Trump Can't Win

[Guest MormonGator]

17 minutes ago, Just_A_Guy said:

So, I re-read my twelfth amendment; and it looks like the House would have to vote between the top three electoral vote-getters.  Even if Johnson gets his home state of New Mexico and McMullin gets Utah--Utah has more electoral votes than New Mexico, so Johnson's out and the House has to pick between Clinton, Trump and McMullin.  Each state delegation votes as one.  The Republicans currently have a majority in the house delegations of 35 states; the Dems, 15. 

If the election goes to the House, Hillary has no path for victory even if the Republican delegation split nearly 50/50 between Trump and McMullin--she would have a lock on 15 votes, to at least 18 for Trump or McMullin.  Realizing this, the Dems' state delegations may decide to at least keep Trump out of the White House by backing McMullin.  Fifteen Dem delegations, plus an anti-Trump revolt by substantial minority of eleven Republican delegations, could put McMullin over the top in the House.

Do not place your money on this scenario happening. 

Edited October 19, 2016 by MormonGator

[james12]

Yea, I was going to vote for Johnson but I like a couple of things about voting for McMullin. For one, I live in Utah and even if he loses it would be nice to see McMullin take our state instead of Trump or Hilary. It would be talked about for years and we will have actually made some impact on the race. The other reason is what JAG just said above. There is a slim chance  and at least it is a vote more in keeping with my principles. 

At this stage I'm going to see how it plays out before placing my vote but it will be for Johnson or McMullin. 

[Just_A_Guy]

1 hour ago, MormonGator said:

Do not place your money on this scenario happening. 

Oh, I'm not.  But I'm not convinced it's going to be the Hillary landslide some have predicted.  I think she'll do well--very well--but I also think the popular vote gap between Trump and Hillary will narrow; and I think Trump will hold most of the states RealClearPolitics is currently painting deep red (except that if McMullin gains steam in Utah, that might trigger a preference cascade throughout the Mountain West--but I doubt it). 

[bytebear]

I'm just hoping most Democrats stay home.  They seem to have lost much of their base.  Millennials and African Americans aren't thrilled with Hillary, and may just sit this one out.

[Guest]

Another nail in the coffin of hope.  Texas polls are in.  Hillary and Donald are only 1 point apart.  And the trend is getting worse.  If Hillary wins Texas there is no hope for a House vote.

I made a bet with a co-worker about two weeks ago that she was going to win Texas.  Yesterday, he told me that he was now worried he is going to lose that bet.

[Guest]

https://www.uml.edu/News/press-releases/2016/odyssey-poll-10182016.aspx

Quote

Nearly a quarter of Americans ages 18 to 35 would rather see a giant meteor strike the Earth than see either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump in the White House.

As we go through the numbers, only 12 percent would prefer to have either Hillary or Donald as President.  And the highest percentage was those who would prefer Obama have a lifetime appointment to the office (39%).

[unixknight]

18 hours ago, MormonGator said:

My conscience will bother me more if I stay home/vote third party thus allowing Hillary to win. Speaking for me only, I accept in politics that you can't always get what you want and in the adult world, sometimes you are stuck with two bad choices. Grown ups accept this and vote for the lesser evil. That's the logic side of me.

I know you didn't mean it this way, but I kinda wish you hadn't said that grownups accept this and vote for the lesser evil.  I'm not doing that and I'm pretty sure I'm a grownup.

(I admit, I'm a grownup that has Captain America and the Planet Express ship on my desk at work)

I completely understand the reasoning that says voting for Trump is the better of two awful choices.  My wife is doing the same.  For me, I reject the dichotomy that says that my vote MUST be for one of the two or somehow it paves the way for the other.  Like you I'm speaking only for myself here, but I firmly believe that adhering to that line of reasoning only strengthens the two party lock.  It's how they WANT us to think.  They WANT us to believe that they are the only two worth choosing from.  Otherwise why would they give us such awful options?  They're not at all worried about a third party. 

And the world would be a better place if they WERE worried about it.  That will never change as long as people go along with the "two and only two option" model.

[NeedleinA]

18 minutes ago, unixknight said:

Otherwise why would they give us such awful options?

USA Population: 323,995,528 (July 2016 est.) and these are the best two people as a nation we can produce? Elect Trump and if he choked on a chicken wing and we ended up with Pence for President, I could stomach that.

[Larry Cotrell]

13 hours ago, prisonchaplain said:

I get the rest, but not this.  Trump is pro-life, and has published a list of judges he would nominate to SCOTUS--all pro-life, to my understanding. 

" I believe it is a personal decision that should be left to the women and their doctors "

-Donald Trump

[anatess2]

22 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Does anyone really believe that Trump is going to win this election?  I'm having trouble buying that.  The bottom line is that Hillary is going to win.  

But what I'm left with now is the following options.

1) Vote for Hillary and have Hillary win.
2) Vote for Trump and have Hillary win.
3) Don't vote at all and have Hillary win.
4) Vote for another candidate and have Hillary win.

So, when people tell me that a vote for anyone other than Trump is actually a vote for Hillary seems like foolishness to me.  By that same logic, it appears that even a vote for Trump is a vote for Hillary.  I partially apologize to those here who have said that  -- especially one friend of mine in particular (a-hem).

All I can hope to do is to vote my conscience regardless of anything else because the electoral result will be the same -- Hillary wins.  But I can at least have some peace in knowing that I voted my conscience.

You are a by-product of mass media and has fallen into the perception game of politics that the Democrats have mastered in their collusion with the press.  This is why Republicans have a hard time winning.  They have no answer to a biased press.  Trump is the ONLY one that can break the press attacks.  But Republicans continue to pile on him.  Name a single Democrat who makes a peep about the controversies of their candidate during an election.  Joe Liebermann is the only one I can think off and he's not even a real Democrat.  This is because Democrats VOTE THEIR CONSCIENCE THROUGH POLICIES.

There is only one way Trump can win.  And that is if enough Republicans vote for him.

It is interesting that "Vote your Conscience" in the Republican Party is so short-sighted that it doesn't take into account - AT ALL - what is ACTIONABLE in government.  Rather they simply vote on which candidate "SEEMS" like a good person (the press can dig up and has dug up dirt on any Republican running) who can't push back on a run-away SCOTUS or influence congress to protect religious liberty... they even manage to appoint a wishy-washy conservative that votes liberal more than conservative on all the moral issues of the land.

Every single president minus Bill Clinton in the past 50 years seems like good, upright, moral people... yet, society manages to fall into the gutter.  And to add insult to injury you get $20T in debt and rising and 95 million people collecting food stamps.  Put THAT in your conscience.  You, the American people, made that happen.

 

Edited October 19, 2016 by anatess2

[Guest MormonGator]

2 hours ago, unixknight said:

(I admit, I'm a grownup that has Captain America and the Planet Express ship on my desk at work)

 

I'm a grown up who just bought a Koosh ball and Silly Putty at Hobby Lobby this morning. 

[unixknight]

9 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

I'm a grown up who just bought a Koosh ball and Silly Putty at Hobby Lobby this morning. 

This is why we're friends.

[Guest]

47 minutes ago, anatess2 said:

You are a by-product of mass media and has fallen into the perception game of politics that the Democrats have mastered in their collusion with the press.

I'm a product of study of the facts, not the MSM propaganda.  It's not my fault that the two happen to coincide in this instance.

You, on the other hand, are a product of misplaced conspiracy  theories and unrealistic expectations based on emotion and desire more than reality and reason.

Don't throw mud if you aren't prepared to get some on yourself.

Edited October 19, 2016 by Guest

[Guest MormonGator]

18 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

I'm a product of study of the facts, not the MSM propaganda.

Trumpers have a hard time accepting facts that they don't agree with. It's like trying to tell a smoker that cigarettes don't cause cancer. 

[anatess2]

22 minutes ago, Carborendum said:

 

You, on the other hand, are a product of misplaced conspiracy  theories and unrealistic expectations based on emotion and desire more than reality and reason.

 

That's interesting.

Misplaced conspiracy theories... that is hilarious actually.

Here's your reality - the Philippines (for which my family serves in government) - is taking steps to distance itself from the US military and the US dollar and making nice to China even as China usurps Philippine territory in the South China Sea.  You can't find a stronger ally to the US than the Philippines.  Tell me again where any of my posts are lacking in reality and reason.

Edited October 19, 2016 by anatess2

[prisonchaplain]

3 hours ago, Larry Cotrell said:

" I believe it is a personal decision that should be left to the women and their doctors "

-Donald Trump

I'm not sure where/when this quote comes from, but Trump has posted his SCOTUS choices, vetted by Heritage Foundation and Federalist Society.  All are constructionists, and the list has pleased pro-life activists.  Mr. Pence has said a Trump administration might even be able to overturn Roe v. Wade.  Compared with Clinton's pro-abortion, pro-Planned Parenthood stands, and her statement that Christians must change their minds on this issue, I'd say, whatever Trump's faults are, this ain't one of them.

[Just_A_Guy]

Behold, another by-product of mass media that has fallen into the perception game of politics that the Democrats have mastered in their collusion with the press:

Quote

D&C 98:

 8 I, the Lord God, make you free, therefore ye are free indeed; and the law also maketh you free.

 9 Nevertheless, when the wicked rule the people mourn.

 10 Wherefore, honest men and wise men should be sought for diligently, and good men and wise men ye should observe to uphold; otherwise whatsoever is less than these cometh of evil.

Who knew those dastardly dems managed to co-opt the scriptural canon of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints?  Apparently they even managed to travel 150 years back in time to carry through their evil plot.  Bow down before their awesome power!

But take heart, ye fellow saints!  We all know God really wants us to vote for narcissists, lechers, and thugs.  Like Trump.  Or like the Philippines' Duterte, where people on the President's naughty-list seem to be dropping dead in the streets at the rate of nearly a thousand a month. 

Edited October 19, 2016 by Just_A_Guy

[Guest]

1 hour ago, anatess2 said:

Here's your reality - the Philippines (for which my family serves in government) - is taking steps to distance itself from the US military and the US dollar and making nice to China even as China usurps Philippine territory in the South China Sea.  You can't find a stronger ally to the US than the Philippines.  Tell me again where any of my posts are lacking in reality and reason.

Here's your reality:  

Philipinos are vastly superior to Americans in all aspects. The Philippines knows all. Americans are misguided fools who can't tell the difference between their own best judgment based on faith and prayer as well as personal research vs. the mind-controlling liberal machine that is the MSM.

Bow down to the greater wisdom of the Philippines.  Witness their greatness and glory. For by small and simple things mighty miracles are wrought.

[Guest Godless]

3 hours ago, anatess2 said:

You are a by-product of mass media and has fallen into the perception game of politics that the Democrats have mastered in their collusion with the press.  This is why Republicans have a hard time winning.  They have no answer to a biased press.  But Republicans continue to pile on him.  Name a single Democrat who makes a peep about the controversies of their candidate during an election. Joe Liebermann is the only one I can think off and he's not even a real Democrat. This is because Democrats VOTE THEIR CONSCIENCE THROUGH POLICIES.

There is only one way Trump can win.  And that is if enough Republicans vote for him.

When most of the GOP seems ready to concede a general election to the Democrats, it may be time to reevaluate your candidate. Really really reevaluate. The level of abandonment we're seeing is absolutely unprecedented. They may be "establishment" Republicans, but even DC insiders normally aren't so quick to abandon the idealists in their ranks when said idealists are their best shot at the White House. This GOP mutiny is a glaring testament to the toxicity of the Trump campaign. 

 

Trump is the ONLY one that can break the press attacks.

Think for a moment about how terrifying that statement is. Just think about it. I'll wait.

 

3 hours ago, anatess2 said:

Every single president minus Bill Clinton in the past 50 years seems like good, upright, moral people... yet, society manages to fall into the gutter.  And to add insult to injury you get $20T in debt and rising and 95 million people collecting food stamps.  Put THAT in your conscience.  You, the American people, made that happen.

 

Um, the food stamp number is actually 43 million (a fact-checked number from Trump himself, no less), not 95 million, and that's down 9% from the peak of the great recession. (source)  And if you want to get technical, our massively corrupt and dishonest investment banking industry is largely responsible for the conditions that caused the spike in both the national debt and families on food stamps in the late part of GWB's presidency and the early part of Obama's. Heck, I'm not even sure that I'd blame Bush for that.  

[Guest MormonGator]

5 minutes ago, Godless said:

When most of the GOP seems ready to concede a general election to the Democrats, it may be time to reevaluate your candidate. Really really reevaluate. The level of abandonment we're seeing is absolutely unprecedented.

Exactly right. Hence why I think Trumpers are suffering from a psychological flaw of some kind. It doesn't make them stupid, but presented with this much evidence that your candidate is deeply flawed as a politician  (and I'm just talking about his failures as a politician. Not his failures as a man, businessman or husband) a reasonable person would jump ship and focus their energy on someone else. 

[unixknight]

8 hours ago, anatess2 said:

Here's your reality - the Philippines (for which my family serves in government) - is taking steps to distance itself from the US military and the US dollar and making nice to China even as China usurps Philippine territory in the South China Sea.  You can't find a stronger ally to the US than the Philippines.  Tell me again where any of my posts are lacking in reality and reason.

Wait... I'm confused.  In the first sentence you describe how the Philippines are distancing themselves from the U.S. and snuggling up to China, and in the second sentence you say the Philippines is the strongest ally the U.S. has.  I do not follow your reasoning.

Edited October 20, 2016 by unixknight

[unixknight]

5 hours ago, MormonGator said:

Exactly right. Hence why I think Trumpers are suffering from a psychological flaw of some kind. It doesn't make them stupid, but presented with this much evidence that your candidate is deeply flawed as a politician  (and I'm just talking about his failures as a politician. Not his failures as a man, businessman or husband) a reasonable person would jump ship and focus their energy on someone else. 

I think the issue is that Trump supporters are so horrified by Clinton (which is absolutely reasonable) that Trump seems much better by comparison (which he kind of is).  I think the disconnect is that we're talking about Conservatives, which by definition are people who believe in a higher morality and personal responsibility, and there's a cognitive dissonance between those values and the candidate they've attached themselves to.  So what do you do?  Acknowledge what kind of person he is and feel dirty for supporting him, or use whatever philosophical gymnastics it takes to minimize the bad in order to feel better about supporting him?

Look at people who have pledged to vote for Trump, and you'll find that every single one of them falls into one category or the other.

[Guest MormonGator]

18 minutes ago, unixknight said:

I think the issue is that Trump supporters are so horrified by Clinton (which is absolutely reasonable) that Trump seems much better by comparison (which he kind of is).  I think the disconnect is that we're talking about Conservatives, which by definition are people who believe in a higher morality and personal responsibility, and there's a cognitive dissonance between those values and the candidate they've attached themselves to.  So what do you do?  Acknowledge what kind of person he is and feel dirty for supporting him, or use whatever philosophical gymnastics it takes to minimize the bad in order to feel better about supporting him?

Look at people who have pledged to vote for Trump, and you'll find that every single one of them falls into one category or the other.

I understand completely what you are saying and totally agree, for sure. Trump IS better than Clinton.

[unixknight]

6 minutes ago, MormonGator said:

I understand completely what you are saying and totally agree, for sure. Trump IS better than Clinton.

The reason I agree with that statement is that Trump doesn't know the ins and outs of the beltway insiders.  That means he's not savvy on how to manipulate things.  Now, one of Trump's personal strengths is that he knows how to hire good people and delegate, so I'm sure he would choose a cabinet of people who will compensate for that.  Clinton, on the other hand, has tentacles all over the place and knows how to manipulate Washington.  She can do a LOT more damage and get away with it.

On the upside, I take comfort in knowing that whichever one wins, they'll certainly be a one-term President.

[Guest MormonGator]

12 minutes ago, unixknight said:

On the upside, I take comfort in knowing that whichever one wins, they'll certainly be a one-term President.

100% correct. Hopefully Clinton will be a one term president. Right leaning people (And I'm certainly one of them) need to start accepting that she is going to win now. It's over. 

The one good thing-the ONE good thing about this campaign is that it's brought third parties to the mainstream. No longer do we have to hear "Harry Browne? Who the heck is he?" (A man I have nothing but respect for, by the way). So Gary Johnson won't win in 2016. He won't win in 2020. Maybe in 2030 he has a better change though.