]

25 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

But the additional amount I'm paying currently in taxes is far more than the deductions I get for being married or having children.

Are you saying you don't get any deductions?  If you get deductions, single people are subsidizing you.  The end.  It doesn't matter if you're paying obscene amounts of income tax now, it only matters if you're paying less because of filing married and with dependents.

NOTE: I am not arguing one way or the other how income tax and marriage and children should or should not be handled.  I'm arguing the simple fact that as a single person for all but 7 years of my life, I paid more taxes so that (in theory), you could pay less.  Now I'm flipping the tables and saying that as a user of the postal service, I want all tax-payers to subsidize the postal service, whether they use it or not, so that I can go on using it.

[pam]

5 hours ago, Traveler said:

We live in changing times.  But many changes are not benefiting our country very much.   Now that Trump has taken office what are the expectations?   

He hasn't taken office yet. But I'm expecting our borders will once again close. Or at least an attempt to close them. He has a lot to do and 4 years isn't very long as he can't run again. 

[SilentOne]

15 hours ago, Carborendum said:

If it is run well, it will eventually figure out a system of paying for itself.

When I worked for the post office around 2011, it would have been paying for itself if congress hadn't required them to prefund retirement benefits 70 years in advance. Apparently some changes were made in 2022, but I haven't read up on them.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-approves-50-billion-postal-service-relief-bill-2022-03-08/

[JohnsonJones]

17 hours ago, Carborendum said:

No separate Department for them.  They should be a part of the DoD. 

Yes, fund medical needs for the veterans.  But don't force them to use the poorly run VA medical centers.  Let them use the same doctors we all tend to go to. 

Yes, get rid of the rest of them.  They do nothing useful.

You aren't a Veteran...are you?

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So, what kinds of things do you do through snail mail that makes it indispensable for you?

The point about electronic payments:  Most people only use snail mail for government entities who still don't have online methods of communications or receiving funds.   Virtually all other uses of mail have more commonly been replaced by electronic equivalents.

Sometimes snail mail will include things like Christmas cards, wedding invitations, etc.  But it is rare.  The great majority of communications is now electronic.   The fact that you still have a lot of stamps remaining is evidence of that.

I don't know if it's indispensable or not.  I use USPS to mail 20 dollar bills in cards to grandkids for Birthdays and Christmas though.  They may be a little disappointed if that stopped.

I suppose I could try another service, never really felt the need to to though. 

Edited November 19, 2024 by JohnsonJones

[pam]

18 hours ago, zil2 said:

As I said previously: I write to my pen-pals.  And if you think that's the same as emailing, it's only because you've forgotten the extreme difference between emails and hand-written letters receive in a mailbox.

I'm with you. I still like the personal touches of being able to send a letter, a thank you note or Christmas cards through the mail. 

[zil2]

1 hour ago, pam said:

I'm with you. I still like the personal touches of being able to send a letter, a thank you note or Christmas cards through the mail. 

Not that anyone would care, but there's a whole new industry that would go out of business if the postal service shut down - stories told in the form of letters.   There are a variety to choose from for each company that offers them.  Some appear to be romance stories, others are mysteries.  They appear to include paper "souvenirs" like tickets, pictures, etc.  But they're all as if someone living the story is writing you letters, and they're delivered via postal mail, as a series over multiple months / weeks.  Whatever the cost to get the story, the price would double (or more) if it cost package rates to ship the letter (and it would cost package rates to ship the letter via any service other than the postal service).

There are also charities that ask people to write letters to those in the armed services, in nursing homes, to aging veterans, etc.  You write your letter and send it to the charity, they then distribute the letters to the folks identified as needing them (after removing your outer envelope so the recipient doesn't get to know who's writing them, just whatever name you sign on the letter).  Again, an entire service ended.

Folks who don't use the USPS for meaningful things don't realize (or don't value) the meaningful ways in which others use it.

By all means, get rid of government stupidity when it comes to running the place, but to end it would be tragic.

Edited November 19, 2024 by zil2

[Carborendum]

37 minutes ago, zil2 said:

Not that anyone would care, but...

I spent all of my childhood and much of my young adult life not understanding or caring about aesthetics.  One could call it an Asperger trait.

I've since learned the appreciation thereof because of very technical reasons.  I understand the need and the benefit even if I have no talent to contribute.

I hope you can continue in these pursuits to make the world a more beautiful place.

Edited November 19, 2024 by Carborendum