Next Apostle?


P_Day
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When do you think the next Apostle will be called to replace Elder Hales? Who do you think it will be? Reply with your guesses to both questions. I'll start.

WHEN: I think they will wait until April Conference.

WHO: Soares, Christensen, Gong, or Aidukaitis

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I think it will be April Conference. 

Not guessing who it will be yet.  I suppose part of it may be that at this point, I don't really care who is selected yet.  Elder Hales death is still pretty recent.  He isn't even buried yet, so my interest is probably not in the realm of thinking about the next apostle specifically yet.

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9 hours ago, P_Day said:

When do you think the next Apostle will be called to replace Elder Hales? Who do you think it will be? Reply with your guesses to both questions. I'll start.

WHEN: I think they will wait until April Conference.

WHO: Soares, Christensen, Gong, or Aidukaitis

I love P-Day! Best day of the week!

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Top 30 candidates ranked by likelihood, even within tiers. All are General Authority Seventies unless otherwise noted.

 

TIER 1: Soares (P70), Christensen (P70)

TIER 2: Gong (P70), Robbins (P70), Causse (PB)

TIER 3: Kearon (P70), Gonzalez, Uceda (P70), Davies (PB), Waddell (PB)

TIER 4: Aidukaitis, Gavarret, Zeballos, Duncan, Perkins, Pieper, Pearson, Nash, Nielson, Alonso, Bennett, Cook, De Hoyos, Sitati

TIER 5: Whiting, Curtis Jr., Worthen (BYU), Maynes, Clayton (P70), Snow

TIER 6: 18 candidates. Unlikely to be selected, but have an outside chance.

TIER 7: 12 candidates. Very unlikely to be selected.

TIER 8: 37 candidates (including Henry J Eyring of BYU-Idaho). I would be shocked if anyone from this tier was selected.

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I believe a new Apostle will be called before Christmas and sustained by the general body of the saints in April.  I believe the new Apostle will be sustained at stake conferences that take place before April.  Who will be called is not up to me - never have I been contacted for my opinion - I see not reason to change with this current Apostle.

 

The Traveler

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On 10/7/2017 at 7:37 PM, Traveler said:

 

I believe a new Apostle will be called before Christmas and sustained by the general body of the saints in April.  I believe the new Apostle will be sustained at stake conferences that take place before April.  Who will be called is not up to me - never have I been contacted for my opinion - I see not reason to change with this current Apostle.

 

The Traveler

What do you mean "no reason to change with this current Apostle"?

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11 hours ago, P_Day said:

What do you mean "no reason to change with this current Apostle"?

No one in authority has ever asked my advice about selecting any past Apostle - I do not see that changing with determining the next Apostle.  In essence asking those - like myself - for opinions - is somewhat a frutless exercize.

 

The Traveler

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2 hours ago, Traveler said:

No one in authority has ever asked my advice about selecting any past Apostle - I do not see that changing with determining the next Apostle.  In essence asking those - like myself - for opinions - is somewhat a frutless exercize.

 

The Traveler

I posted this simply to hear some thoughts from others in the community about who they thought would be the next Apostle. I highly doubt anyone outside the Quorum of the Twelve has ever been asked for their opinion about who should be called as an Apostle. I believe that the Apostles who do make that decision are clearly inspired in their decision. However, I also believe that the Apostles are men who must study decisions out in their minds and then ask the Lord if those decisions are right.

It is evident to me from my analysis that a few criteria are relevant to the decision of whom to call as a replacement Apostle: age, length of service, and (to a much lesser degree) education.

Seen as an attempt to analyze the 'studying' part of the Apostles' decision, and not as a request for insider information, this post need not be a fruitless exercise.

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5 minutes ago, Sunday21 said:

Can we open a book on this?

And I saw a strong angel proclaiming with a loud voice, Who is worthy to open the book...?

And I saw the dead, small and great, stand before God; and the books were opened: and another book was opened, which is the book of life...

And Ezra opened the book...

And when he had opened the book ...

...it seems there's a scriptural case to be made for opening a book on this... :itwasntme:

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9 hours ago, laronius said:

Since there is an article in this month's Ensign magazine about really young Apostles it is quite clear that they are preparing us for a 25 year old to be called next. :D

Well, if they're tackling age discrimination in the selection process, maybe next they'll go after religious discrimination.

Would do 'em some good to have a couple Jews in there.  Maybe @prisonchaplain could get his name in the hat too.

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3 minutes ago, NightSG said:

Well, if they're tackling age discrimination in the selection process, maybe next they'll go after religious discrimination.

Would do 'em some good to have a couple Jews in there.  Maybe @prisonchaplain could get his name in the hat too.

Well there is that prophecy of the two witnesses who are raised up to the Jewish nation who would stand against Jerusalem's enemies during Armageddon....

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@NightSG and @laronius: Well...I did explain to an LDS inmate what a Triple was today. She wanted the D&C, and I asked if she would like to have a Triple, since it had the PoGP, etc. She agreed, and when I brought it up and showed her that it had three scripture titles on it, so it was called a Triple, she nodded and took it. With ministry experience likes that, why would my failure to undergo basic sacraments like LDS-authorized baptism have to get in the way of me being an apostle???  :cool:

Edited by prisonchaplain
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6 hours ago, prisonchaplain said:

@NightSG and @laronius: Well...I did explain to an LDS inmate what a Triple was today. She wanted the D&C, and I asked if she would like to have a Triple, since it had the PoGP, etc. She agreed, and when I brought it up and showed her that it had three scripture titles on it, so it was called a Triple, she nodded and took it. With ministry experience likes that, why would my failure to undergo basic sacraments like LDS-authorized baptism have to get in the way of me being an apostle???  :cool:

I can appreciate your question @prisonchaplain. First of all you need to see it from our perspective. We don't believe that these decisions are simply our leaders deciding who they think will do the best job. It is our belief that the Lord makes the choice and then inspires them to call that individual to serve in that capacity.

p.s. I take my hat off to you @prisonchaplain sounds like you are doing great work (even if you aren't a Mormon) :D

Edited by laronius
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2 minutes ago, laronius said:

I can appreciate your question @prisonchaplain. First of all you need to see it from our perspective. We don't believe that these decisions are simply our leaders deciding who they think will do the best job. It is our belief that the Lord makes the choice and then inspires them to call that individual to serve in that capacity.

p.s. I take my hat off to you @prisonchaplain sounds like you are doing great work (even if you aren't a Mormon) :D

Erm, you do realize PC was joking, right?  (PC probably knows more about the Church than half our members.)

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There have been 18 Apostles called since the Presidency of the Seventy was organized as it exists today (10/1/76).

The average and median age of those 18 at the time of their calling as Apostle is 60.0 years old. Only 3 were younger than 55 (Oaks 52.1, Bednar 52.3, and Holland 53.6; all of whom were BYU Presidents) and 2 were older than 65 (Cook 67.1 and Wirthlin 69.3; both from P70). If we look only at the 9 Apostles called by either Hinckley or Monson, the average age rises to 61.5 years old, with the median up to 62.9.

The average tenure as a General Authority or BYU President was 10.1 years and median tenure was 10.0 years. Only 1 had 0 GA/BYU Pres. experience (Nelson). If we look only at the 9 Apostles called by either Hinckley or Monson, the average tenure rises to 11.1 years, with the median up to 10.5.

All but 2 of the 18 Apostles have served in 'special' positions. These positions are a) in the Presidency of the Seventy, b) in the Presiding BIshopric, or c) as a BYU President. If we look only at the 9 Apostles called by either Hinckley or Monson, that number is reduced to 1 (Renlund; Nelson is the other and was called by Kimball).

As far as my research indicates, education is only minimally relevant. 11 of the 18 Apostles have 'advanced' degrees (61%). These degrees are a) MBA, b) JD, c) MD, or d) PhD. If we look only at the 9 Apostles called by either Hinckley or Monson, that percentage rises to 67% (Uchtdorf, Rasband, and Stevenson do not have advanced degrees;  Maxwell, Wirthlin, and Scott are the others without advanced degrees).

So what does all of this research tell me? It tells me that the First Presidency and Quorum of the Twelve look for brethren who have significant experience as leaders in trusted Church positions and have been trained to make critical decisions.

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