Borders, Trade and International Developments

[Carborendum]

So, it seems the Panama Canal debacle is still up in the air.  At the end of the day, "might makes right" may rule.

China put forth the laughable suggestion that they could create the "Mexico Canal just west of the Yucatan.  I just took a look at the terrain. Yeah, good luck with that. 

I'd really like to see China try that.  It would bankrupt China and Mexico put together.  And this one could be so expensive that it would be difficult for even the US to deal with it.

BTW, China has a terrible track record for infrastructure projects.  If they went through with such an endeavor, it would be fraught with debacle-after-debacle.  China would eventually abandon the project, and Mexico would be stuck with a major disruption in the terrain that might take decades to work around or fix.

Edited April 21 by Carborendum

[NeuroTypical]

4 hours ago, Carborendum said:

BTW, China has a terrible track record for infrastructure projects. 

Dang Carb, you trying to win some sort of understatement trophy or something?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937756

 

[SilentOne]

10 hours ago, Carborendum said:

China has a terrible track record for infrastructure projects

They've got a pretty impressive wall system

[Carborendum]

9 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Dang Carb, you trying to win some sort of understatement trophy or something?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Banqiao_Dam_failure

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937756

 

Well, that's what I do for a living.

I remember an event.  It may have been the Banqiao Dam or the Three Gorges Dam.  But the effect on surrounding buildings was catastrophic.  Many buildings were basically washed away.

Some gigantic building (it was either an office building or an apartment complex) that was built on a hill.  They did a decent job on the structure.  But when the floods came, it washed away most of the hill.

The building actually slid and tipped over without breaking (the entire building moved as a monolithic unit).  Then just before it actually hit the ground at the bottom, it began breaking apart in mid-air.  And great was the fall thereof.

For the size of the building, there were remarkably few deaths.  Then I found out that it was one of those government projects to house a bunch of people in an area where no one really lived.

They just have no clue how populations work.  That is the doom of almost all socialist/communist countries. 

[Ironhold]

3 hours ago, Carborendum said:

They just have no clue how populations work.  That is the doom of almost all socialist/communist countries. 

It's also the whole "the powers that be say it must be done on this schedule, so it will be done on this schedule" mindset coupled with the often inferior quality of products they have access to and the lack of training & education that many of their laborers have. 

They can build massive highways and entire cities in short order, only for those places to either go unused because the powers-that-be misread the population movement trends or crumble around everyone because they were churned out too fast for the materials to properly set up.

[mordorbund]

23 hours ago, Carborendum said:

it seems the Panama Canal debacle is still up in the air. 

Isn’t that the passage that connects the East American Ocean and the West American Ocean?

[Carborendum]

And it appears that China has come to the negotiating table.  I hope it turns out ok for everyone.

[NeuroTypical]

28 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

And it appears that China has come to the negotiating table.

Trump and I must have watched the same Law & Order episode back 25 years ago.   Everyone hated the new managing partner, and was preparing to oust him.   Before they got their dirty tricks underway, he called an emergency meeting.  He revealed that he had landed a surprise account for the guy who hated him most.  He then said something about pulling a few strings to get a judge to okay an appeal that would put them back on the map in the legislation world.  Then he pulled out a stack of envelopes and passed them around, saying these were their Christmas bonuses.  A confused partner said "I thought we were circling the drain and couldn't afford bonuses this year."   He replied that he had started shopping around for cheaper office space.  When the partner started to get mad, he said "relax, we're not going anywhere.  But just the threat that we might, brought the building manager to the table and I renegotiated our yearly lease down by enough to get us all bonuses."

Someday I might actually read his 'art of the deal' book.  

[Phoenix_person]

On 4/23/2025 at 2:38 PM, Carborendum said:

And it appears that China has come to the negotiating table.  I hope it turns out ok for everyone.

Spokesman for the Chinese Embassy, posted Friday evening:

[NeuroTypical]

Trump is absolutely playing unfair hardball, unashamedly, out in the open.  The math is simple - we don't buy necessities from China, just stuff we can do without.  China's economy is based on exporting to us, and they need us to fuel their economy and stay employed.  China has upwards of ten million jobs they could lose very quickly.  The US has maybe a little cold breeze through our economy as everyone retools and finds other suppliers.  Everything else is just noise.   Interesting question: If China refuses to blink, and just goes on a murderous deadly communist rampage to suppress the dissent of its own citizens as they lose their jobs and get mad, is it Trump's fault?   

The US administration is changing from the world's pushover parent that hands over the credit card to all it's kids to shut them up, to hard-nosed my-way-or-the-highway domineering parent that forces it's children to work 4 hours of backbreaking chores on Saturday before they can go play.  Punishment is swift and severe for children who disobey or talk back.

I have mixed emotions.  I liked the post-WWII US-led peace and prosperity that has caused the greatest lifting of human rights, health, and wealth ever seen.  I'm not sure what things will look like after the transformation.  On the other hand, it has been obvious to me and others for over a decade, that the US can't continue to survive with it's ever-increasing deficits, waste/fraud/abuse on a global scale, and a million corrupt ways to funnel money to our enemies.  

So, yeah.  Bumpy ride.  China doesn't appear happy.

Edited Tuesday at 08:10 PM by NeuroTypical

[Phoenix_person]

2 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

China's economy is based on exporting to us, and they need us to fuel their economy and stay employed.  China has upwards of ten million jobs they could lose very quickly. 

China's economy is based on ~15% of its exports? I imagine they can make up at least some of that if their efforts to strengthen trade with their immediate neighbors prove fruitful, and the rest can be made up by increasing exports to countries that are on Trump's black list. China has become the biggest exporter in the world in the last 20 years. Trump isn't negotiating from a position of strength, and China knows it.

2 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

The US has maybe a little cold breeze through our economy as everyone retools and finds other suppliers. 

Where? Mexico? Canada? Because those trade talks are going so well? The US has become heavily trade-dependent in ways that can't be reversed in 4 years. 

2 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Interesting question: If China refuses to blink, and just goes on a murderous deadly communist rampage to suppress the dissent of its own citizens as they lose their jobs and get mad, is it Trump's fault?   

I'm more worried about dissent suppression a little closer to home at present. Trump cares about personal loyalty to HIM above all else. And now he doesn't need to worry about winning another election, and he's acting like he has executive immunity thanks to his SCOTUS basically saying he does. There's a reason he wasn't this brazen in his first term. He (or someone advising him) understood that vindictiveness doesn't win elections. I don't want a vindictive Republican in office any more than you (or I) want a vindictive Dem there, especially if Congress isn't going to fill their role in the "checks and balances" part of governing and no one is going to enforce court decisions.

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/trump-s-attacks-on-justice-department-independence--then-and-now

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/04/24/trump-actblue-fundraising-order-investigation-foreign-donations/83250033007/

2 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

The US administration is changing from the world's pushover parent that hands over the credit card to all it's kids to shut them up, to hard-nosed my-way-or-the-highway domineering parent that forces it's children to work 4 hours of backbreaking chores on Saturday before they can go play.  Punishment is swift and severe for children who disobey or talk back.

Again, I don't see where the leverage is with Trump's sweeping tariffs. IF tariffs were to be effective, they'd have to be more strategically targeted. All he's doing is removing the US from the trade market and creating an international rush to fill the void. Because despite what you seem to think, the world economy doesn't revolve around us. How's the Dollar doing, btw?

Edited Tuesday at 09:42 PM by Phoenix_person

[NeuroTypical]

Yay!  Arguing economics!   I bet if we try hard, the two of us can come up with at least 3 opinions!

14 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

Trump isn't negotiating from a position of strength, and China knows it.
...
Again, I don't see where the leverage is with Trump's sweeping tariffs.

I'm new to opining about such things, and trying hard to cast a wide net across folks who seem to be bright about such things.  It seems to me that the US has great leverage with China, but China may endure all sorts of hardships in order to save face.  Trump is supposedly the dealmaker, the next few months we might see deals being made.  I don't know.

 

17 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

Where? Mexico? Canada? Because those trade talks are going so well? The US has become heavily trade-dependent in ways that can't be reversed in 4 years. 

True, but even as we speak, all the companies importing things into the US are looking at what they import from China, and finding ways to import from other places, or even move manufacturing into the US.  

 

20 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

I don't want a vindictive Republican in office any more than you (or I) want a vindictive Dem there, especially if Congress isn't going to fill their role in the "checks and balances" part of governing and no one is going to enforce court decisions.

Probably my biggest worry about Trump, is how he has acted against the court in that one case.  I've always been big on presidents acting presidential - it's been a gripe I've had about a lot of presidents.  And POTUS is supposed to be big on checks and balances and our constitutional institutions. The fewer the steamrolling over court decisions the better.  

Oh, and Trump is a Republican in the same way that a biological man is a woman.  Pretending it's true does little besides weaken what words mean, and tick off conservatives.  

 

26 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

How's the Dollar doing, btw?

The dollar is doing extremely well, as usual, thank you.  That 6 month panicky chart sort of disappears into the noise when you look at a higher elevation.   

[LDSGator]

1 minute ago, NeuroTypical said:

Trump is a Republican in the same way that a biological man is a woman.

Amen to that. AuH2o, Reagan and Buckley (all great men) would be appalled by Trump. 

[Carborendum]

40 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

China's economy is based on ~15% of its exports?

Close.  A little more than that: 17.4% https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-chinas-dependence-on-u-s-trade/

Let's give credit where it's due.

And how much do they buy from us?  $36.4B

vs $501B

Who will lose more if we completely shut down trade between us?

40 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

I imagine they can make up at least some of that if their efforts to strengthen trade with their immediate neighbors prove fruitful, and the rest can be made up by increasing exports to countries that are on Trump's black list. China has become the biggest exporter in the world in the last 20 years. Trump isn't negotiating from a position of strength, and China knows it.

I think you overestimate the ability and willingness of the rest of the world to go along with that.  Time will tell.

40 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

Where? Mexico? Canada? Because those trade talks are going so well? The US has become heavily trade-dependent in ways that can't be reversed in 4 years. 

I agree.  4 years is unrealistic to re-adjust to everything.  But the overall plan is a multi-variate equation.  And there is a lot more going on than a simple look at trade relations with a single nation alone.

40 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

I'm more worried about dissent suppression a little closer to home at present. Trump cares about personal loyalty to HIM above all else.

Where did you get that from? Admittedly, for a well-oiled machine to work properly, all the pieces of the machine need to work toward a common goal.  That's true for any leader.  But if you're making this into some mob-boss edict or dictatorial paranoia, you'll have to show some evidence of that.

40 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

And now he doesn't need to worry about winning another election, and he's acting like he has executive immunity thanks to his SCOTUS basically saying he does. There's a reason he wasn't this brazen in his first term. He (or someone advising him) understood that vindictiveness doesn't win elections. I don't want a vindictive Republican in office any more than you (or I) want a vindictive Dem there, especially if Congress isn't going to fill their role in the "checks and balances" part of governing and no one is going to enforce court decisions.

I'll offer a different perspective.  He fully expects to be assassinated in this term in office. 

That's why he's getting as much done as possible before he dies.  He doesn't want it all to be for nothing.

40 minutes ago, Phoenix_person said:

 How's the Dollar doing, btw?

That chart is about as exaggerated as the increase in left-handedness was used to compare the rise in trans.

Take a hard look at the numbers and what the percentages and scales are.  That's nothing.

Edited Tuesday at 10:21 PM by Carborendum

[Phoenix_person]

 

49 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

Where did you get that from? Admittedly, for a well-oiled machine to work properly, all the pieces of the machine need to work toward a common goal.  That's true for any leader.  But if you're making this into some mob-boss edict or dictatorial paranoia, you'll have to show some evidence of that.

This article breaks it down very well.

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/21/trump-retaliation-revenge-biden-security-clearance

49 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

I'll offer a different perspective.  He fully expects to be assassinated in this term in office. 

That's why he's getting as much done as possible before he dies.  He doesn't want it all to be for nothing.

I guess the people who stock his official merch missed that theory, as did his son. I don't think that bullet broke anything in Trump that wasn't already broken. 

 

[Carborendum]

13 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

This article breaks it down very well.

https://www.axios.com/2025/03/21/trump-retaliation-revenge-biden-security-clearance

This article can be summarized into the following categories:

1.  Baseless accusations.
2. Conspiracy theories.
3. Misattributed motives to perfectly common and/or legal and appropriate actions.  Try comparing that list of supposed "retaliatory acts" to what has happened in the past for former administration personnel.  You'll find very little variation from precedent.  It just isn't discussed much.  But in the hands of the liberal media, any common thing that Trump does is immediately conjoined with ulterior motives.

13 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

I guess the people who stock his official merch missed that theory, as did his son. I don't think that bullet broke anything in Trump that wasn't already broken. 

Who said anything about "broken"?  It's just a reality.  When the majority of the Democratic party believes it is acceptable to use violence to achieve political ends, why wouldn't he believe it?

When Pritzker gives an address calling for mass protests and mass disruption, what do you think that 55% of Democrats are going to do with that?

Sure, it will be "mostly peaceful" like all the BLM protests have been in the past.  And, of course, no one will damage property like Tesla has been seeing for the past several months.  And, obviously, no one will perform violence, like Luigi Mangione while being cheered on by his adoring fans.

Given the very public track record of just how "peaceful" Democrats have been for the past 15 years, forgive me if I'm not as nonchalant about how these protests are going to turn out.

No, Trump is at the stage that he is old enough to have lived a full life mostly in the spot light.  Sure, he's hopeful that he will survive, to die peacefully in his sleep.  But he knows how many want him dead.  And he wants to give a gift to humanity before he bows out at his final curtain call. 

***********

EDIT: About the 2028 Merch.  That's just political theater.  And you're falling right into his trap. 

His goal is to get his opponents so worked up that they can't think straight.  They get angry enough that they trip over themselves clinging to any conspiracy theory and running it through the news until it is debunked the next day.  Thus pretty much anything the left says is immediately disregarded as the fake news that it is.

If they would just stop for a moment and consider that he is not in fact Hitler, they would realize how much of it is just wishful thinking.  Then you might actually focus on Trump's REAL weaknesses.  You might actually win.

Edited Wednesday at 12:18 PM by Carborendum

[Phoenix_person]

 

20 hours ago, Carborendum said:

EDIT: About the 2028 Merch.  That's just political theater.  And you're falling right into his trap. 

His goal is to get his opponents so worked up that they can't think straight.  They get angry enough that they trip over themselves clinging to any conspiracy theory and running it through the news until it is debunked the next day.  Thus pretty much anything the left says is immediately disregarded as the fake news that it is.

If they would just stop for a moment and consider that he is not in fact Hitler, they would realize how much of it is just wishful thinking.  Then you might actually focus on Trump's REAL weaknesses.  You might actually win.

I grasp that. I prefer presidents that try to unite people rather than divide them, and who don't joke about trying to subvert the Constitution. But maybe I'm just old-fashioned.

[Carborendum]

3 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

I grasp that. I prefer presidents that try to unite people rather than divide them

In a softer time, in an age when a President and the opposing  Speaker could regularly sit down together for lunch together (Reagan & Kissenger) that would certainly be ideal.

But we both know that we no longer live in such times.  Trump actually asked Pelosi and Schumer to sit down in such meetings to hopefully become friends.  They did meet.  But the Speaker and Dem Leader simply couldn't get the picture of Hitler off of their minds during the entire meeting.  They also couldn't get their minds off of all their kick-backs that they were getting from the many government programs that DOGE is shutting down.

We live in a time when political rhetoric rules.  And quite frankly, it is not just the politicians.  The people are divided into only listening to partisan hackery...Like calling their political opponents "Hitler" and decrying every action as "unconstitutional".

I've heard it said (and I'm inclined to lean to this belief) that we're in a "soft civil war."

Do I want it this way?  NO!!!  Would I end these patterns?  I certainly wish there were a way.

3 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

, and who don't joke about trying to subvert the Constitution. But maybe I'm just old-fashioned.

Forgive me, but this reeks of straining at the gnat and swallowing the camel.

We have district judges claiming equal authority to the President  Yes, Boasberg actually said that.

We have judges who violate the law (harboring fugitives who smuggle fentanyl and other drugs across the border) while supporters are cheering them on?

There are times that political theater is all that gets through to people.  Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't.  Maybe it goes over the line.  Maybe it doesn't.

I'm confident that he has no plans to run again.  And it seems that you agree.

Today the political world includes people who prefer an illigal alien who beats his wife, participates in human trafficking, and rapes/murders litle girls to be returned to the US as a free man. 

I'd prefer the jokes and theater rather than the actual constitutional violations of prioritizing of such illegal monsters over everyday US citizens.

Edited yesterday at 12:43 PM by Carborendum