Tariffs?

[The Folk Prophet]

6 hours ago, Carborendum said:

I disagree.  I didn't mention it because I don't think that tariffs would be an effective means of combating the issue.

And where international intellectual properties are concerned, I don't know if there is a workable solution.

Well...I'm no expert...but.... it seems to me that if tariffs cause the Chinese knockoff to cost as much as the authentic device, that no one's going to buy the Chinese knockoff. To be fair...yeah...doesn't solve the world market, just the US one. Unless the other large states where the Chinese knockoffs sell also tariff China in the same way. But...still. If I had a product that I was trying to sell and everyone was buying a cheap Chinese stolen IP version of it instead of mine, I'd appreciate the tariff on it, even if it only helped American sales.

Edit: moreover, it's one of the reasons stated by the Trump admin, etc. And so it should be included in a basic explanation of what's going on whether you think it'll work or not.

Edited April 8 by The Folk Prophet

[Traveler]

I find it off that those that criticize Trump’s tariffs, especially claiming that Trump’s tariffs are a detriment to both the world and US economy – do not seem to care (or concerned) about the tariffs that are utilized by other countries.  Especially those tariffs on US goods and services. 

I disagree with Trump that in all cases, tariffs should be reciprocal.  I am more of the mind, especially in politics, that as good and fair as anything can be, there will always be some exceptions.

In my youth I read a book titled, “The Ugly American”.  I do not remember all the details, but I recall that it was very critical of Americans thinking that the rest of the world thinks as we do.  In essence that anyone that has a different view of politics, economy and trade from us – does not understand that our thinking is vastly superior.  And that everyone appreciates our gifts, despite our arrogance in our manor of giving.

 

The Traveler

[LDSGator]

12 minutes ago, Traveler said:

but I recall that it was very critical of Americans thinking that the rest of the world thinks as we do

Of course they don’t, that’s what makes America special, and I say that with the greatest love for my country. 

[NeuroTypical]

This TikTok kid with the blue hair is worth his weight in gold in historical analysis.  This is one of the first things that has made sense to me. 

 

 

[mirkwood]

On 4/7/2025 at 4:32 PM, JohnsonJones said:

 

They seem to think approximately 1 million members of gangs exist in the US. 

 

 

 

lol...still not outnumbered.

 

 

[Carborendum]

14 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

This TikTok kid with the blue hair is worth his weight in gold in historical analysis.  This is one of the first things that has made sense to me. 

That is only one part of what I was referring to when I said:

On 4/7/2025 at 10:16 AM, Carborendum said:

It's more than that.  There is a reason Trump is "playing" with tariffs.  And it will cause the entire world economy to go up and down quite a bit throughout this year.

Everything must be perfectly executed for it to work.  Otherwise, Trump is going to destroy the world economy.  And the activist judges are doing everything in their power to make sure things are NOT executed perfectly.

It is a roll of the dice. 

This is a dangerous game that Trump is playing.  I'd say that if anyone can do it, it would be him.  The problem is that he's basically taking on the entire world, including Americans who want to thwart his agenda.  With all that working against him, I don't know if anyone can do it right.

If he misses the mark, then it may or may not be any worse than what would have happened with another four years of Biden.  If he does it right, then he's every bit the political/economic genius he thinks himself to be... and that many MAGA supporters hope him to be.

I hope he does it right.  Otherwise, start praying that the Second Coming happens soon, because it will be one MEGA-MAGA-disaster.

Edited April 9 by Carborendum

[JohnsonJones]

49 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

That is only one part of what I was referring to when I said:

This is a dangerous game that Trump is playing.  I'd say that if anyone can do it, it would be him.  The problem is that he's basically taking on the entire world, including Americans who want to thwart his agenda.  With all that working against him, I don't know if anyone can do it right.

If he misses the mark, then it may or may not be any worse than what would have happened with another four years of Biden.  If he does it right, then he's every bit the political/economic genius he thinks himself to be... and that many MAGA supporters hope him to be.

I hope he does it right.  Otherwise, start praying that the Second Coming happens soon, because it will be one MEGA-MAGA-disaster.

I'm already praying that the Second Coming will happen soon, but I think with my failing health, I probably will not be around to see it.

However, the important thing is that it doesn't matter in that way, when the Second Coming is, the Second Coming for each man is upon his death when he goes to meet his maker.  I only hope he is merciful to me when that time comes. 

[NeuroTypical]

2 hours ago, JohnsonJones said:

I'm already praying that the Second Coming will happen soon, but I think with my failing health, I probably will not be around to see it.

If you get there before I do, please put in a good word for me.  Plenty of us sticking around could use a bit of help.

[Carborendum]

20 hours ago, The Folk Prophet said:

Well...I'm no expert...but.... it seems to me that if tariffs cause the Chinese knockoff to cost as much as the authentic device, that no one's going to buy the Chinese knockoff. To be fair...yeah...doesn't solve the world market, just the US one. Unless the other large states where the Chinese knockoffs sell also tariff China in the same way. But...still. If I had a product that I was trying to sell and everyone was buying a cheap Chinese stolen IP version of it instead of mine, I'd appreciate the tariff on it, even if it only helped American sales.

Ok. Good point.  When you said "intellectual property" I was thinking of "intangibles" (like software, audio/video, trade secrets, etc.).  I still don't see a way to penalize that without a level of oversight that would be difficult to apply without serious civil rights infringements.

But if they are using the design of a patented physical product and are reproducing them without credit/payment to the original designer, that becomes a tangible object which tariffs can effectively penalize.

Funny Aside: For many years Korean auto manufacturers didn't do much innovation at all.  They took an older model Toyota and/or Honda and cannibalized it for technology and design ideas to produce KIA and Hyundai vehicles.

Over the years, they did figure out some things on their own when some of the secrets were not easily discernible through taking other cars apart.  And they do have some decent engineers.

But for some reason Japan has not charged Korea for patent infringement or any other intellectual property claim (AFAIK).

Edited April 9 by Carborendum

[Phoenix_person]

1 hour ago, Carborendum said:

Funny Aside: For many years Korean auto manufacturers didn't do much innovation at all.  They took an older model Toyota and/or Honda and cannibalized it for technology and design ideas to produce KIA and Hyundai vehicles.

Over the years, they did figure out some things on their own when some of the secrets were not easily discernible through taking other cars apart.  And they do have some decent engineers.

But for some reason Japan has not charged Korea for patent infringement or any other intellectual property claim (AFAIK).

The guitar industry is the same way, but they DO sue. Fender and Gibson have been suing each other for decades, and they'll both sue anyone whose Strat or Les Paul clone gets a little too popular (with mixed results; PRS had to stop making their LP-style single-cut for a year, but then won an appeal). You hear "pre-lawsuit" quite a bit when talking about vintage guitars.

[NeuroTypical]

I work in the high tech industry where I walk past an inspiring wall of patents on my way to my desk.  We design chips, and that means you have to build a special thing for a million bucks that makes the chips, and the first time you try it, it fails, and you toss the million dollar thing in the trash and start again with a new one.   Sometimes 2-3 times.

We have competitors that pretty much all of their R&D spend consists of buying one of our things and trying to reverse-engineer it into something that probably doesn't work as well, but is way cheaper.  Our proprietary stuff is bleeding edge fastest and bestest, but whatever got invented 5 years ago is somewhere between 20-50% as good and you can get them cheaply.   

Someone occasionally comes home from a visit to china with one of our products, except it isn't one of ours.  They tend to look the same on the outside, same name, but the serial number will either be stolen or fake.  On the inside it's like someone took a few boxes out of a Radio Shak dumpster and shook it around in the box until the pieces all fit.  

Anything that makes it harder for countries like China to do stuff like this, will absolutely help us sell more of our things.  Because our customers won't be getting their stuff from wish.com and then getting mad at us when it doesn't work right.

[Carborendum]

I just looked for some details about Hyundai.  Apparently, the accusations of reverse engineering are overblown.  As far as is publicly known, there is no evidence that they reverse engineered Japanese automobiles to the point where it is considered patent infringement.

They are only guilty of the same practices that most other manufacturers do.  They obtain competitors' products to see what properties they want to meet or exceed.  Then they figure out a way to do it in their own way.  Sometimes it is by a different route.  Sometimes a very similar route.  But so far, the industry seems to agree that no patent infringement has happened.

So, sorry to have spread rumors of my ancestral homeland.  

[Carborendum]

The Chinese Yuan has just dropped to a 19 month low.

BTW, we will be noticing a little bit of a bumpy ride for the next few weeks to months.  But it isn't "necessarily" going to mean the end of the world.

Trump is tanking the stock market and foreign trade for a reason.   But he has a plan to get it back up again.

It's basically the biggest version of "chicken" ever played.  Trump has his foot to the floor and he isn't blinking.  What others don't realize is that he has a plan to jump the canyon.

Yes, it's crazy.  Yes, he could be wrong about all of this.  But if he's right...

Nothing we paeans can do but sit back and watch the show.

Edited April 9 by Carborendum

[Carborendum]

To be clear, the Chinese Yuan is in a LOT more trouble than their central bank would lead us to believe.  China pegs their currency to the dollar.  And they had to admit a small decline because of the tariff war.  Hence the 19 month low (which, frankly, isn't so much).

What is worse, however, is that the foreign currency exchange market is showing a MUCH more drastic drop in just the past couple of days.  It may as well have gone to zero.

[NeuroTypical]

That comment is SOOOO 5 hours ago. 

 

5 hours ago, Carborendum said:

But he has a plan to get it back up again.

Yep, you called it.   👍

Edited April 10 by NeuroTypical

[Carborendum]

9 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

That comment is SOOOO 5 hours ago. 

 

Yep, you called it.   👍

LoL.  Not what I was talking about.

It will continue to go down for a few more weeks.  But...

[Carborendum]

On 4/9/2025 at 6:59 AM, Carborendum said:

This is a dangerous game that Trump is playing.  I'd say that if anyone can do it, it would be him.  The problem is that he's basically taking on the entire world, including Americans who want to thwart his agenda.  With all that working against him, I don't know if anyone can do it right.

If he misses the mark, then it may or may not be any worse than what would have happened with another four years of Biden.  If he does it right, then he's every bit the political/economic genius he thinks himself to be... and that many MAGA supporters hope him to be.

I hope he does it right.  Otherwise, start praying that the Second Coming happens soon, because it will be one MEGA-MAGA-disaster.

Well, this was apparently an accurate assessment.  Here's what Thomas Sowell had to say.

Sowell is, of course, is not a proponent of tariffs.  And he was quite wary of the potential trade wars that Trump was seemingly getting into.  But he explains just how Trump threaded the eye of the needle.  And he seems confident that this boon we're seeing is not just a temporary blip in the economy.  He has hopes that it may be long term.

[NeuroTypical]

9 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Here's what Thomas Sowell had to say.

Um, @Carborendum?  This is a fake.  It uses random video from multiple sources coupled with an AI-generated Thomas Sowell voice, and an AI-generated script.

 

I have to admit, I was a full 7 minutes through the video before I got suspicious enough to look deeper.

This is an excellent warning to everyone in the human race: Be automatically wary of everything you see online.  Especially stuff from people you like, saying things you'd think they would say.

Edited yesterday at 01:47 PM by NeuroTypical

[LDSGator]

2 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Um, @Carborendum?  This is a fake.  It uses random video from multiple sources coupled with an AI-generated Thomas Sowell voice, and an AI-generated script.

 

I have to admit, I was a full 7 minutes through the video before I got suspicious enough to look deeper.

This is an excellent warning to everyone in the human race: Be automatically wary of everything you see online.  Especially stuff from people you like, saying things you'd think they would say.

To be fair to @Carborendum, I’ve seen MAGA “conservatives” embrace tariffs-which go against basic (very basic) free market economics. So if someone said that Sowell switched too, that’s understandable.   

[Carborendum]

6 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Um, @Carborendum?  This is a fake.  It uses random video from multiple sources coupled with an AI-generated Thomas Sowell voice, and an AI-generated script.

FIrst, I concur... the "headline" of Sowell changing his mind was click bait.  He did not "change his mind."  He simply found that Trump was walking the tightrope (which he described earlier) that few can actually do.

Second, while it is "stitched together", it is not "fake."  There is a difference between "deceptive editing" and "summarizing" or "collecting highlights."

The parts which show him visually speaking the same words which we hear are real.  The portion of him condemning the tariffs is real.  It was a part of an interview with the Hoover Institution (start at 46:30). 

There are "some portions" that are AI generated.  Look at the upper left corner of the screen.  There is a notification in the upper left where it is AI generated. And you'll find that a very small portion was AI generated.  The remainder of the words were actually spoken by Sowell.

Yes, of course many of the statements came from multiple sources.  This was clearly not a single interview or broadcast.  But each individual statement reflects real principles that Sowell really believes.

Quote

Economics is ultimately about systemic results, not personal intentions or individual acts.

-- Basic Economics p 843

Economics is not about intentions or ideologies.  It is about outcomes, incentives, and the hard realities about how people respond to them.

-- Video

I've read enough of his works and listened to enough of his interviews to say: I'd be willing to bet that if he didn't say it, he said something that could easily be paraphrased into what we heard in the AI generated content.

So, the rating on the fact-o-meter on whether that video was fake would be "partly, but not really."

 

1. He wasn't actually saying that tariffs always bad.  You have to listen carefully to what he was actually condemning.  

Quote

• Insomuch as he's using the tariffs to get various strategic things settled, and he's satisfied with that... But if he's going to set off a world-wide trade war, that has a devastating effect.
• The constant changing of the rules is bad... (then he adds a disclaimer) If this is just a series of short run ploys to achieve objectives limited in time, fine, maybe.

Things got settled in a few months time.  That seems to be "short term" to me.  And I, of course, agree with Sowell -- short term, maybe.  It seemed to work.

The "constant changing of the rules" was a couple of months which were really just negotiation tactics.  They were never meant to be long term.

2. Sowell actually said the following:

Quote

I've been critical of tariffs, still am in many respects because history has shown that they can be a blunt instrument, often doing more harm than good...

The truth lies in the details, not in the headlines or slogans...*

The risk is real...

But here's where the story diverges from the script I feared. Trump didn't use tariffs as an end of themselves... Instead, he weilded them as a lever -- temporary, targeted, and strategic.

Quote

 * Economic events often make headlines in the newspapers or "breaking news" on television.  yet it is not always clear from these particular events, much less what future consequences can be expected.

   -- Basic Economics p 14

These words were spoken by Sowell, from different sources.  But even stitched together, they are in line with his economic school of thought.

I am not aware that he has said anything about a low rate (10%) across the board reciprocal tariffs (good or bad) when the entire world is dead set on tariffs to begin with.

6 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

This is an excellent warning to everyone in the human race: Be automatically wary of everything you see online.  Especially stuff from people you like, saying things you'd think they would say.

I'm well aware of it.  But all the parts that mattered were real.  And I was "taken in" because

1. I'm familiar with who Sowell is and his writings.  I know where he's coming from.  I am familiar enough that I can sense when I'm hearing something that he wouldn't say.

2. Even the AI generated portions (which were minimal) were also in line with his economic theories.

3. AI still doesn't quite have vocalizations right.  I can spot it a mile away.  And only a few sentences in this entire video were AI generated.  They were just cut/paste (and I did spot most of the cut paste).  Until the technology improves, I'd have to be mostly asleep to believe an AI voice for more than one sentence.

Edited yesterday at 07:54 PM by Carborendum

[mordorbund]

AI Sowell can justify tariffs all he wants, but he’s just going to sound ignorant until he addresses Internet kittens.