The end of work as we know it

[Tyme]

There is going to be a wave of automation to hit the U.S. soon. It will eliminate around 40% of jobs. That means there is going to be a lot of people out of work. As work is a principal of the gospel that leaves me with one question. What will the church do when 40% of the population can't work? I guess it could be an unprecedented time of church growth. The church members who are not employed can focus on building up Zion or other charity work. As I assume the government will come up with some kind of way to pay the unemployed. It seems even if they are paid by the government somehow it will leave a lot of idle time. That violates principals of the gospel. Will the church turn away from work as a principal?

[dogwater]

That's one projection. Other projections indicate more jobs with higher productivity and increased standard of living. Still others project the singularity (and hard and soft versions of that)
Homo Deus offers another projection, without the economic analysis and is a fascinating book as was Sapiens it's forerunner as prequel as wrong in this context

 

[Emmanuel Goldstein]

Begin studying Robotics and coding and you should be fine.

[Grunt]

40% of people won't be out of work.  They'll shift to emerging markets, just like they've done for all of history.   

[zil]

I thought 40% of people already refuse to work, so....

[anatess2]

Great!  Does that mean the USA will finally stop importing slave labor through illegal immigration?

[Guest MormonGator]

It's the end of the world as we know it....and I feel fine. 

[Traveler]

Greetings one and all - may I introduce my self.  My college major was math and physics.  I have spent most of my life working as an engineer in the field of automation, robotics and artificial intelligence.  Oh the stories I could tell.  There is a lot of misconception.  Automation is not going to put people out of work - not even one. The proper term is displacement because of inadequate education.  Automation is going to make more opportunities - not fewer.  150 years ago over 90% of the population worked in agriculture - today fewer that 10% of the population work in agriculture.  This is because a lot of jobs in agriculture have been automated.  So is 85% of the population out of work?  

Actually there is more opportunity for work in our current economic structure than there was 100 years ago.  What has changed is that workers need more skills and this could also be said as different skills.  Needs in education have always followed needs in the economic workplace.  The reason we are having this discussion is because education is falling farther and farther behind the economic need.  Technology is advancing and changing.  But worse - education has fallen so far behind and out of touch that even educators are ill equipped to educate the populace and prepare enough intelligent and capable workers in the changing economic workplace.  Tenure and tradition in education is grossly antiquated inadequate and out of date.  Education has become more a social engineering project than a useful education. 

The fact that anyone thinks automation means less jobs is proof that education has failed.

one last thought - my workplace motto is: "Every one automate - pronounced: ought-to-mate."  😀

 

The Traveler

Edited November 21, 2018 by Traveler

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Traveler said:

"Every one automate - pronounced: ought-to-mate."

I don't know which would be harder for the uneducated person to read.

[Fether]

15 hours ago, Tyme said:

There is going to be a wave of automation to hit the U.S. soon.

I sure hope so! Think of how cheap many goods  will get if we just had press a button and machines put them together!?

I remember a story in my economic history class about a peasant that was executed for inventing some sort of weaving machine. His crime? Destroying the job market for clothing makers.

I don’t know how true this story is but it conveys an important message.

 many of us value work more than we value actual economic progression

How many peasants lost their jobs to sewing machines? How many wagon makers lost their livelyhood as cars became popular? How many switchboard operators lost their jobs as telephones became more advanced? How many factory workers lost their jobs to machines?

Would anyone argue that life was better back in the 1800s than it is today? Technology is only going to get better and keep replacing jobs.

How many coal miners will lose their job when we can get coal with robots? Or if solar power or nuclear power become efficient enough to cover all power usage in the world? What about when we no longer need pilots to fly planes?

My economic teacher made this point:

200 years from now, an impoverished man is going to wake up in his 2,000 square foot home, grab a cup of coffee from his coffee maker, turn on his 100” tv and watch the news and start getting mad cause he sees that robots are going to take his current job as an accountant. He throws his remote at the wall, goes outside and gets in his solar power car and begin his 30 minute drive to his job, all the while angrily shaking his fist to the sky cause he can’t afford the flying cars because the economy is trash and doesn’t allow people in his situation to succeed. And on top of that, a robot is about to take his job so he is ganna have to down scale to a 1,000 sq ft house and maybe only a 60” TV

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Fether said:

many of us value work more than we value actual economic progression

This is really at the crux of the difference between various economic systems.  What is it the economic system rewards the most?

Capitalism:  The end product.  How many?  What quality?  What cost?

Socialism:  Safety regardless of what standard of safety is defined or undefined or what the cost will be to get there.

Communism: Work, regardless of cost, productivity, safety, method, or quality.

Look at those goals and we see that there is this underlying good value system at work.  But only one is self-sustaining.

[mikbone]

Hopefully we can do away with monotonous mind numbing jobs and replace them with jobs that require craftsmanship and decision making processes.