North Korea, real threats, or just more posturing?

[Wordnerd]

N. Korea says it has scrapped armistice that ended Korean War - The Washington Post

So there is plenty of different viewpoints out there, but it seems that American news outlets are leaning towards posturing, and non American ones are taking the threats more seriously. (based on my completely unscientific skimming through various online articles and opinion pieces) An interesting point I wasn't aware of was that the US has command of South Korea's military during wars, and isn't due to hand it back until 2015. So if North Korea attacks South Korea, the US is involved automatically. Even if North Korea doesn't have the capability to launch a preemptive nuclear strike on the US, like they are threatening, things could still get really complicated really quick. I don't see what North Korea has to gain by following through on these threats, to my mind the US response would be to destroy them, mind you China's presence probably complicates things. Anyone else have any thoughts?

[Anddenex]

I, personally, would take any nuclear threat as a real threat.

In some cases, depending on the level of the threat and the possibility their threat is able to blossom into fruition -- I would take is more seriously.

If the threat is not idle, then is it plausible, right?, for us to take measures and disarm North Korea. For example, a human enters your home with a pistol waving a gun and threatening to shoot your whole family. What would happen to the individual whether the threat is real or just posturing?

Either way, criminal charges would be brought against the individual. These types of threats create discord, and the discord should be dealt with. My personal thoughts.

[pam]

Personally...No. Korea scares me. Dennis Rodman scared me and now he's besties with the President of No. Korea.

[NeuroTypical]

N. Korea makes gains by acting crazy. It's a geopolitical game to force the world to pretend NK has a better hand than it actually does.

[prisonchaplain]

One of my Korean friends suggested that we could take N. Korea's threats seriously when the S. Koreans do. We will know this when there is a run on U.S. dollars, and the Korean won devalues dramatically. Thus far there's been no activity in that direction.

[Guest]

Dennis Rodman scared me and now he's besties with the President of No. Korea.

Wait, what?

[annewandering]

I am just grateful my daughter flew home this last week to Texas and isnt going back there. Good timing in my opinion.

The surprising thing to me is that with their new leader who had every indication of being more sane that his dad, N. Korea isnt following a more rational public image.

Makes me wonder if there isnt a power struggle and he is losing.

[NightSG]

If the threat is not idle, then is it plausible, right?, for us to take measures and disarm North Korea. For example, a human enters your home with a pistol waving a gun and threatening to shoot your whole family. What would happen to the individual whether the threat is real or just posturing?

Can I find out in the time it takes to smoothly but firmly press the trigger of my rifle? If not, it's going to be irrelevant a couple of milliseconds later. When someone has a gun out and is threatening to use it, assuming it's a bluff is a quick way to get innocent people killed. NK has been waving the gun for decades.

IMO, the most effective way to deal with a posturing bully is to send the daintiest, least threatening girl you can find to pound the snot out of him in front of everybody. Thus, I propose we lob the French into NK and see what happens.

[HoosierGuy]

I would not take it serious. I do think if more threats come then the U.S. should consider taking "The Leader" out with some drones and missiles. Of course there is China to think about too so maybe not.

[Guest]

Next HG is going to tell us what a wonderful country N. Korea is and how they're doing everything better than us.

[bytebear]

It's posturing, but it's posturing by a nut job. That's dangerous.

[Guest]

I'm not sure if evil or crazy is scarier.

[annewandering]

Evil has no reason to not be logical. Crazy, you never know if there is any logic at all. If theres no logic how do you deal with them?

[Vort]

I'm not sure if evil or crazy is scarier.

In many cases, I'm not sure there is any difference.

[annewandering]

If they are really crazy and not driven crazy by their evilness then crazy doesnt have to be repented of and evil does so yes there is a huge difference.

[NeuroTypical]

Excellent, brilliant analysis from the folks at Stratfor:

Considering a Departure in North Korea's Strategy

On Jan. 29, I wrote a piece that described North Korea's strategy as a combination of ferocious, weak and crazy. In the weeks since then, three events have exemplified each facet of that strategy. Pyongyang showed its ferocity Feb. 12, when it detonated a nuclear device underground. The country's only significant ally, China, voted against Pyongyang in the U.N. Security Council on March 7, demonstrating North Korea's weakness. Finally, Pyongyang announced it would suspend the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953, implying that that war would resume and that U.S. cities would be turned into "seas of fire." To me, that fulfills the crazy element.

My argument was that the three tenets -- ferocity, weakness and insanity -- form a coherent strategy.

...

Indeed, resuming the Korean War probably is not something that anyone really wants. But because there are some analysts who think that such a resumption is plausible, I think it is worth considering the possibility that Pyongyang does want to restart the war. It is always worth examining an analysis based on the assumption that a given framework will not hold. For the record, I think the framework will hold, but I am simply examining the following hypothetical: This time, North Korea is serious.

[MarginOfError]

IMO, the most effective way to deal with a posturing bully is to send the daintiest, least threatening girl you can find to pound the snot out of him in front of everybody. Thus, I propose we lob the French into NK and see what happens.

The French would get whooped. But that alone is reason enough to do it.

[Just_A_Guy]

[With apologies to Gary Larson]

On the other hand, what if North Korea started a war, and nobody came?

[Vort]

The French would get whooped. But that alone is reason enough to do it.

Har de har har! What a gas! People are just so, so clever!

The French have produced among the greatest military leaders and military bodies in the history of the planet, as well as among the greatest mathematicians, physicists, statesmen, actors, athletes -- pretty much every human endeavor. French-derived principles of freedom and government undergird American society. The Statue of Liberty was a gift from France in celebration of this common belief in and goal of freedom. Any country in the world would feel privileged to have such a proud heritage.

I am no great fan of modern French politics or society, nor do I hold any illusions that France historically has been an unblinking beacon of wisdom to the world. But the modern American penchant to denigrate France and portray the French as spineless cowards and inept warriors is absurd, and not in an amusing way. It says far more about the speakers than it does about the French. I am embarrassed by it. As an American, I'm plenty happy to criticize France for its boneheaded foreign policy and duplicitious actions abroad and at home, without descending to mean-spirited and thoroughly stupid name-calling about supposed military ineptness -- a claim that no one who knows even a modicum of European history would say.

[Dravin]

[With apologies to Gary Larson]

On the other hand, what if North Korea started a war, and nobody came?

If they manage to strike at Seoul then I suspect invitations will be answered, particularly if they do so with WMDs.

[gree0232]

I think there may be some angles that are not well known on Korea.

#1 - Militarily, North Korea is not exactly strong ... they do however have a very large Army, and that, unfortunately, takes time to reduce. Any resulting fight would be a bit like a sprinter in a marathon, but they do have a large and well trained force of commandos, in addition to oodles of infantry in some very rugged terrain. Few doubt the end result, bit a fight would still be a fight, and given the population density of Korea ... a lot of innocent people would wind up hurt.

#2 - There has been a pattern to North Korea that has lasted years. They threaten and posture, we (collectively as the rest) sit down and talk, and then North Korea takes its side of the bargain and fails to deliver on the promises its made - while telling their people that the concession rested in the process are proof positive of their 'strength'.

Having rewarded the bully, we should perhaps not be surprised that bully is again acting out.

And make no excuses, at least one key leader, in order to maintain discipline in the ranks, brought senior military officials in for a meeting to listen to their concerns ... and instead had them taken into custody, lined up ... and run over by a tank.

Its not likely tat reasoning with people is likely to produce anything of good result. Ignoring them certainly seems to have produced a great deal of rhetoric.

#3 - The real danger here, in this current situation, is not North Korea, its South Korea. We should remember that South Korea has shown incredibly levels of restraint even as North Korea has fired artillery into South Korea, sunk a South Korean Naval Vessel, and routinely sends commando forces South, all while firing ballistic missiles and detonating nuclear weapons under a constant drone of threats.

South Korea, if we are to believe their new President, has had enough. Even as North Korea ratchets up the screaming, the South Korean President has stated publicly that any further antics will 'result in a response'.

Now given that among the councilmen of Kim Jung Un are those who are willing to run over critics with tanks ... what happens when North Korea again acts out? And South Korea responds? And the situation escalates?

Unfortunately, the bully is at a cross roads. We are unlikely to renew diplomatic accords with a Nation and leadership cabal that has proven distinctly untrustworthy. What is the point? Its effectively extortion, wherein we 'pretend' we have an agreement that all sides know North Korea will not follow, and failure to provide our side in honor gives the bully the excuse to be a victim and act even worse, while compliance with honor leaves the bully with his ill gotten gains. A no win situation there.

Ergo, North Korea threatens even louder. Only know, like a may a bully before them, the neighborhood has grown quite weary of the antics ... and we are at a point where the bully either backs up his threats and backs down.

It would be wrong to state that North Korea is beyond rational thought, and that they are unaware of the risks they are running or the natural end state of large scale military action. Nevertheless, when the issue is about retention or expansion of power there is certainty only that those engaged in the game of power will push the situation to its absolute limits.

Given the situation, there may very well be a miscalculation.

U.S., South Korea Sign Military Contingency Plan - WSJ.com

It is exactly that knowledge that drove the signing of this pact, ensuring that North Korea's leaders engaged in high stakes gamble understand that responses to likely military actions are in place ... resources ... rehearsed ... and ready to go.

I personally believe that North Korea will back down, but it may very well be at a price paid by China to keep them quiet ... and allow the bullies within the ranks to claim 'victory'.

It'll keep them quiet for a time, but only a time.

[Traveler]

The key to North Korea does is China.

The Traveler

[BadWolf]

North Korea has been serious for a loooooong time.

War "should" have happened at least 50 times by now... Its only the concentrated efforts of half the worlds intelligence, security service, and diplomatic corps that have kept us (not just the US, but a LOT of countries) from true attacks. City leveling attacks. Pretty much any time NK is in the news (missile testing, sudden outbreaks of "dead" infections, etc.) you can get down on your knees & thank those men & women we'll never know for their insane efforts to keep a lit powderkeg from blowing up. CIA, 6, DPSD, NKVD, Vatican, CSIS, ASIS, heck everyone on the pacific rim, all their allies, & half of Asia ... And heaven only knows. Multinationals, the AP, "private security"/mercenaries, NGOs, individuals, defectors... Hundreds, if not thousands of people working to keep NKorea contained.

North Korea is scary, because they ARE serious.

<grin> I don't worry, though. Because its one of those things that I can do absolutely nothing about.

Except to pray for those who can and do... Whenever I think of them.

Godspeed & thank you.

From the bottom of my heart, and all of me, for the life I and my family have been able to lead, because of every crisis and disaster you have prevented that I'll never know about.

[Praetorian_Brow]

North Korea and China is what Afghanistan is to Pakistan.

I can't say that I am fond of your perspective Vort, but I do credit you for knowing some history. Most Americans are quick to forget that they have only had world domination for about 60 years, which is nothing compared with military and world history. The rust of America's might is really showing through the paint.

North Korea is biding its time, like a child to a big brother that is about to tag along as the present bully gets some competition.

[Saldrin]

Personally...No. Korea scares me. Dennis Rodman scared me and now he's besties with the President of No. Korea.

The Worm should scare anyone for any reason...