The War in Israel may be at it's end.

[Phoenix_person]

Seems relevant.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-nuclear-deal/

[Traveler]

I will post a few more things.  I think we need to see how things play out.  I have some information from a fairly reliable source, there is some verification but only from biased sources.  Think of the scripture that - in the mouth of 2 or witnesses.

The top nuclear scientist with a few of his critical colleagues were killed.  This should be a setback – how critical may take a couple of months to ascertain.

The top 3 commanders of the IRGC have been killed and it is reported that several other top leaders are fleeing to some unknown place.  If this is accurate there could be a possible regime change in the near future.

At least 3 nuclear targets have been hit and damaged, including the main enrichment facility.

Iran has approximately 300 ballistic missiles left in their arsenal.  100 of which have been launched at Israel – maybe more as we speak.  It is likely that all the missiles will eventually be launched as the last attempt at showing force.  Along with the first barrage of ballistic missiles, drones were launched followed by two squadrons of fighters.  The drones were eliminated by Israel and the squadrons returned while still over Iraq.

Many Islamic countries have opposed Israeli’s attacks.  The two most significant are Türkiye and Pakistan.   The Houthis in Yemen launched a missile attack – two of which were off target and hit Palestinians.  Many Islamic countries have remained silent – most likely relieved that Iran is being diminished.  No one has come to the aid of Iran – yet.

So far, no US targets have been attacked.  I think it is because Iran is diminished.   I am waiting to see what kind of demonstrations will take place in the USA.  It may be possible that the threat of Iran will end before Gaza.   I am also waiting to see how the Democrats in the US support or take a stand against Israel.

 

The Traveler

[NeuroTypical]

On 1/15/2025 at 2:36 PM, NeuroTypical said:

We'll see what happens with Iran over the next decade.

 

October 7 2023 started this.  The coordinated attacks, death mayhem slaughter, rapes, and hostage-taking launched against a nation who's founding motto is "never again".   With funding/training/equipment/planning coming from Iran.  Gaza could have been a jewel with all the freedom and funds flowing into it over the last bunch of years.  Instead, they operated as an Iranian terrorist proxy and filled the land with tunnels and missile production sites under hospitals, and Hamas stayed evil and perpetuated itself. 

I stand with Israel, and I am impressed with them for having the national will to move to this next chapter, which is the only chapter with a hope in hell of actually preventing another O7 next decade.   

And holy crap - they also pulled a Ukrainian-drone thing, by actually operating drone launch operations from inside Iran. 

The future of warfare is changing.  The cost of doing things like smuggling semi-trailers full of semi-autonomous explosives-carrying  drones into a nation is dropping so low, that the number of nations and groups out there capable of doing it has grown ten, twentyfold.   

Random terrorist attack happening in my city - I'm having to reluctantly add that to my list of worries.  

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 11:56 PM by NeuroTypical

[mirkwood]

4 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Random terrorist attack happening in my city - I'm having to reluctantly add that to my list of worries.  

 

 

[askandanswer]

On 6/13/2025 at 12:00 PM, zil2 said:

I believe the war will end when the Mount of Olives splits in two.

Splitting mountains is not particularly difficult although it does take a bit of time. This is the sort of thing that Australian mining companies regularly do. All that is necessary for the Mount of Olives to be split in two is for gold, copper, or oil to be discovered underneath.

 

(Mount Tom Price, Western Australia, in the neighbouring mission.) 

[zil2]

I can see this from the roof of my house (can't see it from the ground because the other houses are in my line of sight)... (This image is not from the roof of my house. But it shows how massive the thing is.)

"The mine is the largest human-made excavation, and deepest open-pit mine in the world..." (per wikipedia).

I drive up almost to it every time I go to my PO Box.   (PO Boxes in Bingham Canyon are cheaper than those anywhere else near me.)

[Traveler]

On 6/12/2025 at 9:37 PM, Phoenix_person said:

Seems relevant.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-nuclear-deal/

Just a word of advice in case you are interested.  You ought to mark this source as extremely unreliable.   Why.  Because the enrichment of uranium is a long, delicate, tedious, technical and very arduously difficult process.  There are so many reasons, among them is that as uranium is enriched to plutonium 238, there can be reactions at the atomic level that will destroy the entire process - think Chernobyl.  The process must be very controlled and all the time human lives that are involved are at great risk.  Plus, as the enrichment process progresses the radiation levels go up exponentially – which means the process must be slowed down the closer one gets to weapon grade. 

What does all this mean?  The short version is that regardless of whatever the nuclear treaty was under Biden – meaning that the enrichment process did not go over 40% at the extream maximum necessary for non-weapon grade use to produce energy in a reactor.   There simply has not been enough time since Trump's secon term for Iran to be even 2 to 3 years away from weapon grade plutonium.

The only way Iran could be close to a nuclear bomb is if they were never even remotely under compliance during the Biden Presidency.  And whatever verifications that took place during that time, had to be a total and complete sham.   In addition, there are reports that Iran already had enough enriched weapons grade plutonium to complete at least one nuclear device. 

 

The Traveler

[Phoenix_person]

26 minutes ago, Traveler said:

Just a word of advice in case you are interested.  You ought to mark this source as extremely unreliable.   Why.  Because the enrichment of uranium is a long, delicate, tedious, technical and very arduously difficult process.  There are so many reasons, among them is that as uranium is enriched to plutonium 238, there can be reactions at the atomic level that will destroy the entire process - think Chernobyl.  The process must be very controlled and all the time human lives that are involved are at great risk.  Plus, as the enrichment process progresses the radiation levels go up exponentially – which means the process must be slowed down the closer one gets to weapon grade. 

What does all this mean?  The short version is that regardless of whatever the nuclear treaty was under Biden – meaning that the enrichment process did not go over 40% at the extream maximum necessary for non-weapon grade use to produce energy in a reactor.   There simply has not been enough time since Trump's secon term for Iran to be even 2 to 3 years away from weapon grade plutonium.

The only way Iran could be close to a nuclear bomb is if they were never even remotely under compliance during the Biden Presidency.  And whatever verifications that took place during that time, had to be a total and complete sham.   In addition, there are reports that Iran already had enough enriched weapons grade plutonium to complete at least one nuclear device. 

 

The Traveler

Trump killed the Iran deal in his first term. Biden never attempted to make a deal (and he's not off the hook either, to be clear). Those are the facts of the story, as reported by every news outlet that reports on such things. If you don't like my source, feel free to verify with one you trust. I do it all the time rather than automatically dismissing news reports based on their source. Heck, even if I DO trust the source, I still verify through other outlets.

I'll throw you a bone this one time.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trumps-withdrawal-from-iran-nuclear-deal-sets-off-global-reaction

Edited Sunday at 02:33 AM by Phoenix_person

[Vort]

Trump played the Iran angle almost perfectly. Love him or hate him—and basically everyone on the left and everyone in the media (but I repeat myself) hates him—any honest observer must acknowledge that his strategic handling of Iran, including his carefully calibrated policy of misdirection, enabled Israel to carry out highly effective strikes against Iran's research infrastructure. Whether statesmanship or gamesmanship, it was a master stroke, a shrewd exercise of international power politics. Had Biden (or *shudder* Harris) done such a thing, the left would have been falling all over itself gushing about the steely nerved brilliance of the plan, and with some justification. Expect no such concession for Trump. That would require clear-eyed honesty.

[Carborendum]

On 6/13/2025 at 10:54 PM, mirkwood said:

 

 

Is any of this being addressed by recent DOGE actions?

[Carborendum]

11 hours ago, Traveler said:

There simply has not been enough time since Trump's secon term for Iran to be even 2 to 3 years away from weapon grade plutonium.

While I have doubts as to Iran's capabilities, the 2-3 year window is quite long.  It depends on the quality, size, and quantity of centrifuges. 

The US (beause we have the capacity, funding, energy, and technology) could take naturally occurring 0.7% uranium and turn it into 90% weapon grade in a few months.  To turn it into plutonium would take longer.

Iran has made it clear that they don't care to turn it into plutonium.  So, it would be on the lower end of the scale.

That said, do they have the resources to do so in a couple of years?  I have no idea.  It's not like they advertize what they have.  For all we know, they have a squirrel running as fast as possible to turn a single centrifuge.

But there was that software glitch that we gave them during the Obama admin.  And I give him kudos for that.

[Carborendum]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet

Now, why would Obama want to destroy Iran's centrifuges if they were "only" using it for nuclear energy?

Hmmm?

[mirkwood]

1 hour ago, Carborendum said:

Is any of this being addressed by recent DOGE actions?

IDK

[Ironhold]

*bump*

For those who don't know - 

In the lead-up to Desert Storm, there was a massive spike in pizza deliveries to the Pentagon. There were just that many generals, staffers, and others staying late to work on plans, and so something had to give. Ever since then, people have monitored the amount of pizza consumption at the Pentagon as a barometer for activity levels. 

I'm hearing claims that pizza parlors nearest to the Pentagon are seeing yet another massive spike in business...

If these claims are true, then something's going on. 

[NeuroTypical]

Yeppers.

https://primerogueinc.com/blog/the-pentagon-pizza-index-behavioral-osint-national-security-and-the-geopolitics-of-takeout

It certainly spiked earlier as Israel attacked.  I'm hearing people talking that's its currently spiking now, but haven't seen anything definite. 

Trump leaving G7 early, showing up on camera bemoaning Iran's lost opportunity to sign the deal, and flat out telling Iran to evacuate Tehran, coupled with the months-long multibillion dollar repositioning of military assets into position, might also be an indication of things.  Or it could just be how T engages in dealmaking on the global scene.  A lot depends on Iran I suppose.

 

Related: 

UAE129 yelled "Leeeeroy Jenkins!".

Edited Tuesday at 03:47 PM by NeuroTypical

[NeuroTypical]

Oof.  Add T talking about "unconditional surrender".  

What's happening right now in Iran isn't just an Israeli/American thing.   Germany's chancellor defended Israel's attacks on Iran, expressing respect for the 'dirty work Israel is doing for all of us'.

The G7 nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US seem pretty united about it.

 

Antisemitism and anti-Israel notions are more out there than they've been in decades.  It's nice to see so many adults in the room understanding that blowing up parts of Iran is best characterized as Israel defending itself.

 

 

 

[zil2]

I have a friend who was born in Iran. He now lives in Canada, but has family in both Iran and Israel.  His comment to me was that he hopes the Israelis will do for the Iranian people what Cyrus did for the Jews 2500 years ago ("return the favor" was the phrase he used).  I have no idea what religion he was raised in, only that he's atheist because of all that he saw growing up in Iran. I don't press because it's pretty clear his childhood was traumatic.  His analogy seems right to me.

[Phoenix_person]

19 hours ago, NeuroTypical said:

Oof.  Add T talking about "unconditional surrender".  

What's happening right now in Iran isn't just an Israeli/American thing.   Germany's chancellor defended Israel's attacks on Iran, expressing respect for the 'dirty work Israel is doing for all of us'.

The G7 nations (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US seem pretty united about it.

 

Antisemitism and anti-Israel notions are more out there than they've been in decades.  It's nice to see so many adults in the room understanding that blowing up parts of Iran is best characterized as Israel defending itself.

I'm curious how much of the Middle East has to burn before "Israel defending itself" no longer holds water. They have a right to defend themselves, yes. But this rings more like Dubya invading Iraq to "defend America". How'd that turn out?

[NeuroTypical]

2 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

I'm curious how much of the Middle East has to burn before "Israel defending itself" no longer holds water. They have a right to defend themselves, yes. But this rings more like Dubya invading Iraq to "defend America". How'd that turn out?

Everyone has a different spin on things, even different spins given to different audiences for different reasons.

I'm as prone as anyone else to forget stuff over time, but after 9/11, I made a concerted effort to both pay attention and remember things going on.  

From what I recall, there were two narratives being pushed at me regarding why Dubya was going back into Iraq.   The administration's claim was full of "We're gonna enforce UN resolution 1441".  The jargon and messaging was full of words like "human rights violations", "treaty inspectors can't do their job", "WMD".    And the critical response from the Dems (and anyone else opposing the action) was full of "no blood for oil" and "no imperialism".   

Over time I've watched folks defending Dubya's 2002 return to Iraq dwindle down to nothing.  I think pretty much the last of it died out in the 2016 presidential campaign where Trump and Jeb "is it my turn now" Bush sparred over it.  Jeb was still defending his brother and the war, and T shocked everyone by boldly criticizing the whole thing and finally it was ok for people on the right to admit openly the thing was a mistake.

My efforts to pay attention and remember have basically culminated in a bunch of reading between the lines and concluding thus: 

9/11 was an attempt to embolden the Arab/Muslim world by proving the US was a paper tiger.  Americans responded by pouring billions into two decades of military response.  We bounced the rocks around in Afghanistan with our bombs, and did a regime change on Iraq, making sure the entire globe saw us ticked off and fighting back and finding people to kill.  As we left Afghanistan, our implicit message was "You wanna attack us again?  Go for it - we'll come back again and make sure every single one of you *beep*s lose another brother, father, cousin, or son, assuming we don't end you.  And we're gonna pick at least one of your nations to overthrow and occupy.  We don't even care which one.  Try us."

I'm not interested in defending any of this, but right or wrong, this is the story that makes the most sense to me.  I believe geopolitics can be effectively reduced to tales from an elementary school playground.  They came into our side of the sandbox bloodied our noses, so ten of us rushed all of 'em and swung and punched and kicked, sort of indiscriminately, until a bunch of 'em were on the ground bleeding and their buddies weren't looking so brave any more.  @Phoenix_person, I am not trying to dismiss or ignore the realities of warfare or the impact on our troops with this hyper-reductive scene.  ~5k dead and ~33k injured US troops demand to be remembered.  This just helps me understand why humans do what they do globally.

 

So yeah, a similarly reductive viewing of what's happening right now.  I took a little Krav Maga a decade ago.  Quite the introduction: the first day included an exercise where we students had a black hood placed on our heads, and when it was removed, I had to spend 2 full minutes punching bags held by the 4 people surrounding me.  That experience was sort of a reductive way I see Israel's view of it's place in the world surrounded by it's neighbors.  In other words: 

When comparing population percentages, October 7 2023 saw the equivalent of a dozen 9/11's carried out against a nation whos founding motto is "never again".  Israel gained the national will to try to settle things permanently.  First by destroying everything that had been built in Gaza and killing everyone willing to resist them, then by pager-bombing their terrorist neighbors to the north, assassinating the crap out of every high-value terrorist they could find along the way.  Now they're seeing if they have the will to finally end the source of it all - Iran and the Khameni regime and it's IRGC and decades-long proxy building effort to justify it's existence with the claim of 'death to America, death to Israel'.  America can come if it wants, but we're doing it regardless. 

Stay tuned to see what the next couple weeks bring.  

In short, the answer to your question is "as much as it takes until Israel doesn't feel like it's surrounded by people willing and able to kill them any more, or their national resolve ebbs to levels that won't justify further action". 

Edited 6 hours ago by NeuroTypical

[LDSGator]

1 hour ago, NeuroTypical said:

short, the answer to your question is "as much as it takes until Israel doesn't feel like it's surrounded by people willing and able to kill them any more, or their national resolve ebbs to levels that won't justify further action". 

Exactly. 

[Traveler]

3 hours ago, Phoenix_person said:

I'm curious how much of the Middle East has to burn before "Israel defending itself" no longer holds water. They have a right to defend themselves, yes. But this rings more like Dubya invading Iraq to "defend America". How'd that turn out?

The Middle East has been one of the world’s prime war hotbeds for a couple of millennia – even before the Christian – Jewish vs Islam conflicts.   Even if we ended all the Christian – Jewish vs Islam conflicts, Islam would be at desperate war with itself.  With the death of Mohamid, Islam divided into two opposing factions, Shia and Sunni, over the rightful heir of Mohamid. 

According to end of times Islamic theology, Islam must defeat all other religions and especially those that do not believe in an Abrahamic G-d.  Just so @Phoenix_person knows, this puts him personally higher on both Shia’s and Sunni’s list for death or submission than any religion or country – Israel or USA included.  For his own sake, @Phoenix_person should be most grateful for Israel’s current threat to Islam.

There is one other possibility – what is sometimes identified as the 13^th Imam will come with Jesus and unite the true believers in Christianity with Islam – everyone else will be destroyed.  

The one reason that a devout Muslem can live in a non-Muslem society is to endlessly work to bring about Sharia law in that society in preparation for the end of times.   I once asked an Islamic teacher (Shia teacher from Bahrain) about where on this planet anyone was living according to Sharia law or the closets to Sharia law.  I was surprised and dumfounded when he said, “The Mormons in Utah”.

As a side note.  Iran is looked down upon but the majority of Arabic Muslims because the Iranians are of Persian decent which is not considered the truly blessed descendants of Abraham.   

I have speculated that Israel is quickly approaching the last-days considered by both Islam and Christianity.  I thought that Iran might unite Islam against Israel.  Though these times may be leading to something – it is not quite obvious yet.  Or though it seems so.

 

The Traveler

[LDSGator]

20 minutes ago, Traveler said:

I have speculated that Israel is quickly approaching the last-days considered by both Islam and Christianity. 

I’m not saying you are wrong but every time anything happens in the middle east-a highly unstable area-people always go there.