Russia-Ukraine conflict

[mikbone]

https://news.sky.com/video/vladimir-putin-takes-centre-stage-in-moscow-stadium-to-promote-holiday-for-crimea-anniversary-12250040

[Traveler]

On 3/15/2022 at 5:23 AM, MarginOfError said:

....

The last major contributor, and this probably has more weight than I'm giving it, is that most geopolitical strategy experts didn't really expect a full on invasion of Ukraine.  There was expectation that Luhansk and Donbass would get swallowed up, but strategically, it doesn't make sense to try to take all of Ukraine. The fact that Putin did so anyway indicates a less rational threat than was expected--a mad man with nukes. I've talked about this before, so I won't rehash, but this dimension is a pretty scary thing to be looking at.

I wonder if there is any correlation or connection with our liberal administration's fear to do much of anything concerning the violence in Ukraine and many residents of liberal cities that are afraid to become involved with violence in their own cities (watching and walking on doing nothing) that sometimes even support the violence implying the violence is just the result of the frustrated oppressed.  It is prophesized that in the Last-days that violence will fill the earth.   It may not be full - yet? - but is there a place one can go guaranteed safe from violence?

 

The Traveler 

[NeuroTypical]

Aahnold spitting’ facts:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/schwarzenegger-russia-ukraine-war-message/627100/

[Ironhold]

On 3/17/2022 at 3:07 PM, NeuroTypical said:

Wow - that's a pretty dang harsh demonization of an entire people.  I'm not sure it's the tiniest bit justified.  I'm more certain the traumatic memories of the siege of Leningrad (and others) have traveled through generations, and are a prime motivator for Russia to seek to expand into it's old buffer zones, as a calculated play to do whatever it takes to never have to lose another 20M casualties in a war.

Y'all know where St. Petersburg is, in relation to Ukraine?  How close Moscow is to NATO?  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

When Germany signed the treaty with Russia at the start of WWII, Russia decided this meant that they were free to invade Finland. 

While Finland wasn't able to hold out without foreign aid and was forced to surrender territory to Russia, the Finns did manage to inflict shocking casualties on the Russian military, the result of Russia going to war in winter with brightly-colored uniforms and using human wave tactics to overwhelm Finnish emplacements. 

When the war was over, Finland, like any civilized nation, returned all Russian soldiers taken prisoner during the conflict.

Those soldiers that the Russian authorities didn't execute on the spot were shuffled off to the gulags. 

Russian military doctrine, you see, is "death or glory". You either win, or you go home in a bag. Surrender is seen as nothing less than desertion, if not treason. So by surrendering instead of dying in battle, they were seen as criminals and traitors.

Between the casualties from the war and the returned soldiers who were killed by their own country, Russia lost so much in the way of military manpower that Germany tore up the treaty and ordered the invasion. 

Finland responded to the news by... becoming an Axis power, with many Finnish soldiers, such as Lauri Torni (the famous "Soldier of Three Armies") literally signing up for the German military in order to get revenge. 

Your average high school history textbook whistles past many graveyards, and this is one of them. 

[mirkwood]

7 hours ago, Traveler said:

 but is there a place one can go guaranteed safe from violence?

 

Not yet, but the prophecied time and place are coming.

[Carborendum]

On 3/18/2022 at 1:28 PM, NeuroTypical said:

Aahnold spitting’ facts:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/schwarzenegger-russia-ukraine-war-message/627100/

Is it worth pointing out that it isn't "the Ukrainians" that Putin is calling Nazis.  That is what he thinks of America.  This is nothing more than a proxy war on a scale that we've never seen before.

Edited March 19, 2022 by Carborendum

[NeuroTypical]

3 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Is it worth pointing out that it isn't "the Ukrainians" that Putin is calling Nazis.  That is what he thinks of America.  

What's your source on that?  I listened to some of Putin's big sabre-rattling speech, and he didn't say anything about American Nazis.  He was laughing at us and our problems identifying truth with our social media.  He was playing on some old WWII history where there was some collaboration in German occupied Ukraine.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichskommissariat_Ukraine

And Ukraine does (or did?) have a bit of a problem with some tiny numbers of Neo-Nazis.

 

None of this, of course, justifies Putin's actions.  But I really would like to know why you think Putin thinks America has something to do with Nazis.  

Edited March 19, 2022 by NeuroTypical

[Carborendum]

1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

What's your source on that?  I listened to some of Putin's big sabre-rattling speech, and he didn't say anything about American Nazis.  He was laughing at us and our problems identifying truth with our social media.  He was playing on some old WWII history where there was some collaboration in German occupied Ukraine.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichskommissariat_Ukraine

And Ukraine does (or did?) have a bit of a problem with some tiny numbers of Neo-Nazis.

 

None of this, of course, justifies Putin's actions.  But I really would like to know why you think Putin thinks America has something to do with Nazis.  

It has to do with the video I posted a few days ago.  Ever since Yeltsin, Russia's opinion has been that the continued expansion of NATO is akin to Hitler's continued expansion throughout Europe without a shot being fired.  Here is an article that touches on some similar issues:

https://www.historians.org/publications-and-directories/perspectives-on-history/may-2018/our-biggest-mistake-is-that-we-trusted-you-too-much-geopolitics-donald-trump-and-vladimir-putins-historical-memory

Reagan and Gobachev

• The Soviets and Americans were friends.
• They brokered a new world of superpowers wanting to help the world through an era of peace.
• The Soviets broke up the Warsaw Pact Nations and the Soviet Union would no longer exist.  Only Russia would remain as a superpower.
• For our part, we agreed that NATO would not expand any further.

Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Yeltsin:

• We added more nations to NATO and got closer and closer to the Russian Border.
• Yeltsin cried foul "Our mistake was trusting you too much.  Your mistake was taking advantage of that." (paraphrased).

Obama & Putin:

• "I'll have more flexibility after the election."
• Putin put it all out on the table for Obama.  Obama disbelieved him, assuming he must have been lying.  But he (Putin) wasn't ... for the most part.  Obama responded, but didn't really accept anything Putin had complained about.

Trump & Putin:

• Trump tried trusting Putin.  And he pulled US troops out of Ukraine.
• Putin wanted to trust Trump.  And he largely remained quiet.  Calculating.
• Both sides were double faced in that regard.

Biden...  Have you ever heard of a meatball?

Bottom line, everyone knows Ukraine simply isn't being run by Nazis.  But it is very easy for Putin (and most Russians) to believe that America is doing the very same thing as Hitler did... nation by nation.

To them, it doesn't matter if it is by treaty or by force of arms / economics.  We're the bully who broke our promise to the Russians.  That's all they know.

And, directly to your point:  No, Putin isn't making that exactly clear.  Many Russians do think he's talking about Ukraine.

Edited March 19, 2022 by Carborendum

[NeuroTypical]

Good article, and a fine summary of the history of the place, quite close to my understanding.  

Putin's 6 reasons he gave on Feb 23rd:
1- Re-integrate Ukraine into Russia
2- Protect the people in Donbas
3- De-militarize Ukraine
4- De-Nazify Ukraine
5- End Ukraine's secret nuclear weapons program
6- Prevent Ukraine from Joining NATO, to prevent an eventual invasion of Russia from NATO.

The original prediction was they'd take Kyiv in 2 days, and speculation the whole military operation would be over in 2 weeks.  It's now day 24.  The first phase of the war is over, and Putin can't be happy.

lol:

- Russian offensives have almost ground to a total halt theaterwide.
- They only control one city - Kherson.
- Their cool 67 km long convoy has been slowly shredded.
- Russian forces are digging trenches and redoubts, and in many places have lost the ability to be mobile.  
- Russian air force does not have air superiority anywhere but over Mariiupol.
- 4 days ago, Russia sent the best of their best - the 1st Guard Tank Army and regiments of Naval Infantry.  Hasn't made any difference yet.
- Russian tanks weren't designed for Ukrainian mud, leading to multiple fun videos on Twitter of Ukranian tractors towing captured tanks around.
- The Russian comms rely on 3g and 4g, which are the same cell towers they turn off when they take over an area.
- Basically, the only thing the Russian military can do right now (in the short term), is grind down Ukranian population centers by bombing civilians with artillery and rockets.

- Zelynsky is still president, running a fully functional government from Kyiv
- Ukrainian military is still fully functional, with no issues with secure communications.  They still have radar, air defenses, and assets to move around.

We're seeing an historic shift in warfare that will change the entire world: Drones combined with social intelligence have made armor almost obsolete.  The Ukrainian version of friggin' Tik Tok has changed the landscape of modern warfare permanently.
 

[Carborendum]

3 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Good article, and a fine summary of the history of the place, quite close to my understanding.  

Putin's 6 reasons he gave on Feb 23rd:
1- Re-integrate Ukraine into Russia
2- Protect the people in Donbas
3- De-militarize Ukraine
4- De-Nazify Ukraine
5- End Ukraine's secret nuclear weapons program
6- Prevent Ukraine from Joining NATO, to prevent an eventual invasion of Russia from NATO.

All items on your list (save #4) fit with my narrative as well.  And #4 has everyone confused.  It just plain doesn't make sense.  We can approach it from three perspectives

• Putin has become delusional (which is what the media and politicians would have you believe)
• He's just plain lying to try to get the Russian people behind him by telling the biggest whopper he could think of (which certainly hasn't worked out at all).
• He's saying something between the lines.

Since the first option requires that I trust the media and politicians above common sense, I'm just not quite ready to believe that... yet.

The second one would indicate that he's stupid.  He may be evil. He may be a bully.  He may be many other things.  But I doubt he's stupid.

That leaves me to consider the last option.  He's saying something between the lines.  Given the history I've outlined, I conclude that he must really be talking about the US that is only using Ukraine as a puppet government (in his eyes).  After all, their president is a simple comedian.  How could he have been duly elected by a free people.  The only thing worse would be electing an actor to be president of the US... 

Quote

The original prediction was they'd take Kyiv in 2 days, and speculation the whole military operation would be over in 2 weeks.  It's now day 24.  The first phase of the war is over, and Putin can't be happy.

lol:

- Russian offensives have almost ground to a total halt theaterwide.
- They only control one city - Kherson.
- Their cool 67 km long convoy has been slowly shredded.
- Russian forces are digging trenches and redoubts, and in many places have lost the ability to be mobile.  
- Russian air force does not have air superiority anywhere but over Mariiupol.
- 4 days ago, Russia sent the best of their best - the 1st Guard Tank Army and regiments of Naval Infantry.  Hasn't made any difference yet.
- Russian tanks weren't designed for Ukrainian mud, leading to multiple fun videos on Twitter of Ukranian tractors towing captured tanks around.
- The Russian comms rely on 3g and 4g, which are the same cell towers they turn off when they take over an area.
- Basically, the only thing the Russian military can do right now (in the short term), is grind down Ukranian population centers by bombing civilians with artillery and rockets.

- Zelynsky is still president, running a fully functional government from Kyiv
- Ukrainian military is still fully functional, with no issues with secure communications.  They still have radar, air defenses, and assets to move around.

We're seeing an historic shift in warfare that will change the entire world: Drones combined with social intelligence have made armor almost obsolete.  The Ukrainian version of friggin' Tik Tok has changed the landscape of modern warfare permanently.

Now that is quite impressive, isn't it?

After all this, the Finns may want to consider them blood brothers and apply their term Sisu to Ukrainians.

Edited March 21, 2022 by Carborendum

[Carborendum]

Apropos of nothing.

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Carborendum

[Vort]

3 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Apropos of nothing.

 

I'll say!

[Carborendum]

1 hour ago, Vort said:

I'll say!

The thing was that I saw a recent photo of Putin as he talked about oil and natural gas.  I noticed that, in that photo, he looked remarkably like another individual who was (up until recently) in the news here and there.  But after I made the post, I thought better of it, and realized it would seem like I was being overly cruel to the other party (which was not my intent). 

I just thought they looked a lot alike in their photos.

[NeuroTypical]

Latest Ukraine news, told by someone on the scene:

[Carborendum]

1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

Latest Ukraine news, told by someone on the scene:

Expertly done!  Who is this guy?  I'm not sure I buy that he is a native Ukrainian.  I find it difficult to believe someone did this whose first language is not English.

BTW, is it true that the Russians are missing a significantly high percentage of the time?  I hadn't heard.

Edited March 28, 2022 by Carborendum

[Ironhold]

3 hours ago, Carborendum said:

Expertly done!  Who is this guy?  I'm not sure I buy that he is a native Ukrainian.  I find it difficult to believe someone did this whose first language is not English.

BTW, is it true that the Russians are missing a significantly high percentage of the time?  I hadn't heard.

So far they've managed to destroy more museums (like a modern art museum and a museum of classic computer technology) than strategic targets. 

[Carborendum]

2 hours ago, Ironhold said:

So far they've managed to destroy more museums (like a modern art museum ...

I'm suddenly rooting for the Russians.

[Carborendum]

I dug him up.

https://twitter.com/AndrejNkv

He's a True Scotsman. (TM)

[Carborendum]

As with any significant global event, things are always more complex than any one explanation.

 

[NeuroTypical]

Heh- Ukraine has attacked Russia.  Lol!

https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdmfScCR/

[Traveler]

On 3/29/2022 at 7:55 AM, Carborendum said:

As with any significant global event, things are always more complex than any one explanation.

 

I do not think that this guy looking like (and acting like) a loose nut minus any bolts helps with creditability.   However I do appreciate his thinking process and I believe this particular video also fits quite well in the conspiracy thread. 

Some other thoughts about the war in Ukraine:

1. As it turns out there are Nazis in Ukraine and the most efficient fighting force - in eastern Ukraine war theater is a primary Nazi battalion that has been very effective against Russia.  The only argument I have heard that Nazis are not a force in Ukraine is that the president of Ukraine is Jewish.  As if the two possibilities cannot possibly exist.   

2.  As it turns out there are over 30 biolabs funded (at least in part - but I cannot determine by how much) by US tax dollars.   The argument against this is that the labs are not weaponizing pathogens.   I am troubled by this because I do not understand the difference between pathogen research and weaponizing pathogens.  When I was working for the Defense Department my primary focus was on "delivery systems".   The difference between nuclear and non-nuclear delivery system capabilities is basically propaganda.  In addition the point of a weaponized pathogen is if there is a known antidote.  Since I was not privy to pathogens I can talk about "rumors" and there were some very scary rumors when I was working for the Defense Department.  I remember one rumor that with a container about the size of a football half the population of the USA could be eradicated.  Interesting rumor - but I do remember that there was more concern over pathogens than nuclear.  I personally do not trust the CDC, NIH or Dr Fauci  There is not a country that has been more of a failure in this whole COVID pandemic than our government.  The Democrats say Trump's leadership was the worse in the world and Biden has has more deaths than Trump.

3. Ukraine has several rare earth elements and is currently the second largest producer in the world of those elements - which includes lithium and nickel which is necessary for what we call green energy.  If we are going to make a serious effort to establish a green new deal - we will need these elements and it is not a good idea to just let Russia and China control the world's access to these minerals.

4. While I was in the army I spent much of my time in military intelligence.  There are two issues about our involvement in the Ukraine war the worry me:

     First - if you want to win a war you provide those that are fighting (front lines) with the logistics (weapons) that they say they need.

     Second - you do not want someone in charge that cannot interoperate the intelligence gathered.  Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, is the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.  He is the one that said that the Taliban in Afghanistan would not be able to take over Afghanistan for months after we withdrew our military.  He is also the one that said that Ukraine would fall within 72 hours after Russia invaded.  With such a record of bad responses to military intelligence - why is he still the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?

5. For all the problems that we said the sanctions would be - the reality is that the Russian rubble is currently stronger than it was when this year began and the USA economy is suffering its worst inflation in 40 years.  Is there anyone that still believes that the sanctions are hurting Russia worse than what our economic policies are hurting our economy?

 

The Traveler

[Ironhold]

17 hours ago, Traveler said:

4. While I was in the army I spent much of my time in military intelligence.  There are two issues about our involvement in the Ukraine war the worry me:

     First - if you want to win a war you provide those that are fighting (front lines) with the logistics (weapons) that they say they need.

     Second - you do not want someone in charge that cannot interoperate the intelligence gathered.  Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, is the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.  He is the one that said that the Taliban in Afghanistan would not be able to take over Afghanistan for months after we withdrew our military.  He is also the one that said that Ukraine would fall within 72 hours after Russia invaded.  With such a record of bad responses to military intelligence - why is he still the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?

5. For all the problems that we said the sanctions would be - the reality is that the Russian rubble is currently stronger than it was when this year began and the USA economy is suffering its worst inflation in 40 years.  Is there anyone that still believes that the sanctions are hurting Russia worse than what our economic policies are hurting our economy?

 

The Traveler

Military circles, and those who have been following US politics, have been pretty critical of certain higher-ups in the US military, as they seem more interested in their own careers and their ability to use their positions to ram-rod through certain social programs than in the military's actual ability to win wars. This alone has likely cost Biden the military vote, and has all but ensured we're not really in any position to be fighting a war. 

And as far as the sanctions go, Russia has such a stranglehold over domestic media outlets that the average Russian citizen doesn't even know what's going on, let alone why so many foreign companies are suddenly pulling out. 

[NeuroTypical]

11 minutes ago, Ironhold said:

And as far as the sanctions go, Russia has such a stranglehold over domestic media outlets that the average Russian citizen doesn't even know what's going on, let alone why so many foreign companies are suddenly pulling out. 

Yep.  My Russian contacts do an interesting thing: They oppose Putin and the war, ask people not to blame them because they have no say in their country's actions, and then they blame capitalism and America for everything.  The state-run media and educating have really done a number on them - they don't have access to enough information to understand what's going on.

[Traveler]

22 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Yep.  My Russian contacts do an interesting thing: They oppose Putin and the war, ask people not to blame them because they have no say in their country's actions, and then they blame capitalism and America for everything.  The state-run media and educating have really done a number on them - they don't have access to enough information to understand what's going on.

Just wondering - do you think we really understand more of what is going on - especially in foreign affairs from our media?  Some other examples, is climate change caused mainly by humans? and has climate change slowed down despite that there are more carbon emissions world wide?  Or what is the single most reason Antarctica ice is melting and temperatures are rising? (Answer to last question - increased geothermic activity).

 

The Traveler

[NeuroTypical]

3 hours ago, Traveler said:

Just wondering - do you think we really understand more of what is going on - especially in foreign affairs from our media? 

That is a fine point, even though I hate it. I was there in the 90s when the Internet became a thing. I remember how excited we all were. There would be no more disagreements or arguments! People would show up with relevant sources, everyone would read and learn, truth would out, and we would run out of things to argue about!  I am still mad things did not turn out that way.

That said, there is something to be said for a free and open society, with plenty of access to information.  Versus a nation where information is censored, media is state controlled, where that free access does not exist in the same amounts.

 Another way to look at it: yes, we worry about cancel culture, people losing jobs, even careers, for saying unpopular things. In Russia, they will actually haul you off of the street, convict you of crimes, and sentence you to prison time.

 There are differences.